States’ largest cities that will vote for Trump.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Alabama: Mobile
Alaska: If Biden wins Anchorage then Fairbanks by default.
Arizona: Mesa. Easy.
Arkansas: Fort Smith
California: I'm going to assume Bakersfield.
Colorado: Colorado Springs of course.
Connecticut: ...I have no idea.
Delaware: Uh, Seaford?
Florida: Hialeah
Georgia: Sandy Springs
Hawaii: none
Idaho: Meridian
Indiana: Fort Wayne
Illinois: Orland Park
Iowa: Probably not Sioux City actually. So Council Bluffs? If not there then Ankeny.
Kansas: Wichita is a possibility, but if not then...Hutchinson
Kentucky: Bowling Green
Louisiana: Lafayette?
Maine: no idea
Maryland: Cumberland apparently.
Massachusetts: Totally beats me.
Michigan: Sterling Heights, or Livonia if Biden pulls that off.
Minnesota: Lakeville as stated.
Mississippi: Gulfport
Missouri: Springfield
Montana: Billings
Nebraska: Bellevue
Nevada: Boulder City
New Hampshire: Derry
New Jersey: Toms River?
New Mexico: I honestly don't know enough about the geography here.
New York: One of those Long Island "towns". Don't know enough to say which one.
North Carolina: Probably Concord
North Dakota: Since NDSU classes are in session I bet Biden takes Fargo, so right here in Bismarck.
Ohio: Hamilton
Oklahoma: Tulsa
Oregon: Medford?
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Rhode Island: ...no clue
South Carolina: Mount Pleasant
South Dakota: Going to be optimistic and say Rapid City
Tennessee: Did Trump win Knoxville proper? If so then there.
Texas: Plano, or Lubbock if Biden can even win that.
Utah: Provo
Vermont: ...yeah totally beats me.
Virginia: I don't think Trump takes Chesapeake or Virginia Beach, so Lynchburg.
Washington: Yakima
West Virginia: Charleston
Wisconsin: Waukesha
Wyoming: Cheyenne

[mileslunn]

Alabama: Mobile
Alaska: If Biden wins Anchorage then Fairbanks by default.
Arizona: Mesa. Easy.
Arkansas: Fort Smith
California: I'm going to assume Bakersfield.
Colorado: Colorado Springs of course.
Connecticut: ...I have no idea.
Delaware: Uh, Seaford?
Florida: Hialeah
Georgia: Sandy Springs
Hawaii: none
Idaho: Meridian
Indiana: Fort Wayne
Iowa: Probably not Sioux City actually. So Council Bluffs? If not there then Ankeny.
Kansas: Wichita is a possibility, but if not then...Hutchinson
Louisiana: Lafayette?
Maine: no idea
Maryland: Cumberland apparently.
Massachusetts: Totally beats me.
Michigan: Sterling Heights, or Livonia if Biden pulls that off.
Minnesota: Lakeville as stated.
Mississippi: Gulfport
Missouri: Springfield
Montana: Billings
Nebraska: Bellevue
Nevada: Boulder City
New Hampshire: Derry
New Jersey: Toms River?
New Mexico: I honestly don't know enough about the geography here.
New York: One of those Long Island "towns". Don't know enough to say which one.
North Carolina: Probably Concord
North Dakota: Since NDSU classes are in session I bet Biden takes Fargo, so right here in Bismarck.
Ohio: Hamilton
Oklahoma: Tulsa
Oregon: Medford?
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Rhode Island: ...no clue
South Carolina: Mount Pleasant
South Dakota: Going to be optimistic and say Rapid City
Tennessee: Did Trump win Knoxville proper? If so then there.
Texas: Plano, or Lubbock if Biden can even win that.
Utah: Provo
Vermont: ...yeah totally beats me.
Virginia: I don't think Trump takes Chesapeake or Virginia Beach, so Lynchburg.
Washington: Yakima
West Virginia: Charleston
Wisconsin: Waukesha
Wyoming: Cheyenne

