A few new state polls...

[millwx]

Some interesting new state polls...

Arizona (ASU/KAET... 377 RV):
 Bush 43%
 Kerry 38%
 Nader 2%
 Undecided 17%

Iowa (Research 2000... 604LV)
 Kerry 48%
 Bush 43%
 Undecided 9%

Kentucky (Garin-Hart-Yang... 504LV)
 Bush 49%
 Kerry 43%
 Undecided 8%

The AZ one looks fishy (not necessarily because of the results... but it's a Univ. poll with only 304 registered voters; and Vorlon's point about summer polls applies to all of these three).  Also, the KY poll was conducted for the Dem. Senate candidate... not that they'll twist the results to favor him - but I'm personally skeptical of polls like this; PLUS, I find it hard to imagine that Kerry is that close in KY.  The Iowa poll seems the most reasonable.

[© tweed]

New Hampshire Also.  (Zogby)

Kerry 49.5%
Bush 39.5%
Nader 2.2%

http://www.zogby.com/features/features.dbm?ID=212

[zachman]

New Hampshire Also.  (Zogby)

Kerry 49.5%
Bush 39.5%
Nader 2.2%

http://www.zogby.com/features/features.dbm?ID=212

Is that a different Zogby poll than the web poll released yesterday?

[© tweed]

Is that a different Zogby poll than the web poll released yesterday?

I don't know

[The Vorlon]

Some interesting new state polls...

Arizona (ASU/KAET... 377 RV):
 Bush 43%
 Kerry 38%
 Nader 2%
 Undecided 17%

Iowa (Research 2000... 604LV)
 Kerry 48%
 Bush 43%
 Undecided 9%

Kentucky (Garin-Hart-Yang... 504LV)
 Bush 49%
 Kerry 43%
 Undecided 8%

The AZ one looks fishy (not necessarily because of the results... but it's a Univ. poll with only 304 registered voters; and Vorlon's point about summer polls applies to all of these three).  Also, the KY poll was conducted for the Dem. Senate candidate... not that they'll twist the results to favor him - but I'm personally skeptical of polls like this; PLUS, I find it hard to imagine that Kerry is that close in KY.  The Iowa poll seems the most reasonable.

Garin/Hart/Young is typically a VERY good firm.  At 504 for a sample size, even assuming perfect methodology, there is only a 50% chance the "true" lead is within 3% of the quoted 6%

Additionally, a poll done for a campiagn typically makes a number of assumptions about turnout, and other factors,  Usually they are "what if" polls to project what a race would likelike if a candidates Battleplan was successful.

Research2000 is not a spectacular firm, but they are not too bad either.  A solid B+ firm.  I'd be inclined to believe that one.

377 sample size from a University.... Ok....

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Some interesting new state polls...

Arizona (ASU/KAET... 377 RV):
 Bush 43%
 Kerry 38%
 Nader 2%
 Undecided 17%

Iowa (Research 2000... 604LV)
 Kerry 48%
 Bush 43%
 Undecided 9%

Kentucky (Garin-Hart-Yang... 504LV)
 Bush 49%
 Kerry 43%
 Undecided 8%

The AZ one looks fishy (not necessarily because of the results... but it's a Univ. poll with only 304 registered voters; and Vorlon's point about summer polls applies to all of these three).  Also, the KY poll was conducted for the Dem. Senate candidate... not that they'll twist the results to favor him - but I'm personally skeptical of polls like this; PLUS, I find it hard to imagine that Kerry is that close in KY.  The Iowa poll seems the most reasonable.

Do you know the dates of these polls?

[millwx]

304 sample size from a University.... Ok....

I take it you share my skepticism?  :-)

Surprisingly, they look in the ballpark... "Battleground", but leaning Bush.

[The Vorlon]

New Hampshire Also.  (Zogby)

Kerry 49.5%
Bush 39.5%
Nader 2.2%

http://www.zogby.com/features/features.dbm?ID=212

This is one of Zogby's experimental online polls.

While I do believe that internet polling is the future, this is the present.

I am not saying the poll is wrong, but I am certainly generically skeptical of any internet poll, and certainly a Zogby.

Just as a point of reference, here are the 13 Senate and Governor's races from 2002 that I could find on the Zogby website.  The numbers speak for themselves.



http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=648

He may want to touch up his conventional polling methods before he jumps into any new adventures IMHO.

[Lunar]

Yeah, that's pretty bad.  

The "actual" in your governer's race for Texas is different from the Zogby.  Not like that, you have Mondale running

[The Vorlon]

Yeah, that's pretty bad.  

The "actual" in your governer's race for Texas is different from the Zogby.  Not like that, you have Mondale running

It's that damn "designated hitter" rule the Dems adopted in 2002 - New Jersey, Minnesota - used to be you knew who was on the ballot!

Corrected & Thank-you

[millwx]

Do you know the dates of these polls?

Gov Nick... fellow Marylander :-)

Yup.  The dates for the polls were...

AZ poll was May 20th - 23rd
IA poll was May 23rd - 25th
KY poll was May 19th - 20th

[ilikeverin]

How did Zogby have Roger Moe (Independence) & Ken Pentel (Green) doing?

