Monmouth-IA: Ernst +3

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1291027284007108609?s=20

[SnowLabrador]

Dammit.

[Pollster]

Very small sample size here, margin of error race.

[Brittain33]

Well, that's annoying. Welcome back, UTJE meme.

[wbrocks67]

Essentially tied with their "high" and "low" turnout models

In the election for U.S. Senate, Republican incumbent Joni Ernst (48%) and Democratic
challenger Theresa Greenfield (45%) are locked in a tight battle. Libertarian Rick Stewart earns 2%,
independent Suzanne Herzog has 1%, and another 3% are undecided. The race remains knotted up when looking at likely voters as well, using either a high turnout (48% Ernst and 47% Greenfield) or low turnout (48% Ernst and 47% Greenfield) scenario.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Outlier until proven otherwise

[Annatar]

The most important thing in this poll for Ernst is she is getting close to 50%, she is at 48%, obviously once you get to 50% you can't lose a race so being at 48% is important for her, also since Republican statewide candidates have outperformed the polling in Iowa 3 cycles in a row, 2014, 2016 and 2018, being up even narrowly as a Republican is a good sign in Iowa.

[wbrocks67]

Outlier until proven otherwise

Yeah, I just don't buy that Ernst is winning this. I mean, even Selzer had her up when things weren't even as bad as they are now for Trump.

[SnowLabrador]

Outlier until proven otherwise

Yeah, I just don't buy that Ernst is winning this. I mean, even Selzer had her up when things weren't even as bad as they are now for Trump.

I think Ernst might even outperform her 2014 margin. Polling in Iowa greatly underestimates the GOP.

[WD]

Yeah, this is a likely outlier. Remains a tossup until proven otherwise

[wbrocks67]

Outlier until proven otherwise

Yeah, I just don't buy that Ernst is winning this. I mean, even Selzer had her up when things weren't even as bad as they are now for Trump.

I think Ernst might even outperform her 2014 margin. Polling in Iowa greatly underestimates the GOP.

There's no empirical evidence though that would suggest that this race is anything but a tossup.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Partisan trends are ruling the day, AZ, IA, CO, ME, GA, NC will all be within margin of error

48/42 Trump tracking polls, TX is over

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I guess the Senate is gonna come down to Northern Carolina and Maine

[MT Treasurer]

Wow, who could have possibly predicted this?

Yes, it’s not Safe R, and yes, I doubt it gets much better than that for Ernst, but given how much attention/Democratic investment this race has received you’d think it’s a likely tipping-point race (which it... obviously isn’t).

[Gracile]

This is not an outlier when you compare it to national polling and apply it to where Iowa was relative to the nation as a whole in 2016.

[Roblox]

Extremely telling Trump consistently has a narrow edge in Iowa polling (a state where Republicans in recent cycles have over performed polling, no less!) even as he's losing by 8-9 points nationwide. Iowa's red now, no matter how "elastic" it may be.

[YE]

Two weeks in a row Mommouth lets me down...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wow, who could have possibly predicted this?

Yes, it’s not Safe R, and yes, I doubt it gets much better than that for Ernst, but given how much attention/Democratic investment this race has received you’d think it’s a likely tipping-point race (which it... obviously isn’t).

That polling outliers might occur during the 2020 election cycle?  I'm pretty sure everyone else figured that went without saying

[wbrocks67]

Wow, who could have possibly predicted this?

Yes, it’s not Safe R, and yes, I doubt it gets much better than that for Ernst, but given how much attention/Democratic investment this race has received you’d think it’s a likely tipping-point race (which it... obviously isn’t).

I mean, the RCP average is literally Greenfield +0.3. So acting as if this is even Lean R is being ridiculous.

[Brittain33]

I guess the Senate is gonna come down to Northern Carolina and Maine

[Brittain33]

I'm a Democrat, I'm not happy to see this, but it seems weird to consider JE *strong* when she's the incumbent up +1 on LV, +3 RV.

[Xing]

I don’t think Ernst +3 is at all an unreasonable number, nor is it out of line with the race being close. IA was always going to be hard for Democrats, and a win here would basically mean that 2020 is a blue wave.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Wow, who could have possibly predicted this?

Yes, it’s not Safe R, and yes, I doubt it gets much better than that for Ernst, but given how much attention/Democratic investment this race has received you’d think it’s a likely tipping-point race (which it... obviously isn’t).

I mean, the RCP average is literally Greenfield +0.3. So acting as if this is even Lean R is being ridiculous.

Point me to an Iowa race since 2012 where Democrats have done better than their polling. I’ll wait.

[Brittain33]

Wow, who could have possibly predicted this?

Yes, it’s not Safe R, and yes, I doubt it gets much better than that for Ernst, but given how much attention/Democratic investment this race has received you’d think it’s a likely tipping-point race (which it... obviously isn’t).

I mean, the RCP average is literally Greenfield +0.3. So acting as if this is even Lean R is being ridiculous.

Point me to an Iowa race since 2012 where Democrats have done better than their polling. I’ll wait.

Axne tied her RCP average, and polled -16 in September.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/ia/iowa_3rd_district_young_vs_axne-6379.html#polls

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Wow, who could have possibly predicted this?

Yes, it’s not Safe R, and yes, I doubt it gets much better than that for Ernst, but given how much attention/Democratic investment this race has received you’d think it’s a likely tipping-point race (which it... obviously isn’t).

I mean, the RCP average is literally Greenfield +0.3. So acting as if this is even Lean R is being ridiculous.

Point me to an Iowa race since 2012 where Democrats have done better than their polling. I’ll wait.

Axne tied her RCP average, and polled -16 in September.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/ia/iowa_3rd_district_young_vs_axne-6379.html#polls

IA-GOV 2018 Polling off by 4%

IA-01 2018: Polling off by 5%

IA-02 2018:Polling off by 6%

IA Pres 2016: Polling off by 6.5%

IA Sen 2016:
Polling off by 2%

IA-03 2016:  Polling off by 10%

IA Gov 2016: Polling off by 5%

IA Sen 2014: Polling off by 6%



The only race where the Democrat was underestimated was IA-04 in 2018 and that was obviously a special case. The onus is on Democrats to prove that polls aren't wildly overestimating them yet again.