Clinton won Charleston, West Virginia by pretty decent margin despite losing county by 10 points so won't be it for West Virginia.  Probably Parkersburg for West Virginia.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Alabama: Mobile
Alaska: If Biden wins Anchorage then Fairbanks by default.
Arizona: Mesa. Easy.
Arkansas: Fort Smith
California: I'm going to assume Bakersfield.
Colorado: Colorado Springs of course.
Connecticut: ...I have no idea.
Delaware: Uh, Seaford?
Florida: Hialeah
Georgia: Sandy Springs
Hawaii: none
Idaho: Meridian
Indiana: Fort Wayne
Iowa: Probably not Sioux City actually. So Council Bluffs? If not there then Ankeny.
Kansas: Wichita is a possibility, but if not then...Hutchinson
Louisiana: Lafayette?
Maine: no idea
Maryland: Cumberland apparently.
Massachusetts: Totally beats me.
Michigan: Sterling Heights, or Livonia if Biden pulls that off.
Minnesota: Lakeville as stated.
Mississippi: Gulfport
Missouri: Springfield
Montana: Billings
Nebraska: Bellevue
Nevada: Boulder City
New Hampshire: Derry
New Jersey: Toms River?
New Mexico: I honestly don't know enough about the geography here.
New York: One of those Long Island "towns". Don't know enough to say which one.
North Carolina: Probably Concord
North Dakota: Since NDSU classes are in session I bet Biden takes Fargo, so right here in Bismarck.
Ohio: Hamilton
Oklahoma: Tulsa
Oregon: Medford?
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Rhode Island: ...no clue
South Carolina: Mount Pleasant
South Dakota: Going to be optimistic and say Rapid City
Tennessee: Did Trump win Knoxville proper? If so then there.
Texas: Plano, or Lubbock if Biden can even win that.
Utah: Provo
Vermont: ...yeah totally beats me.
Virginia: I don't think Trump takes Chesapeake or Virginia Beach, so Lynchburg.
Washington: Yakima
West Virginia: Charleston
Wisconsin: Waukesha
Wyoming: Cheyenne

Mobile pretty clearly voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Charleston, WV too, as mileslunn stated.
So I don't see how they go to Trump this time.

Also:
Trump lost Sandy Springs by double digits in 2016! He won Roswell, though.
Knoxville's precincts are messy, but it seems that Trump at most won very narrowly in 2016.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Alabama: Mobile
Alaska: If Biden wins Anchorage then Fairbanks by default.
Arizona: Mesa. Easy.
Arkansas: Fort Smith
California: I'm going to assume Bakersfield.
Colorado: Colorado Springs of course.
Connecticut: ...I have no idea.
Delaware: Uh, Seaford?
Florida: Hialeah
Georgia: Sandy Springs
Hawaii: none
Idaho: Meridian
Indiana: Fort Wayne
Iowa: Probably not Sioux City actually. So Council Bluffs? If not there then Ankeny.
Kansas: Wichita is a possibility, but if not then...Hutchinson
Louisiana: Lafayette?
Maine: no idea
Maryland: Cumberland apparently.
Massachusetts: Totally beats me.
Michigan: Sterling Heights, or Livonia if Biden pulls that off.
Minnesota: Lakeville as stated.
Mississippi: Gulfport
Missouri: Springfield
Montana: Billings
Nebraska: Bellevue
Nevada: Boulder City
New Hampshire: Derry
New Jersey: Toms River?
New Mexico: I honestly don't know enough about the geography here.
New York: One of those Long Island "towns". Don't know enough to say which one.
North Carolina: Probably Concord
North Dakota: Since NDSU classes are in session I bet Biden takes Fargo, so right here in Bismarck.
Ohio: Hamilton
Oklahoma: Tulsa
Oregon: Medford?
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Rhode Island: ...no clue
South Carolina: Mount Pleasant
South Dakota: Going to be optimistic and say Rapid City
Tennessee: Did Trump win Knoxville proper? If so then there.
Texas: Plano, or Lubbock if Biden can even win that.
Utah: Provo
Vermont: ...yeah totally beats me.
Virginia: I don't think Trump takes Chesapeake or Virginia Beach, so Lynchburg.
Washington: Yakima
West Virginia: Charleston
Wisconsin: Waukesha
Wyoming: Cheyenne

Mobile pretty clearly voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Charleston, WV too, as mileslunn stated.
So I don't see how they go to Trump this time.

Mobile is way more black than I thought apparently.