[The Vorlon]

How did Zogby have Roger Moe (Independence) & Ken Pentel (Green) doing?

Moe was the Democrat actually.

Zogby polled Penny (the Independant )at 18, and he actually got 16

The Greens polled 5 and got 2

[ilikeverin]

How did Zogby have Roger Moe (Independence) & Ken Pentel (Green) doing?

Moe was the Democrat actually.

Zogby polled Penny (the Independant )at 18, and he actually got 16

The Greens polled 5 and got 2

Whoops! *thwacks head*

Pretty impressive though for the Independence...

*enjoys having a 4-party system*

[WalterMitty]

pssst....  hey vorlon, chambliss won in georgia.

[pieman]

How did Zogby have Roger Moe (Independence) & Ken Pentel (Green) doing?

Wasn't it Tim Penny not Pentel that ran as Indep. in the Gov race?

[ilikeverin]

How did Zogby have Roger Moe (Independence) & Ken Pentel (Green) doing?

Wasn't it Tim Penny not Pentel that ran as Indep. in the Gov race?

Yeah, yeah, the Vorlon already pointed that out... even though I listed Moe as Indep.

[The Vorlon]

pssst....  hey vorlon, chambliss won in georgia.

(note to self - learn to read, get tested for dyxlexia)

You know, this is the first time I have ever taken a hard statistical look at Zogby.  I just typically ignore him as just too eratic.  He is actually really bad in a lot of ways.

I have always known he is erratic, but when you put hard numbers on it it is kinda scary actually.

In his last 33 polls he has missed by more than 6% 12 times. (!)

I may replace his current logo in the polls section:



with a new one:



Yikes !

[Giant Saguaro]

The AZ poll looks like someone deliberately tried to show a best case scenario for Kerry. Maybe they polled the faculty and to even it out, weighted the business department heavier, I don't know. Kerry won't win AZ, only in a big landslide.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Do you know the dates of these polls?

Gov Nick... fellow Marylander :-)

Yup.  The dates for the polls were...

AZ poll was May 20th - 23rd
IA poll was May 23rd - 25th
KY poll was May 19th - 20th

Thanks!  These will be good additions to pollbooth.  Although I think I'm going to discard the Arizona poll...the sample is too small, and they clearly didn't push for leaners.

[The Vorlon]

Do you know the dates of these polls?

Gov Nick... fellow Marylander :-)

Yup.  The dates for the polls were...

AZ poll was May 20th - 23rd
IA poll was May 23rd - 25th
KY poll was May 19th - 20th

Thanks!  These will be good additions to pollbooth.  Although I think I'm going to discard the Arizona poll...the sample is too small, and they clearly didn't push for leaners.

Are you intending to include the new Zogby INTERNET based polls in Pollbooth...?  

[Nation]

Hey NickG, just checked out pollbooth.org -- very cool site. I'll be going to this more often

[muon2]

Do you know the dates of these polls?

Gov Nick... fellow Marylander :-)

Yup.  The dates for the polls were...

AZ poll was May 20th - 23rd
IA poll was May 23rd - 25th
KY poll was May 19th - 20th

Thanks!  These will be good additions to pollbooth.  Although I think I'm going to discard the Arizona poll...the sample is too small, and they clearly didn't push for leaners.

Are you intending to include the new Zogby INTERNET based polls in Pollbooth...?  

Vorlon,

I haven't checked the other threads to see if there was another comment on this, but the mayor of Chicago is Richard M. Daley (distinguished from his father Richard J. Daley). You may want to update your signature.

Also, If you are back from vacation - welcome.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Do you know the dates of these polls?

Gov Nick... fellow Marylander :-)

Yup.  The dates for the polls were...

AZ poll was May 20th - 23rd
IA poll was May 23rd - 25th
KY poll was May 19th - 20th

Thanks!  These will be good additions to pollbooth.  Although I think I'm going to discard the Arizona poll...the sample is too small, and they clearly didn't push for leaners.

Are you intending to include the new Zogby INTERNET based polls in Pollbooth...?  

I'm not convinced either way, but I'm leaning no.

Zogby said he was shocked that there were so few undecided voters in his internet polls.  But how many undecided voters are going to take the intitiative to take an internet poll in the first place?

[The Vorlon]

Do you know the dates of these polls?

Gov Nick... fellow Marylander :-)

Yup.  The dates for the polls were...

AZ poll was May 20th - 23rd
IA poll was May 23rd - 25th
KY poll was May 19th - 20th

Thanks!  These will be good additions to pollbooth.  Although I think I'm going to discard the Arizona poll...the sample is too small, and they clearly didn't push for leaners.

Are you intending to include the new Zogby INTERNET based polls in Pollbooth...?  

I'm not convinced either way, but I'm leaning no.

Zogby said he was shocked that there were so few undecided voters in his internet polls.  But how many undecided voters are going to take the intitiative to take an internet poll in the first place?

We really only have one guide post on these internet polls.  In 2000 Harris interactive ran one for the Presidential election and they just NAILED it - their final call was basically perfect - Gore up 0.6% (!)

Mind you, one poll is not a trend.

Harris is also far more committed to good science than Zogby is, so I don't know what to make of them either.