States’ largest cities that will vote for Trump.

[NOVA Green]

It is amazing that Atlas, with all of our collective knowledge, as well as "Tribal Knowledge" continues to ignore the terrain of the Cities...

Even smaller Cities in smaller States are frequently more representative of "swings" than State Level Polls or National polls...

Let's take a peak at the largest Trump City in Iowa in 2016:

Iowa: Largest Trump '16 City:

#4: Sioux City....   Tossup/ Tilt Trump[/size]

 US PRES GE Results from 2000 > 2016:



1.) NOVA GREEN pet peeve is when Absentee Votes are not consolidated into precincts at a County level....

2.) It appears that Iowa helped resolve this problem in '08 in order to create a greater level of granularity.... Iowa FF's live on, from the ancestors who fought and died in the Battlefields of the Civil War from Northern States, not to mention my German-American Ancestors who fled Germany after the failed revolution of '48 to come to the New World, and next thing you know as "Shoe Makers" are shoving their inventory up the "Dutch Ovens" as Johnny Reb marches North starting as a Provision Raid and feint into Pennsylvania... shorty before the Battle of Gettsyburg (Basically an Hour Drive from the road from Grandparents on my Mother's side)...

3.) Rant aside, it appears that Sioux City voted for Gore in 2000...

Kerry/Bush '04: Starts to become sketch because of distribution of votes, but still '04 "City Votes", even if we assign Absentee Votes heavily towards the City vs other precincts, looks pretty clear that Bush Jr won Sioux City by decent numbers.

4.) O'Bama was clearly popular out here in both '08 / '12.... Could be because he was a Midwest Populist Democrat with deep roots in both Illinois and Kansas...

So rolling at 52%- 53% DEM in '08 / '12 might have been an outlier...

5.) 2016 GE PRES number clearly indicated not only massive Obama > Trump swings, but additionally likely the highest performance of a Republican Presidential Candidate in Sioux City since Bush Jr in '04...

Haven't really spent time looking at the '18 Iowa GE Results, but quite frankly Sioux City will most likely be the "bell-weather City" when it comes to if Biden or Trump wins Iowa...

Thoughts all y'all?

[NOVA Green]

Iowa: Largest Trump '16 City:

#4: Sioux City....   Tossup/ Tilt Trump

So--- since I had today off of work, I thought I would go through and look at some other recent election results from the City...

Let's start with election results in Sioux City for CD-04 from 2012 to 2018:



Now let's look at a few other recent miscellaneous elections in Sioux City:



So--- a few brief observations:

1.) The 2018 CD-04 numbers theoretically could represent bad news for Trump in the GE in Iowa and the City of Sioux City.

A +16% DEM vote against Steve King, represented a +21% DEM swing from the CD-04 results in 2016.

2.) However, it should be noted that turnout was significantly lower in 2018, so it is difficult to ascertain how much of these votes were simply a significantly higher DEM base turnout versus PUB base turnout with Steve King becoming increasingly toxic even among many Republican leaning voters.

3.) The 2016 CD-04 results tell another interesting story:

Steve King's 2016 numbers, both in terms of raw vote and Republican % of the vote effectively mirrored Trump's numbers.

This strongly suggests that 2016 3rd Party PRES voters voted overwhelmingly Democratic for the CD-04 candidate.

4.) It appears that Trump's ceiling in Sioux City is somewhere around the 52% range, and also that Biden should be a massive net beneficiary of 2016 3rd Party PRES voters and that Biden is likely looking at a 46-47% floor in 2020.

5.) The 2018 Iowa Gubernatorial Election reinforces the point, and indicates that Sioux City tends to vote slightly to the Right of Iowa as a whole, effectively meaning that it might well be considered a bit of bellwether place when looking at how Iowa as a whole will vote in 2020 for US-PRES and US-SEN.

6.) The US-SEN results from '16 accentuate this point with Sioux City actually voting slightly to the Left of Iowa, in what was effectively a Grassley landslide...

