KS-PPP: Marshall+1
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Author Topic: KS-PPP: Marshall+1  (Read 1943 times)
n1240
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« on: August 07, 2020, 08:20:45 AM »

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/KansasMemoResultsAug20.pdf

Marshall 43
Boiller 42

Aug 5-6, 864 RV, commissioned by Emily's List
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2020, 08:22:44 AM »

Oh my God, maybe Bollier can win even against Marshall. That would be insane.
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WD
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« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2020, 08:25:21 AM »

BUT MUH SAFE R RACE

MUH MARSHALL STRONG CANIDATE

MUH KANSAS WONT ELECT A D IN A FEDERAL RACE

MUH KANSAS HASNT ELECTED A DEM SENATOR SINCE THE 30s
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YE
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« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2020, 08:25:29 AM »

!!!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2020, 08:26:17 AM »

Will probably be 56-43-1 Marshall in the end ...
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АndriуValeriovych
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« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2020, 08:29:44 AM »

But Atlas told me that with Strong Candidate, Unbeatable Titan ROGER MARSHALL this race would be Safe R.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2020, 08:30:53 AM »

Kobachís supporters are still mourning. TheyĎll come home.
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WD
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« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2020, 08:36:42 AM »
« Edited: August 07, 2020, 10:25:19 AM by Western Democrat »

Also undecideds see to lean Democratic in this poll. 14% of Democrats are undecided and 26% of independents are undecided. Boiler has a + 20 approval among independents while Marshall has a -15 approval. This is a real race.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #8 on: August 07, 2020, 08:48:42 AM »

I still feel very good about Marshallís chances here. Also, keep in mind he just got out of a very nasty primary, whereas Bollier has been unscathed up to this point. Republicans will come home for Marshall, the demographics of the state make it very tough for a Democratic to win.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: August 07, 2020, 08:59:59 AM »

Will probably be 56-43-1 Marshall in the end ...

No
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MR. ANTHONY DEVOLDER
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« Reply #10 on: August 07, 2020, 09:21:48 AM »

Yep, still competitive!

Bollier must be doing amazing in Johnson County. I find it hard to imagine a more perfect fit for that area, so it comes as no surprise.


The big weakness she has is western Kansas. A big part of Kelly's win in 2018 was how dramatically she was able to close the gap in the western part of the state. With Marshall being from the west, that will be harder, so the optimal strategy might actually be to go all-in on the Wichita area.
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Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
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« Reply #11 on: August 07, 2020, 09:26:53 AM »

Will probably be 56-43-1 Marshall in the end ...

I tend to agree here. We need to see more polling though, especially with candidates closer to 50%. Definitely not great for Marshall, but he may have low name rec as we speak and undecideds of this poll in the end will heavily break for the GOP.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: August 07, 2020, 09:27:53 AM »

I still feel very good about Marshallís chances here. Also, keep in mind he just got out of a very nasty primary, whereas Bollier has been unscathed up to this point. Republicans will come home for Marshall, the demographics of the state make it very tough for a Democratic to win.

and yet she did in 2018
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #13 on: August 07, 2020, 10:04:30 AM »

I still feel very good about Marshallís chances here. Also, keep in mind he just got out of a very nasty primary, whereas Bollier has been unscathed up to this point. Republicans will come home for Marshall, the demographics of the state make it very tough for a Democratic to win.

and yet she did in 2018
Yes, against a Kobach, a very flawed nominee. Bollier would have beaten him this time around, too. Marshall is pretty standard Generic R, Bollier wonít get near the crossover support Kelly received. Also, when you boil it down, people will vote more partisan in Senate races than Gubernatorial.
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Woody
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« Reply #14 on: August 07, 2020, 10:16:04 AM »

BUT MUH SAFE R RACE

MUH MARSHALL STRONG CANIDATE

MUH KANSAS WONT ELECT A D IN A FEDERAL RACE

MUH KANSAS HASNT ELECTED A DEM SENATOR SINCE THE 30s

Bredesen led in the polls around August, and Orman was also being competitive/leading in the polls all the way over to election day. Yet they both ended up losing by double digits. You're getting your hopes over a race where Bollier is going to lose somewhere between 15-20 points.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: August 07, 2020, 10:24:27 AM »

BUT MUH SAFE R RACE

MUH MARSHALL STRONG CANIDATE

MUH KANSAS WONT ELECT A D IN A FEDERAL RACE

MUH KANSAS HASNT ELECTED A DEM SENATOR SINCE THE 30s

Bredesen led in the polls around August, and Orman was also being competitive/leading in the polls all the way over to election day. Yet they both ended up losing by double digits. You're getting your hopes over a race where Bollier is going to lose somewhere between 15-20 points.

The difference, is Biden is stronger than Hillary was and he said he will only serve 1 term, giving an open seat in 2024.

Hopefully, Eric Swalwell replaces Kamala Harris as Veep candidate
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #16 on: August 07, 2020, 10:32:55 AM »

Undecideds will break for Marshall.
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Xing
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« Reply #17 on: August 07, 2020, 11:24:26 AM »

I mean, this could be somewhat close, but keep in mind that this is an internal and itís immediately after the primary.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #18 on: August 07, 2020, 11:31:54 AM »

When Bollier starts polling at 47-48% I'll start believing she might win.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: August 07, 2020, 11:48:37 AM »

Why are we so excited over one poll, it's a competetive race
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S019
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« Reply #20 on: August 07, 2020, 02:32:55 PM »

So, some notes here after crosstabs digging:

First, Bollier's base is far more united than Marshall's: Bollier is winning 88% of Clinton voters and 10% of Trump voters. Marshall is winning just 74% of Trump voters and only 2% of Clinton voters. Given Trump got around 56% in 2016, this could mean Marshall's ceiling is in the low 50's, which has the makings of a competitive race.

Next, 11% of Clinton voters are undecided, which is around 4% of the electorate, based off of the current patterns, almost all of them should break for Bollier which would put her around 45-46%. So, the real fight seems to be over that last 5-ish percent. Also interestingly around half of 2016 someone else voters are breaking for Bollier, and these someone-else voters are around 9% of the electorate. Around a quarter of them are going for Marshall, so Marshall may pick up around two points, but having his absolute ceiling around 52-53% is still not a good place for him. Overall, a deep dive into these numbers shows some undecideds will break for Bollier, but Marshall should get enough, that he's still favored. This remains Tilt/Lean R.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #21 on: August 07, 2020, 03:37:28 PM »

I mean, this could be somewhat close, but keep in mind that this is an internal and itís immediately after the primary.

it's not an internal. It was done for EMILY's List, but it wasn't done for the campaign or D campaigns.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #22 on: August 07, 2020, 05:03:03 PM »

Still competitive but obviously youíd rather be the Republican than the Democrat here.
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Pericles
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« Reply #23 on: August 07, 2020, 05:15:09 PM »

It could be within single digits but I don't see it actually flipping.
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MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain)
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« Reply #24 on: August 07, 2020, 05:41:17 PM »

This would be close to a lost cause with Kobach. Marshall obviously makes it a way tougher race for the Democrats, but I agree that his chances are overrated (not necessarily because heís some "weak candidate" or whatever, but rather because people are seriously underestimating Bollier's own strengths as a campaigner, the state's Democratic trend, the willingness of many Trump voters/registered Republicans to split their ticket, and the impact of the national environment on this race).

I certainly donít buy that this race is Safe R but that IA is Tilt D or whatever. Itís going to be close, although Iíd also pick Marshall to win if the election were held today even if Iím admittedly getting ND-SEN 2012 vibes from this race.
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