Biden's best and worst case scenarios.
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Author Topic: Biden's best and worst case scenarios.  (Read 940 times)
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
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« on: August 06, 2020, 10:54:02 AM »
At this point? What would you consider his best and worst case scenarios?

Here's mine.

Best case:



Ohio was the state I was least sure of. Biden wins 352-186.

Worst case:



Minnesota unsure. Trump wins 325-203.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2020, 10:57:37 AM »
Best case:



Biden wins 413-125

Worst case:



Trump wins 326-212.

Note: This is Biden's worst-case scenario insofar as voter suppression/Trump shenanigans go. Biden's "fair election" worst case scenario is a 270-268 loss with Biden only flipping Michigan and Pennsylvania.
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2020, 11:06:44 AM »
Quote from: Chips on August 06, 2020, 10:54:02 AM
At this point? What would you consider his best and worst case scenarios?

Here's mine.

Best case:



Ohio was the state I was least sure of. Biden wins 352-186.

Worst case:



Minnesota unsure. Trump wins 325-203.

What?

In Biden’s best scenario, he doesn’t even win TX and GA?
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Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2020, 11:08:45 AM »
Quote from: pppolitics on August 06, 2020, 11:06:44 AM
Quote from: Chips on August 06, 2020, 10:54:02 AM
At this point? What would you consider his best and worst case scenarios?

Here's mine.

Best case:



Ohio was the state I was least sure of. Biden wins 352-186.

Worst case:



Minnesota unsure. Trump wins 325-203.

What?

In Biden’s best scenario, he doesn’t even win TX and GA?

Georgia is very close in this scenario. Trump wins it by less than a point. Texas is within 3 points.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2020, 11:11:35 AM »
Quote from: Chips on August 06, 2020, 11:08:45 AM
Quote from: pppolitics on August 06, 2020, 11:06:44 AM
Quote from: Chips on August 06, 2020, 10:54:02 AM
At this point? What would you consider his best and worst case scenarios?

Here's mine.

Best case:



Ohio was the state I was least sure of. Biden wins 352-186.

Worst case:



Minnesota unsure. Trump wins 325-203.

What?

In Biden’s best scenario, he doesn’t even win TX and GA?

Georgia is very close in this scenario. Trump wins it by less than a point. Texas is within 3 points.


That would be Biden's most average case scenario.
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2020, 11:14:48 AM »
Quote from: Chips on August 06, 2020, 11:08:45 AM
Quote from: pppolitics on August 06, 2020, 11:06:44 AM
Quote from: Chips on August 06, 2020, 10:54:02 AM
At this point? What would you consider his best and worst case scenarios?

Here's mine.

Best case:



Ohio was the state I was least sure of. Biden wins 352-186.

Worst case:



Minnesota unsure. Trump wins 325-203.

What?

In Biden’s best scenario, he doesn’t even win TX and GA?

Georgia is very close in this scenario. Trump wins it by less than a point. Texas is within 3 points.


Biden is leading in TX and GA in some polls.

Biden would definitely win then in his best scenario.
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YE
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« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2020, 11:17:54 AM »
In what world do IA/OH flip before GA and potentially TX?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2020, 11:21:36 AM »
Ran it through my model and this is what I got:

95th percentile of worst cases:



95th percentile of best cases:



Average Election (forecast):



Technically his very very best and very very worst case scenarios would be more extreme but these are in the "realistic" ballpark
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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2020, 11:22:45 AM »
Quote from: Senator YE on August 06, 2020, 11:17:54 AM
In what world do IA/OH flip before GA and potentially TX?
I don't have IA flipped first of all and second I'm in Ohio and it seems to me Biden can better appeal here than in either GA or TX but that's just me.
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andjey
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« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2020, 12:37:52 PM »
Worst case:

Trump 300
Biden 238

Best case:

Biden 438
Trump 100
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #10 on: August 06, 2020, 01:32:47 PM »
Biden's worst case scenario would be Hillary's map, with the exception of not losing Michigan.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2020, 01:48:44 PM »
0.01% best case maps for either side:

Trump:



Biden:
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Arizona Iced Tea
Minute Maid Juice
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2020, 01:58:20 PM »
Best case for Biden is the 413 map
Worse Case is 2016 minus MN NV CO ME-AL VA NH so 188
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catographer
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« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2020, 02:55:36 PM »
Best Case Trump Scenario:
Virus has substantially subsided, economy is on upward trajectory, Biden is nearly as unpopular as Trump.

Best Case Biden Scenario:
Virus continues and gets even worse, economy is in the dirt with no end in sight, Biden is decently popular and way more so than Trump.
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Bomster
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« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2020, 02:57:16 PM »
The best case Biden has is the 413 map.

The best case Trump has (which is worst case for Biden) is his 2016 states minus MI and PA.
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bagelman
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« Reply #15 on: August 06, 2020, 03:23:27 PM »
Best case:



Joe Biden 434

Donald Trump 104

Worst case:



Joe Biden 318

Donald Trump 220
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: August 06, 2020, 03:52:19 PM »
268 to 450, Trump is an R businessman turned Prez, he wasnt an original officeholder.  Voters show no allegiance to Trump like they did Bush W, Clinton and Obama
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