KS-PPP: Marshall+1

[S019]

So, some notes here after crosstabs digging:

First, Bollier's base is far more united than Marshall's: Bollier is winning 88% of Clinton voters and 10% of Trump voters. Marshall is winning just 74% of Trump voters and only 2% of Clinton voters. Given Trump got around 56% in 2016, this could mean Marshall's ceiling is in the low 50's, which has the makings of a competitive race.

Next, 11% of Clinton voters are undecided, which is around 4% of the electorate, based off of the current patterns, almost all of them should break for Bollier which would put her around 45-46%. So, the real fight seems to be over that last 5-ish percent. Also interestingly around half of 2016 someone else voters are breaking for Bollier, and these someone-else voters are around 9% of the electorate. Around a quarter of them are going for Marshall, so Marshall may pick up around two points, but having his absolute ceiling around 52-53% is still not a good place for him. Overall, a deep dive into these numbers shows some undecideds will break for Bollier, but Marshall should get enough, that he's still favored. This remains Tilt/Lean R.