TX HD 121 - EMC (D) - Biden +12

[Boobs]

Link.


No numbers, but Biden leads by 12 in this Beto +0.3 district in this northern SATX burb district. Was Trump +8 in 2016.

[Hope For A New Era]

We keep seeing these polls of Texas congressional districts with massive swings toward Biden. Could polls of the state as a whole be underpolling Ds? We may be in for a surprise in November.

[lfromnj]

We keep seeing these polls of Texas congressional districts with massive swings toward Biden. Could polls of the state as a whole be underpolling Ds? We may be in for a surprise in November.

These are internals by Democrats. btw although Texas polls have underpolled Ds in 2016 and 2018.

[wbrocks67]

With these polls +the fact that polls have underestimated Ds in TX before, it really appears Biden can pull off TX.

[Tintrlvr]

We keep seeing these polls of Texas congressional districts with massive swings toward Biden. Could polls of the state as a whole be underpolling Ds? We may be in for a surprise in November.

1. They are internals, so worth taking with a grain of salt. (Even if they aren't intended to pump up Biden's numbers, they are intended to pump up the numbers of the Democratic candidate they were conducted for.)
2. They are for suburban districts where Biden would need to outperform a uniform swing if he were going to win Texas. Rural state House districts should see much less, if any, swing towards Biden.

[wbrocks67]

We keep seeing these polls of Texas congressional districts with massive swings toward Biden. Could polls of the state as a whole be underpolling Ds? We may be in for a surprise in November.

1. They are internals, so worth taking with a grain of salt. (Even if they aren't intended to pump up Biden's numbers, they are intended to pump up the numbers of the Democratic candidate they were conducted for.)
2. They are for suburban districts where Biden would need to outperform a uniform swing if he were going to win Texas. Rural state House districts should see much less, if any, swing towards Biden.

These have Biden outrunning Beto by *12 points*. Even if you account for an internal and not a universal swing across the board, it would still mean Biden winning TX overall.

[lfromnj]

121 was Trump +8 btw

[Skill and Chance]

We keep seeing these polls of Texas congressional districts with massive swings toward Biden. Could polls of the state as a whole be underpolling Ds? We may be in for a surprise in November.

These are internals by Democrats. btw although Texas polls have underpolled Ds in 2016 and 2018.

Yes, if the race tightens and say MI/PA/WI/MN are Biden+2-4 in the final polling averages while Texas is Trump +2-4, there's a not crazy scenario where Texas bails out Biden despite Trump doing as well as or better than 2016 in the Rust Belt.

[DrScholl]

This is an area where Biden would need to over perform in to win Texas and this number exceeds what he needs.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds are gonna do well in statewide races in TX, but Hegar is under polling Cornyn, that's why Biden and Hegar are still 6 pts behind Trump.

Beto hasnt done anymore good by speaking up for Biden in TX. Castro bros, not Beto and Hegar are the future in TX politics.

Dems are gonna regret like they did in 2018, putting Hegar in front of Senate race, like they did Valdez

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The Montoya campaign also is taking encouragement from the results of a poll conducted from July 28-August 1 by EMC Research, a California-based polling firm. It was part of an effort by a consortium, led by the Texas House Democratic Campaign Committee, to get a grip on where this state’s swing districts stand.

The poll of 406 registered District 121 voters showed Montoya with 49 percent support, compared to 42 percent for Allison.

[...]

According to the poll, 59 percent of District 121 voters have never heard of Allison and 67 percent have never heard of Montoya. (By comparison, only 1 percent said they had never heard of the Black Lives Matter movement.)

Just to get it out of the way, internal poll caveat.

Now for the State House. In 2018, Allison beat Montoya by around 8 points. This was the 15th closest race among the GOP-won seats and is also one of the 10 most competitive GOP districts by PVI (Using 2016/2018 national results).

I'd love to see how Sarah Davis is polling in HD-134