South Dakota

[nclib]

Gov. Mike Rounds (R) used to be listed as the safest incumbent. However, after he signed the fanatical abortion bill, his approval numbers fell 14%.

Is he still the safest incumbent? Should Democrats target this race?

[Alcon]

No, Rell is now safest.  And no, they should not.

[Alcon]

No, Rell is now safest.  And no, they should not.

That poll that had shown him dropping 14% was not from a creditable source. I know the people of South Dakota from visting there often, and they were pleased with the Govenors out of the box legislation opposing doctors sucking the brains out of babies through a murderer's "choice" (abortion)

That contradicts every single poll out of South Dakota on abortion, which have been shown as split.

Where in South Dakota have you been going?

[J.G.H.]

While he did drop in ratings, his are still acceptable at 58% if I remember correctly.  With the Republican tilt of the state plus the fact that his challengers aren't anything special, he is still safe.  But by all means, I urge Democrats to reaffirm their status as the Abortion Party and spend lots of money here.

[Alcon]

Here is, for interest's sake, a look at Rounds' changes among certain voting blocs.  It is worth nothing that this is not representative of the actual state make-up, but it is representative in the change in SurveyUSA's sample.  The detailed poll results are more accurate when compared to past poll results than when applied to the state as a whole.  This is change in margin among samples making up 5% of the population or more..

All: -29

Male: -30
Female: -26

18-34: -26
35-54: -36
55+: -22

White: -30
Other (mostly Native American): -20

Republicans: -18
Democrats: -46
Independents: -26

Conservatives: -7
Moderates: -41
Liberals: -52

Grad School: -40
College: -36
Some College: -26
No College: -21

(Church attendance)
Never: -30
Occasionally: -44
Regularly: -15

Pro-life: +4
Pro-choice: -55

It certainly did Rounds no favours anywhere (except among pro-lifers), but it would take a killer candidate, and even then, it would be a stretch.

[Gabu]

It certainly did Rounds no favours anywhere (except among pro-lifers), but it would take a killer candidate, and even then, it would be a stretch.

Of course, an interesting question would be what not signing the bill would have done.  I have a feeling it was a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" scenario.

[Alcon]

It certainly did Rounds no favours anywhere (except among pro-lifers), but it would take a killer candidate, and even then, it would be a stretch.

Of course, an interesting question would be what not signing the bill would have done.  I have a feeling it was a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" scenario.

It would have made Republicans mad at him.  Worst-case scenario for him would have been a primary challenge.  Best-case scenario would simply have been annoying the people who would end up voting for him in the General anyway.

[Gabu]

It certainly did Rounds no favours anywhere (except among pro-lifers), but it would take a killer candidate, and even then, it would be a stretch.

Of course, an interesting question would be what not signing the bill would have done.  I have a feeling it was a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" scenario.

It would have made Republicans mad at him.  Worst-case scenario for him would have been a primary challenge.  Best-case scenario would simply have been annoying the people who would end up voting for him in the General anyway.

That's what I mean.  It doesn't matter what he did with the bill; someone was going to get mad at him over it.

[Alcon]

No, Rell is now safest.  And no, they should not.

That poll that had shown him dropping 14% was not from a creditable source. I know the people of South Dakota from visting there often, and they were pleased with the Govenors out of the box legislation opposing doctors sucking the brains out of babies through a murderer's "choice" (abortion)

That contradicts every single poll out of South Dakota on abortion, which have been shown as split.

Where in South Dakota have you been going?

If you talk to anybody in South Dakota ( I frequent Spearfish, Deadwood, Rapid City, Sturgis, and the closer Yankton) and ask them how they feel about abortion, they'll give you a funny look as if they will kill you just for bringing it up.

I can believe that Rounds could get beat because most of the state is blue collar and populists but South Dakotans are pretty much in unity of their hatred of the slaughter of innocent fetus.

Any poll that says otherwise is fictional.

No offense, but your observations are not highly relevant.

With the exception of Deadwood, all the cities you have mentioned are more conservative than state average.  I have seen precinct results.

I imagine that asking strangers about abortion anywhere is going to get you funny looks.

South Dakota may be populist in some ways, but it has a palpable anti-government sentiment.  On some issues, the state is fairly non-interventionalist like neighbouring Montana.  They are certainly not socially progressive, but the state tends to dislike government involvement in personal issues.

Have you talked to over 500 randomly selected South Dakotans from various locations around the state, forming an overall representation of state demographics?  If not, I trust the poll more than your personal experiences.

[Alcon]

Trollcon, you lack what everybody else(except a handful)  on this forum lack. It is called common sense. I don't have to ask 500 people if sh**t smells to know it smells (except maybe yours).

You are correct. South Dakota is filled with enlightened intelectuals, most of them former or current college profesors, who wear sweater vests and argue philosophical quandries ,such as abortion ,at Starbucks all day.(sarcasm). Most people in South Dakota believe a womans right to choose is of the highest  importance, right next to banning firearms, and legalizing gay marriage. (sarcasm).

Oh.

Now explain again why the people you talk to, seemingly randomly, about abortion are a better sample than those in the polls.

[Speed of Sound]

Alcon, I know you have a pet peeve for troll,s even more so than most of us, but I honestly think that cutting off your limbs and eating them is a better use of your time than trying to talk to this guy.

[Alcon]

Alcon, I know you have a pet peeve for troll,s even more so than most of us, but I honestly think that cutting off your limbs and eating them is a better use of your time than trying to talk to this guy.

Probably, but I wanted to make a rant about excessive poll-bashing one of these days.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Perhaps Tom Daschle should have been lobbied to run against Rounds?