The US-SEN results from '14 show Ernst slightly over-performing Statewide numbers...

7.) Recent state polling appears to indicate that Iowa is currently pretty much close to toss-up territory for both the Presidential and US-Senate race in 2020...

8.) Despite the '08 & '12 Obama PRES performance numbers, as well as CD-04 numbers from '12 and '18, I would still consider Trump to be a slight favorite here.

Running the additional numbers reinforces my initial assessment that Sioux City is a Tossup / Tilt Trump City.

Additionally, BOLD PREDICTION: If Biden wins Sioux City he will have won Iowa and most likely we will have a Democratic Senator representing the State once the new session of the Senate is sworn in...

[NOVA Green]

[size=12
pt]Michigan: Largest Trump '16 City:

#4: Sterling Heights....   Tilt / Lean Trump in 2020.[/size]

Let's look at the 2000 to 2016 GE PRES Raw Vote Numbers...



Roll the PRES numbers by % of Vote by Party...



Now let's look at how Sterling Heights voted for US-SEN over the past Decades...



Sterling Heights House and Michigan Gubernatorial Results coming shortly....

2018 numbers have mixed messages....

[NOVA Green]

Michigan: Largest Trump '16 City:

#4: Sterling Heights....   Tilt / Lean Trump in 2020.

So to follow up on my preceding post--- adding in numbers for

Sterling Heights--- US House 2002 to 2018:





Sterling Heights--- Michigan Governor 2002 to 2018:



So--- how to interpret all of this data?

1.) Sterling Heights has consistently had a Republican lean relative to statewide results at the Presidential level for every election from 2000 to 2016.

Bush won the city by 2.7% and 3.6% respectively in 2000 and 2004.

Even Obama significantly under-performed in both 2008 and 2012, despite winning the City both times but well below his statewide margins in Michigan.

2.) There is no way to read the 2016 Presidential election results in Sterling Heights other than as a total collapse of Democratic support, and unlike in many other places where 3rd Party voting was a major reason, here it is clear that there was a significant swing towards Trump and his brand of Republicanism.

3.) For Sterling Heights to flip at the Presidential level, it would involve a massive swing almost on the order of the 2012 > 2016 Republican swing.

4.) Overall the US Senate numbers from Sterling Heights would appear to be generally favorable for Democrats (With the exception of 2000), and indicate that perhaps partisan affiliation is more malleable than Presidential top-line numbers might suggest.

5.) On it's surface the 2018 Senate numbers could be construed as a possible sign that Sterling Heights is moving back at the Presidential level in 2020.

The overall total turnout was at a record level for an off-year election with 48.6k US-SEN ballots cast and a +2.5% D win in the City.

However, I am not totally convinced yet that this is the case, especially considering this was the worst result for a DEM for US-SEN in the City since 2000!

6.) The US-House numbers tell an interesting story, and perhaps also could be interpreted as positive movement in the direction of the Democratic Party.

     A.) From 2002 > 2010 Republicans effectively dominated the US-House vote within the City, winning by convincing, and in some cases overwhelming margins.

    B.) 2012/2014 proved better for the DEMs with redistricting and solid margins in CD-09

    C.) In 2016 we see Republicans edging out Democrats narrowly in the total House vote within Sterling Heights and the Republican vote share in CD-09 moving up to almost 45% of the vote.

   D.) 2018 was essentially very close to 2016, with some minor DEM gains overall but with the best performance for a DEM in the CD-10 portion of the City...

So on balance, it's difficult to see any clear evidence that 2018 US House results are indicative of 2020 PRES voting patterns here...

7.) The Gubernatorial results from 2018 perhaps might be the clearest indicator of shifts that might roll into 2020, considering that since 2002 generally Sterling Heights has been a Republican City (with the exception of 2006)... since these are all off-year elections it might auger potential bigger shifts within the electorate that could transfer into 2020.