So Huntsville most likely.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Alabama: Mobile
Alaska: If Biden wins Anchorage then Fairbanks by default.
Arizona: Mesa. Easy.
Arkansas: Fort Smith
California: I'm going to assume Bakersfield.
Colorado: Colorado Springs of course.
Connecticut: ...I have no idea.
Delaware: Uh, Seaford?
Florida: Hialeah
Georgia: Sandy Springs
Hawaii: none
Idaho: Meridian
Indiana: Fort Wayne
Iowa: Probably not Sioux City actually. So Council Bluffs? If not there then Ankeny.
Kansas: Wichita is a possibility, but if not then...Hutchinson
Louisiana: Lafayette?
Maine: no idea
Maryland: Cumberland apparently.
Massachusetts: Totally beats me.
Michigan: Sterling Heights, or Livonia if Biden pulls that off.
Minnesota: Lakeville as stated.
Mississippi: Gulfport
Missouri: Springfield
Montana: Billings
Nebraska: Bellevue
Nevada: Boulder City
New Hampshire: Derry
New Jersey: Toms River?
New Mexico: I honestly don't know enough about the geography here.
New York: One of those Long Island "towns". Don't know enough to say which one.
North Carolina: Probably Concord
North Dakota: Since NDSU classes are in session I bet Biden takes Fargo, so right here in Bismarck.
Ohio: Hamilton
Oklahoma: Tulsa
Oregon: Medford?
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Rhode Island: ...no clue
South Carolina: Mount Pleasant
South Dakota: Going to be optimistic and say Rapid City
Tennessee: Did Trump win Knoxville proper? If so then there.
Texas: Plano, or Lubbock if Biden can even win that.
Utah: Provo
Vermont: ...yeah totally beats me.
Virginia: I don't think Trump takes Chesapeake or Virginia Beach, so Lynchburg.
Washington: Yakima
West Virginia: Charleston
Wisconsin: Waukesha
Wyoming: Cheyenne

Mobile pretty clearly voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Charleston, WV too, as mileslunn stated.
So I don't see how they go to Trump this time.

Mobile is way more black than I thought apparently.

So Huntsville most likely.

Huntsville appears to have voted Trump, yes.


Also:
in Rhode Island probably Coventry (the largest town that is not officially a city), which voted Trump by 12 points. It's an Obama-Trump town and Obama won by double digits in 2008.
in Massachusetts it may be Westfield in Western Massachusetts (Trump +4), another Obama-Trump city. Otherwise Dracut, where Trump won by double digits and even McCain edged out Obama in 2008.
In Connecticut it could be Southington (yet another Obama-Trump town). If Trump loses there, then surely Shelton.

I would note that Obama lost only one municipality in Rhode Island in 2008 (Scituate) - and three in 2012.

[lfromnj]

Huntsville is about 50/50 on composite and it trended D in 2016 so it probably voted for Clinton. .And sandy springs was double digit Clinton BRTD.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Illinois: Pekin? I’m not optimistic about Trump anywhere in the suburban areas. The fact that he lost the 6th and 14th congressional districts is flat out embarrassing.

Massachusetts: Braintree

South Dakota: Sioux Falls

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

.
Massachusetts: Braintree

What? That voted for Hillary by ten points.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Huntsville is about 50/50 on composite and it trended D in 2016 so it probably voted for Clinton. .And sandy springs was double digit Clinton BRTD.

In that case, Hoover, AL and Johns Creek, GA.

[Roll Roons]

Illinois: Pekin? I’m not optimistic about Trump anywhere in the suburban areas. The fact that he lost the 6th and 14th congressional districts is flat out embarrassing.

Massachusetts: Braintree

South Dakota: Sioux Falls

Trump won the 14th, but I don't expect him to do so this year. I'm really not sure what the biggest IL city he'll carry is, since I don't see him carrying Springfield, Peoria, Rockford, Belleville, any of the big Chicago suburbs or college towns (Champaign, Bloomington/Normal). Maybe somewhere like Quincy?

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Starting west of the Rockies:

Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta
Idaho: Meridian
Hawaii: Probably nowhere
Nevada: Henderson or Carson City
Oregon: Keizer or Grants Pass
Utah: Provo
Washington: Spokane Valley or Kennewick

There seems to be some confusion in this thread about what the OP question is asking.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Huntsville is about 50/50 on composite and it trended D in 2016 so it probably voted for Clinton. .And sandy springs was double digit Clinton BRTD.

In that case, Hoover, AL and Johns Creek, GA.

Biden could definitely win Johns Creek as well.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Huntsville is about 50/50 on composite and it trended D in 2016 so it probably voted for Clinton. .And sandy springs was double digit Clinton BRTD.

In that case, Hoover, AL and Johns Creek, GA.

Biden could definitely win Johns Creek as well.

In that case Warner Robins would be it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Illinois: Pekin? I’m not optimistic about Trump anywhere in the suburban areas. The fact that he lost the 6th and 14th congressional districts is flat out embarrassing.

