KS-PPP: Trump+7

[n1240]

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/KansasMemoResultsAug20.pdf

Trump 50
Biden 43

Aug 5-6, 864 RV, commissioned by Emily's List

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

For reference, Trump won Kansas by around a 21 point margin:  56.2 - 35.7

[Tender Branson]

The favourable ratings in that poll (Biden -21, Trump +2) do not indicate such a close race.

Let's see what SurveyUSA for Election Twitter will show, but I guess it's more a 10-15% Trump lead.

[Suburbia]

Trump will win KS by 9 points.

[n1240]

Biden+19 among voters with at least a 4 year degree, Trump+20 among voters without at least a 4 year degree

[Podgy the Bear]

PPP doesn't show up in RCP averages, but they would love to put a Trafalgar poll seconds after it comes out.

A good poll for Biden but he won't win.  The big deal is what happens to Kobach voters in the Senate race.

[wbrocks67]

The favourable ratings in that poll (Biden -21, Trump +2) do not indicate such a close race.

Let's see what SurveyUSA for Election Twitter will show, but I guess it's more a 10-15% Trump lead.

Favorability ratings for Biden have been all over the place, though lower than you'd expect, mostly I think with a younger demographic that still is mad that Bernie lost so they find Biden 'unfavorable' yet will overwhelmingly vote for him.

[SnowLabrador]

The favourable ratings in that poll (Biden -21, Trump +2) do not indicate such a close race.

Let's see what SurveyUSA for Election Twitter will show, but I guess it's more a 10-15% Trump lead.

Not necessarily. Nationally speaking, Biden's winning voters who disapprove of both candidates by a pretty wide margin.

[Hope For A New Era]

!


I'd really love to see a poll of just Johnson County.

[Pollster]

We're going back into the field in Kansas for the first time in a few months on Sunday, so will hopefully have some broad generalities to share soon.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This just shows that Rs are in serious trouble of losing more than a majority of Senators. GA runoffs are bound to go D if Trump loses. MT is gonna get closer and KS is an open seat. Hopefully, Mackler, whom is a Persian Gulf II vet can get some momentum

[GeorgiaModerate]

We're going back into the field in Kansas for the first time in a few months on Sunday, so will hopefully have some broad generalities to share soon.

I realize you can't share too many details, but what's your broad sense of the race right now?

[Pollster]

We're going back into the field in Kansas for the first time in a few months on Sunday, so will hopefully have some broad generalities to share soon.

I realize you can't share too many details, but what's your broad sense of the race right now?

I haven't seen proprietary numbers since early June so I'm not extremely confident in this assessment, but I'd guess right now a comfortable but not resounding Trump victory. The path to a Senate victory is much narrower but still very much there. KS-02 will be a nail-biter (would have been a likely flip with Watkins). 

[Badger]

The favourable ratings in that poll (Biden -21, Trump +2) do not indicate such a close race.

Let's see what SurveyUSA for Election Twitter will show, but I guess it's more a 10-15% Trump lead.

I'm betting that was a typo that transposed the numbers.

[pbrower2a]

Freakishly weak for any Republican nominee for President in Kansas, which last went D in 1964.

The Senatorial vote looks to be decided by a razor-thin margin, which may be good news for Republicans who could have lost this seat more readily had Kobach won the primary.Putting Kansas in any category other than "Strong Republican" for either the Presidency or for the Senate bodes ill for the GOP.

I once quipped that Texas votes as if it were Kansas grafted onto Florida... that may be closer to the truth than I could have ever foreseen, and unusually relevant this year. .

[Progressive Pessimist]

Kansas is not going to flip, but these potential single digit margins are just about the next best thing, especially for the Senate race. Maybe Bollier can still pull it off after all.

[Alben Barkley]

[tagimaucia]

The favourable ratings in that poll (Biden -21, Trump +2) do not indicate such a close race.

I think this is flat-out wrong. Trump favorables matter a lot more than Biden favorables because voters treat an incumbent running for re-election much *more* (but not 100%)like a referendum than a choice.

If you’re as much of a nerd as me you can see this for yourself by taking any current poll at random and running a simple linear regression on crosstabs with horse race margin as the y and biden and trump favs as the x’s.  The Trump coefficient is generally 2-3x bigger than the Biden one! Another way of looking at the same principle— in pretty much every poll I’ve seen this cycle, Biden wins voters with unfavorable opinions of both candidates by a landslide.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Kansas President by Survey USA on 2020-08-09

Summary: D: 41%, R: 48%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details