Will it be enough? Do we really have sufficient evidence that Biden will be able to create a +12% PRES Swing in Sterling Heights in 2020?

At this point, I'm still gonna go with my gut that this is a Tilt / Lean Trump City in 2020...

[NOVA Green]

Indiana: Fort Wayne--- Tossup



Dramatic drop-off in DEM votes between '08 and '16 appears to have been a direct result of decreased Black turnout, plus White Boys & Girls voting 3rd Party...]

Lack of IN polls don't help but at min this would be a "Tilt Trump" City, but strongly suspect that in a Biden +6-8% Ntl and strong performance overall in the Midwest that Biden will win the City....

[NOVA Green]

So been on a vacation for almost a week now....   still thought it might be instructive to examine the 2016 PRES numbers in greater detail:

So here is an updated spreadsheet regarding official 2016 results by City / Municipality...







So...

1.) I inserted a new "Rating Column" to include predictions by City based upon National / State-wide polling, election history, and "fundamentals".

2.) I also attempted to in the PRES POP vote by Party using a Binary calculation, but not neglecting 3rd Party voters as # and %.

3.) I have independently vetted all of the Raw Votes numbers posted, but Atlas sources generally run their own independent audits, and we cop to it, even if numbers are wrong... 

Thoughts Atlas collective scrum???

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

@Nova

Are you saying that Trump has a chance at winning the city of Erie, or just that Millcreek is a part of the city (which I don't think it is)?

Hillary won Erie city by nearly 30 points.

[NOVA Green]

@Nova

Are you saying that Trump has a chance at winning the city of Erie, or just that Millcreek is a part of the city (which I don't think it is)?

Hillary won Erie city by nearly 30 points.

Apologies.... I have not done my own investigation of PA numbers yet, but I believe that the way the "original thread" from 2016 was setup was that folks could select city or township as the "largest municipal results"...

So Millcreek Township was the largest Municipality which Trump won in PA and Altoona was the largest City?

I have been working through my own lists to include historical results and not just '16 for places--- but haven't hit PA yet, so cribbed some notes from other Atlas Brothers and Sisters to fill in blanks here and there from this thread...     

PA or OH was likely next on my list, but also Louisiana would be tempting as well... side tracked with coastal vacation and all of the dramatic news over the past few days / week

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=272471.msg5816898#msg5816898

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Not surprised that our city is in northwest Iowa, the rural-Texas of the Midwest.

[NOVA Green]

Not surprised that our city is in northwest Iowa, the rural-Texas of the Midwest.

Looks like overall it votes a lot more DEM than "Rural Texas"....

Obama not only won it in '08, but improved going into '12...   ?!?

Looks like it went for Gore in '00 and might have narrowly voted Bush Jr in '04...

The 2018 CD-04 numbers here were wild DEM, but Steven King was already on his way out.....

Thoughts about 2020 in part of your backyard so to speak?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=386520.msg7599895#msg7599895

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Not surprised that our city is in northwest Iowa, the rural-Texas of the Midwest.

Looks like overall it votes a lot more DEM than "Rural Texas"....

Obama not only won it in '08, but improved going into '12...   ?!?

Looks like it went for Gore in '00 and might have narrowly voted Bush Jr in '04...

The 2018 CD-04 numbers here were wild DEM, but Steve King was already on his way out.....

Thoughts about 2020 in part of your backyard so to speak?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=386520.msg7599895#msg7599895

Sioux City, like a lot of Iowa towns, is far to the left of its rural surroundings. Although Sioux City may be fairly Democratic, it's still pretty right compared to, say, Cedar Rapids, Des Moines, or Iowa City, and its surrounding counties are very dark Republican on maps. For instance, here are IA-GOV 2018, IA-SEN 2016, and IA-PRES 2016 county maps, and take note of how deep the blue is in the northwestern counties, even Woodbury (touching the western border with South Dakota and Nebraska, fourth down from the Minnesota border), where the majority of Sioux City is.