Massachusetts: Braintree

South Dakota: Sioux Falls

Trump won the 14th, but I don't expect him to do so this year. I'm really not sure what the biggest IL city he'll carry is, since I don't see him carrying Springfield, Peoria, Rockford, Belleville, any of the big Chicago suburbs or college towns (Champaign, Bloomington/Normal). Maybe somewhere like Quincy?

You don't think he can win Orland Park again? Orland Township was more than an 8 point Trump victory. Not impossible for Biden granted.

[lfromnj]

Huntsville is about 50/50 on composite and it trended D in 2016 so it probably voted for Clinton. .And sandy springs was double digit Clinton BRTD.

In that case, Hoover, AL and Johns Creek, GA.

Biden could definitely win Johns Creek as well.

Yeah John Creek was +3 Abrams although Rosewell was Kemp +4 and larger so thats more obvious than Creek.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Huntsville is about 50/50 on composite and it trended D in 2016 so it probably voted for Clinton. .And sandy springs was double digit Clinton BRTD.

In that case, Hoover, AL and Johns Creek, GA.

Biden could definitely win Johns Creek as well.

Yeah John Creek was +3 Abrams although Rosewell was Kemp +4 and larger so thats more obvious than Creek.

Let me go on record saying that I see Trump slightly favoured in Roswell.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Huntsville is about 50/50 on composite and it trended D in 2016 so it probably voted for Clinton. .And sandy springs was double digit Clinton BRTD.

In that case, Hoover, AL and Johns Creek, GA.

Biden could definitely win Johns Creek as well.

Yeah John Creek was +3 Abrams although Rosewell was Kemp +4 and larger so thats more obvious than Creek.

Let me go on record saying that I see Trump slightly favoured in Roswell.

Underrating Dem trends in the North Atlanta suburbs is never a good idea.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Huntsville is about 50/50 on composite and it trended D in 2016 so it probably voted for Clinton. .And sandy springs was double digit Clinton BRTD.

In that case, Hoover, AL and Johns Creek, GA.

Biden could definitely win Johns Creek as well.

Yeah John Creek was +3 Abrams although Rosewell was Kemp +4 and larger so thats more obvious than Creek.

Let me go on record saying that I see Trump slightly favoured in Roswell.

Underrating Dem trends in the North Atlanta suburbs is never a good idea.

Kemp+4 city calls for caution about trEndz in my opinion.

[TDAS04]

Starting west of the Rockies:

Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta
Idaho: Meridian
Hawaii: Probably nowhere
Nevada: Henderson or Carson City
Oregon: Keizer or Grants Pass
Utah: Provo
Washington: Spokane Valley or Kennewick

There seems to be some confusion in this thread about what the OP question is asking.

As I’ve stated, I’m okay with the direction the thread has taken.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Illinois: Pekin? I’m not optimistic about Trump anywhere in the suburban areas. The fact that he lost the 6th and 14th congressional districts is flat out embarrassing.

Massachusetts: Braintree

South Dakota: Sioux Falls

Trump won the 14th, but I don't expect him to do so this year. I'm really not sure what the biggest IL city he'll carry is, since I don't see him carrying Springfield, Peoria, Rockford, Belleville, any of the big Chicago suburbs or college towns (Champaign, Bloomington/Normal). Maybe somewhere like Quincy?

You don't think he can win Orland Park again? Orland Township was more than an 8 point Trump victory. Not impossible for Biden granted.

It’s winnable, but it just seems like the kind of area where Republicans have historically been strong but have tanked in the past couple of elections. Wealthy, diverse, and highly educated.


Those collar county suburbs have been the base of the Illinois GOP for a long time and voted decisively for Bruce Rauner sending him to Springfield, but Hillary won most of those same areas, and they voted even further left in 2018. The 6th and 14th congressional districts were drawn to be GOP vote sinks but now both send Democrats to Congress. Orland Park is probably demographically similar to the 14th district but a bit more conservative and less wealthy than that district.

Anyway, sure, it is winnable, but I just have a hard time giving Trump the benefit of the doubt in a suburban area like this when his party has lost so much ground in similar areas.

[NOVA Green]

Huntsville is about 50/50 on composite and it trended D in 2016 so it probably voted for Clinton. .And sandy springs was double digit Clinton BRTD.

In that case, Hoover, AL and Johns Creek, GA.

Regarding Alabama:



#3: Huntsville appears to have narrowly voted Trump in 2016.

Reagente and Fmr Pres Griffin parsed the precinct results from Huntsville in 2016 (Although slightly tricky because of some split precincts and other items...

