Monmouth-IA: Ernst +3
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  Monmouth-IA: Ernst +3
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Author Topic: Monmouth-IA: Ernst +3  (Read 1783 times)
Brittain33
brittain33
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« Reply #25 on: August 05, 2020, 09:33:24 PM »

Wow, who could have possibly predicted this? Roll Eyes

Yes, itís not Safe R, and yes, I doubt it gets much better than that for Ernst, but given how much attention/Democratic investment this race has received youíd think itís a likely tipping-point race (which it... obviously isnít).

I mean, the RCP average is literally Greenfield +0.3. So acting as if this is even Lean R is being ridiculous.

Point me to an Iowa race since 2012 where Democrats have done better than their polling. Iíll wait.

Axne tied her RCP average, and polled -16 in September.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/ia/iowa_3rd_district_young_vs_axne-6379.html#polls

IA-GOV 2018 Polling off by 4%

IA-01 2018: Polling off by 5%

IA-02 2018:Polling off by 6%

IA Pres 2016: Polling off by 6.5%

IA Sen 2016:
Polling off by 2%

IA-03 2016:  Polling off by 10%

IA Gov 2016: Polling off by 5%

IA Sen 2014: Polling off by 6%



The only race where the Democrat was underestimated was IA-04 in 2018 and that was obviously a special case. The onus is on Democrats to prove that polls aren't wildly overestimating them yet again.

*shrug* you asked for a race, and I found one.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #26 on: August 06, 2020, 01:35:01 PM »

I don't know why everyone is acting like an Ernst+3 result is somehow an obituary for Greenfield. 3% is almost a tie.
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #27 on: August 06, 2020, 06:15:02 PM »

LOL at folks who think an Ernst+3 poll means the race is over.
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« Reply #28 on: August 06, 2020, 06:17:10 PM »

I guess the Senate is gonna come down to Northern Carolina and Maine

Unfamiliar with the state of Northern Carolina.
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