[nclib]

@Nova

Are you saying that Trump has a chance at winning the city of Erie, or just that Millcreek is a part of the city (which I don't think it is)?

Hillary won Erie city by nearly 30 points.

Millcreek twp is in Erie County, but is not in Erie city, though it borders Erie city.

[NOVA Green]

Not surprised that our city is in northwest Iowa, the rural-Texas of the Midwest.

Looks like overall it votes a lot more DEM than "Rural Texas"....

Obama not only won it in '08, but improved going into '12...   ?!?

Looks like it went for Gore in '00 and might have narrowly voted Bush Jr in '04...

The 2018 CD-04 numbers here were wild DEM, but Steve King was already on his way out.....

Thoughts about 2020 in part of your backyard so to speak?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=386520.msg7599895#msg7599895

Sioux City, like a lot of Iowa towns, is far to the left of its rural surroundings. Although Sioux City may be fairly Democratic, it's still pretty right compared to, say, Cedar Rapids, Des Moines, or Iowa City, and its surrounding counties are very dark Republican on maps. For instance, here are IA-GOV 2018, IA-SEN 2016, and IA-PRES 2016 county maps, and take note of how deep the blue is in the northwestern counties, even Woodbury (touching the western border with South Dakota and Nebraska, fourth down from the Minnesota border), where the majority of Sioux City is.

Totally--- Grok all that---

Still, I'm looking at a scenario where Biden will likely only slightly under-perform Obama '08 numbers in many parts of the "Rural Midwest", including places from Fargo, Sioux Falls, Omaha, and Sioux City.

Biggest swings will likely occur in WWC Obama > Trump Cities:

Wichita KS
Springfield MO
Billings MT
Oklahoma City OK

As an Oregonian totally get the concept of difference between "City" vs "Rural" voters, so for example Coos Bay and Roseburg typically tended to be much more supportive of DEMs, even before Rurals started to swing hard PUB....

Currently IA polls show Trump with a narrow lead statewide...

How will Sioux City vote for PRES and US-SEN in 2020?

[Badger]

Michigan: Largest Trump '16 City:

#4: Sterling Heights....   Tilt / Lean Trump in 2020.

So to follow up on my preceding post--- adding in numbers for

Sterling Heights--- US House 2002 to 2018:





Sterling Heights--- Michigan Governor 2002 to 2018:



So--- how to interpret all of this data?

1.) Sterling Heights has consistently had a Republican lean relative to statewide results at the Presidential level for every election from 2000 to 2016.

Bush won the city by 2.7% and 3.6% respectively in 2000 and 2004.

Even Obama significantly under-performed in both 2008 and 2012, despite winning the City both times but well below his statewide margins in Michigan.

2.) There is no way to read the 2016 Presidential election results in Sterling Heights other than as a total collapse of Democratic support, and unlike in many other places where 3rd Party voting was a major reason, here it is clear that there was a significant swing towards Trump and his brand of Republicanism.

3.) For Sterling Heights to flip at the Presidential level, it would involve a massive swing almost on the order of the 2012 > 2016 Republican swing.

4.) Overall the US Senate numbers from Sterling Heights would appear to be generally favorable for Democrats (With the exception of 2000), and indicate that perhaps partisan affiliation is more malleable than Presidential top-line numbers might suggest.

5.) On it's surface the 2018 Senate numbers could be construed as a possible sign that Sterling Heights is moving back at the Presidential level in 2020.

The overall total turnout was at a record level for an off-year election with 48.6k US-SEN ballots cast and a +2.5% D win in the City.

However, I am not totally convinced yet that this is the case, especially considering this was the worst result for a DEM for US-SEN in the City since 2000!

6.) The US-House numbers tell an interesting story, and perhaps also could be interpreted as positive movement in the direction of the Democratic Party.