Trump - 39,008 (47.3%)
Clinton - 38,030 (46.1%)

Additionally as Adam Griffin pointed out, it appears that there was decreased turnout in '16 in the heavier African-American precincts, but *yet* HRC almost pulled a win and kept Trump to under 50%, indicating the swings towards the DEMs were heaviest in White Educated parts of the City.

Needless to say even if the PRES 2020 GE tightens a bit, and even if swings are not universal (they never are), Huntsville appears to be a place that Biden should win, and quite possibly by 5-10% points.

#4 Tuscaloosa is obviously ruled out...

I ran the precinct numbers from 2016 on another thread...

Trump: 17,073   (40.9% R)
HRC:    22,827   (54.7% D)     + 13.8% D

Needless to say regardless of the "Townies vs Gownies" discussion, even if Student Turnout is down a bit because of COVID-19 it is extremely doubtful that this would impact City results in a negative direction considering the fundamentals here.

#5 Hoover: is probably the correct guess...

That being said...  Hoover was only roughly 60-40 Trump in '16 but went 60-40 Doug Jones for Senate in Dec '17 for a 40% DEM Swing!!!!

Now although I am not predicting that Hoover will vote for Joe Biden, even with a +10% Ntl hypothetical win as per current polling avgs, if we look at the DEC '17 US-SEN results, it is not entirely implausible to envision at minimum Hoover dropping to only high single digit Trump '20...

Again this is precisely the type of place (even in Alabama) which is rapidly moving against the Republican Brand, with extremely high levels of educational attainment, decent incomes, and an ethnically diversifying suburb on the edge of a large Metro area....

Anyways here's some stuff on '16 PRES vs '17 SEN Special Election that I posted on Jefferson County and then some other items elsewhere on maybe about 8-9 different Counties in Alabama using precinct results to crunch some numbers.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=288717.msg6136333#msg6136333

[NOVA Green]

Alaska:

Anchorage is really trippy, since I'm not sure the exact % and Raw Votes in '16 in Anchorage (Even if we adjust for precinct splits) mainly bcs of how absentee ballots situation being wrapped into AK CD's....

Best guess I could find when I initially took a look at a few years back was 47-53 Trump in '16 as a % of two part vote, but honestly the City deserves a deeper dive, since I never totally went back and re-parsed....

If we know the "Baseline Numbers" from '16 for Anchorage, it will help inform our current assessment of the GE PRES Election in AK based upon Ntl and Statewide polling, and multiple other variables and fuel further debate and discussion...

Let's figure out the exact 2016 PRES GE numbers from Anchorage, and then start the discussion??

[NYDem]

Illinois: Decatur
Maryland: Salisbury or Cumberland
New Jersey: Lakewood
New York: Utica
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Tennessee: Murfreesboro
Texas: Probably Plano, if not then definitely Lubbock

I'm fairly certain that Utica has voted Democratic for at least the last few presidential elections. I have it at 9052 to 7024 for Clinton in 2016 going by the precinct map that the NYT has.

All of the cities look Democratic until Rome (pop. 33,000), which is certainly Republican.

[Adam Griffin]

As NOVA has been getting to, every state (I think) had this data gathered for 2016, making it much easier to determine likeihoods.

Largest city/municipality in each state to vote for Trump

Additional data for states like TX on pages 5 & 6

[NOVA Green]

As NOVA has been getting to, every state (I think) had this data gathered for 2016, making it much easier to determine likeihoods.

Largest city/municipality in each state to vote for Trump

Additional data for states like TX on pages 5 & 6

Fmr. Pres. Adam Griffin is absolutely correct in that there were tons of different projects on various threads where a large number of Atlas / Talk-Election members invested a significant amount of labor to obtain the most accurate results possible by Cities throughout the United States for the 2016 PRES GE, using official precinct results to determine raw vote margins and % by Political Candidate / Party Vote.

Granted some of these threads, such as the one which Adam posted the link to are extremely lengthy reads, but also extremely informative (and there are many many others as well).

Not only would I hate to see Atlas "reinvent the wheel" in terms of covering actual election results from an extremely precinct level detailed analysis, but additionally my concern is that so much raw data and labor hours of crowd-sourcing and individual contributions are effectively "buried", simply because Atlas doesn't have a good system of managing the combination of actual detailed election results combined with detailed precinct level analysis, political geography, county level breakdowns in various threads within a more comprehensive manner.

Unfortunately I don't have a means of presenting a solution to this conundrum, but suspect maybe somehow more sophisticated search queries software might help resolve?   (Slight OT rant, but it frequently takes me much longer to find even my own posts from X Years ago than it should.    )

IDK....