     A.) From 2002 > 2010 Republicans effectively dominated the US-House vote within the City, winning by convincing, and in some cases overwhelming margins.

    B.) 2012/2014 proved better for the DEMs with redistricting and solid margins in CD-09

    C.) In 2016 we see Republicans edging out Democrats narrowly in the total House vote within Sterling Heights and the Republican vote share in CD-09 moving up to almost 45% of the vote.

   D.) 2018 was essentially very close to 2016, with some minor DEM gains overall but with the best performance for a DEM in the CD-10 portion of the City...

So on balance, it's difficult to see any clear evidence that 2018 US House results are indicative of 2020 PRES voting patterns here...

7.) The Gubernatorial results from 2018 perhaps might be the clearest indicator of shifts that might roll into 2020, considering that since 2002 generally Sterling Heights has been a Republican City (with the exception of 2006)... since these are all off-year elections it might auger potential bigger shifts within the electorate that could transfer into 2020.

Will it be enough? Do we really have sufficient evidence that Biden will be able to create a +12% PRES Swing in Sterling Heights in 2020?

At this point, I'm still gonna go with my gut that this is a Tilt / Lean Trump City in 2020...

Just adding a reminder Stirling Heights Republican mayor has endorsed Biden, fwiw.

[NOVA Green]

Michigan: Largest Trump '16 City:

#4: Sterling Heights....   Tilt / Lean Trump in 2020.

So to follow up on my preceding post--- adding in numbers for

Sterling Heights--- US House 2002 to 2018:





Sterling Heights--- Michigan Governor 2002 to 2018:



So--- how to interpret all of this data?

1.) Sterling Heights has consistently had a Republican lean relative to statewide results at the Presidential level for every election from 2000 to 2016.

Bush won the city by 2.7% and 3.6% respectively in 2000 and 2004.

Even Obama significantly under-performed in both 2008 and 2012, despite winning the City both times but well below his statewide margins in Michigan.

2.) There is no way to read the 2016 Presidential election results in Sterling Heights other than as a total collapse of Democratic support, and unlike in many other places where 3rd Party voting was a major reason, here it is clear that there was a significant swing towards Trump and his brand of Republicanism.

3.) For Sterling Heights to flip at the Presidential level, it would involve a massive swing almost on the order of the 2012 > 2016 Republican swing.

4.) Overall the US Senate numbers from Sterling Heights would appear to be generally favorable for Democrats (With the exception of 2000), and indicate that perhaps partisan affiliation is more malleable than Presidential top-line numbers might suggest.

5.) On it's surface the 2018 Senate numbers could be construed as a possible sign that Sterling Heights is moving back at the Presidential level in 2020.

The overall total turnout was at a record level for an off-year election with 48.6k US-SEN ballots cast and a +2.5% D win in the City.

However, I am not totally convinced yet that this is the case, especially considering this was the worst result for a DEM for US-SEN in the City since 2000!

6.) The US-House numbers tell an interesting story, and perhaps also could be interpreted as positive movement in the direction of the Democratic Party.

     A.) From 2002 > 2010 Republicans effectively dominated the US-House vote within the City, winning by convincing, and in some cases overwhelming margins.

    B.) 2012/2014 proved better for the DEMs with redistricting and solid margins in CD-09

    C.) In 2016 we see Republicans edging out Democrats narrowly in the total House vote within Sterling Heights and the Republican vote share in CD-09 moving up to almost 45% of the vote.

   D.) 2018 was essentially very close to 2016, with some minor DEM gains overall but with the best performance for a DEM in the CD-10 portion of the City...

So on balance, it's difficult to see any clear evidence that 2018 US House results are indicative of 2020 PRES voting patterns here...

7.) The Gubernatorial results from 2018 perhaps might be the clearest indicator of shifts that might roll into 2020, considering that since 2002 generally Sterling Heights has been a Republican City (with the exception of 2006)... since these are all off-year elections it might auger potential bigger shifts within the electorate that could transfer into 2020.

Will it be enough? Do we really have sufficient evidence that Biden will be able to create a +12% PRES Swing in Sterling Heights in 2020?

At this point, I'm still gonna go with my gut that this is a Tilt / Lean Trump City in 2020...

Just adding a reminder Stirling Heights Republican mayor has endorsed Biden, fwiw.

So assuming you think Biden will win Parma, Ohio in 2020?

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

How will Sioux City vote for PRES and US-SEN in 2020?

Shoot...sorry about forgetting lol

Honestly, as someone in Waterloo, I don't know much about the politics of the Sioux City area, or even West Iowa in general. However, with what I do know, it might be lean or tilt D, but don't expect a landslide, and don't set yourself up to any expectations. Woodbury, the county that houses most of the city, is a very swingy county which, with the exceptions of 1992 and 2000, has predicted the statewide winner of every presidential election in Iowa since 1948, when we cast our then 10 electoral votes for Harry Truman. Ignoring 1940 and 1944 as well, it's predicted the state's winners since 1920, giving 13 votes to Warren Harding. Oh yeah, and it's also the only McCain-Obama county in the state.

Don't take my word on this though. But still, Woodbury is an interesting county.

[NOVA Green]

Ohio--- City #7--- Parma largest City in Ohio for vote for President Trump in 2016:

Here are the PRES numbers from '04 > '16...




Haven't run US-SEN, OH-GOV, and US-REP numbers, but looks to my immediate assessment as a Biden 2020 City...

Still def a City where there was a massive swing towards Trump in  '16 regardless of 3rd Party Voters and massively decreased / suppression of DEM voters in '16....

Considering OH State polls look like a tossup, I would consider Parma to be a Tilt / Lean Biden City at the minimum....

Thoughts anyone?

[NOVA Green]

Ohio--- City #7--- Parma largest City in Ohio for vote for President Trump in 2016:

Here are the PRES numbers from '04 > '16...




Haven't run US-SEN, OH-GOV, and US-REP numbers, but looks to my immediate assessment as a Biden 2020 City...

Still def a City where there was a massive swing towards Trump in  '16 regardless of 3rd Party Voters and massively decreased / suppression of DEM voters in '16....

Considering OH State polls look like a tossup, I would consider Parma to be a Tilt / Lean Biden City at the minimum....

Thoughts anyone?

So follow-up on Parma--- looks like a place where Joe Biden will likely improve dramatically...

Overwhelmingly White Catholic European Ethnic Ancestry...

18% Polish, 15% Italian, 14% Irish....

Def seems like a WWC part of Ohio which will flip Biden (Quite possibly hard in 2020)....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parma,_Ohio

[Chips]

Ohio--- City #7--- Parma largest City in Ohio for vote for President Trump in 2016:

Here are the PRES numbers from '04 > '16...




Haven't run US-SEN, OH-GOV, and US-REP numbers, but looks to my immediate assessment as a Biden 2020 City...

Still def a City where there was a massive swing towards Trump in  '16 regardless of 3rd Party Voters and massively decreased / suppression of DEM voters in '16....

Considering OH State polls look like a tossup, I would consider Parma to be a Tilt / Lean Biden City at the minimum....

Thoughts anyone?

I'd say Parma is a toss-up. That was a 4% margin of victory for Trump in 2016.

[NOVA Green]

Ohio--- City #7--- Parma largest City in Ohio for vote for President Trump in 2016:

Here are the PRES numbers from '04 > '16...




Haven't run US-SEN, OH-GOV, and US-REP numbers, but looks to my immediate assessment as a Biden 2020 City...

Still def a City where there was a massive swing towards Trump in  '16 regardless of 3rd Party Voters and massively decreased / suppression of DEM voters in '16....

Considering OH State polls look like a tossup, I would consider Parma to be a Tilt / Lean Biden City at the minimum....

Thoughts anyone?

I'd say Parma is a toss-up. That was a 4% margin of victory for Trump in 2016.

Chips--- thanks for your insight. Naturally we gotta dig deeper.

Can pull up additional municipal level results if you would like or source to pull them up yourself for various non-pres elections,

Full confession. Lived in the Buckeye State while going to College as a homesick Oregon Boy at the Tender Age of (17) way back in the early mid '90s.

This would be more Central / Southwest Ohio Country.

Although naturally over the Years gradually spent time in NE OH, but it wasn't anywhere close to my backyard, from Metro Cinci, Dayton, Columbus and all of the Factory Towns in between, without even going into places like East Liverpool.

Been to College Towns in OH, both Public, Private, and Religious Schools.

Still places like this are a bit of a mystery to me, considering it's literally been a couple decades since "I was a Boy in Ohio".

I hope and suspect that the vast majority of Atlas / TE Posters recognize that "demographics are not destiny", and that "Universal Swings" do not exist, and that additionally we can't simply do a compare & contrast of a preceding election simply looking at the topline numbers from just one election to another to create our own "jump to conclusion maps".

I suspect you might be slightly conservative with your predictions, but you got some boots on the ground, although Metro Cleveland is it's own bag, esp with a City like Parma.   

So now that we have eliminated any potential Trollers from a serious thread, time for a bit of tunes, which was actually a song I listened to much more than the CSNY song when I first moved to Ohio homesick for Oregon....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqnEqExyFkA

[NOVA Green]

Bump...

For anyone looking at making last minute predictions... apologies for not getting around to run detailed numbers on every of the largest Trump City per State.   

[mileslunn]

Trump ended up winning Orland Township by 13 points.  Larger than his 2016 victory and even more than Romney's 2012 margin.  Certainly his largest municipality victory in Illinois.

Interesting to see how it has diverged from demographically similar areas in DuPage County.

Did he or does it still have many outstanding ballots?  In Illinois, places with few outstanding ballots, Trump is either flat or gap widening.  Places where it narrowed are mostly places with still many ballots to count and we know mail in tend to heavily favour Biden.

[Gracile]

Trump ended up winning Orland Township by 13 points.  Larger than his 2016 victory and even more than Romney's 2012 margin.  Certainly his largest municipality victory in Illinois.

Interesting to see how it has diverged from demographically similar areas in DuPage County.

Did he or does it still have many outstanding ballots?  In Illinois, places with few outstanding ballots, Trump is either flat or gap widening.  Places where it narrowed are mostly places with still many ballots to count and we know mail in tend to heavily favour Biden.

Yes, the ballots in IL have been breaking heavily Democratic (especially in Cook which has a huge backlog of VBM still). Trump is now ahead in Orland Township 52.87%-45.67% - slightly ahead of 2016 - but Biden can very likely narrow that.

[Green Line]

I don't know if these results are 100% final, but they look to be close to it since turnout is well over 2016.  Could I wait until the results are certified?  Yeah, but I'm bored.

Trump winning Orland Township 51 - 48 atm.  3 point swing to Biden from 2016 (it was 51-45).  Orland Park will likely just barely hang on to its title as the largest GOP municipality in Illinois, but this year we might have to dive deeper into the precinct results to confirm.  The non-Orland, southeastern part of the township has historically been Dem leaning, but it is also the most downscale working class part.

Interestingly, Biden won Barrington Township, in NW Cook County, narrowly.  Historically, Barrington  has been the most GOP leaning.  It voted for McCain by 16 points.  That distinction now goes to Lemont Township, which is culturally and geographically far removed from the rest of Cook.  If you drove there, you might think that you had left the state.  Also, Palos Township voted to the right of Orland Township.  First time that has happened from as far back as I can find results.

[nclib]

Now that DRA has city data, this is much easier. In NC, it's Gastonia.