States’ largest cities that will vote for Trump.

[TDAS04]

Inspired by the state capitals thread.

Cheyenne most likely will.  Sioux Falls could, but I hope not.  Oklahoma City could.  Not sure about Billings or Virginia Beach, I don’t think Fargo will, and I’m confident Anchorage will flip Democratic.

If I had to guess, Cheyenne, Sioux Falls, Billings, and OKC.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Starting west of the Rockies:

Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta
Idaho: Meridian
Hawaii: Probably nowhere
Nevada: Henderson or Carson City
Oregon: Keizer or Grants Pass
Utah: Provo
Washington: Spokane Valley or Kennewick

[NOVA Green]

I love Atlas....

[mileslunn]

Sioux Falls and Fargo I think Biden wins although wouldn't be surprised if Trump wins Cass County and Minnehaha County due to strength in rural areas.  He wins Cheyenne and he will also win Billings as usually Billings votes just as Republican as state as a whole.  Oklahoma City will be close but I think narrowly for Trump but Biden win there quite possible.  

Anchorage I believe will probably go for Trump as results there are usually close to statewide average so unless Biden is competitive in Alaska which despite some polls, I don't believe he will be.

Wichita, Kansas is another possibility.  Certainly Sedgwick County will go for Trump and with over half the county's population in Sedgwick county I think Trump narrowly wins Wichita.

So my guesses are Billings, Cheyenne, Wichita, and Oklahoma City.  Below is the list for reference

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_cities_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population

[TDAS04]

I forgot about Wichita.

Starting west of the Rockies:

Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta
Idaho: Meridian
Hawaii: Probably nowhere
Nevada: Henderson or Carson City
Oregon: Keizer or Grants Pass
Washington: Spokane Valley or Kennewick

While that wasn’t my initial intention with this thread, I don’t see any reason why not.  Go ahead!

[mileslunn]

Starting west of the Rockies:

Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta
Idaho: Meridian
Hawaii: Probably nowhere
Nevada: Henderson or Carson City
Oregon: Keizer or Grants Pass
Washington: Spokane Valley or Kennewick

I think Anchorage will still go for Trump.  For California, I believe Bakersfield is bigger than three mentioned and I think Trump will likely win it.  For Oregon, Albany and Medford are both larger than two cities mentioned and I think Trump will win both of those.  On other hand Simi Valley and Huntington Beach narrowed considerably so while Trump probably narrowly wins both, I could see Biden narrowly winning either.  

For Hawaii, Trump should win Niihau which while a small private island it always votes heavily GOP as well as the village of Kahuku which is on back side of Oahu and has around 2,600 people voted for Trump by 20 points so he probably holds that one too.

[skbl17]

In Georgia, I think it will be either Roswell or Gainesville, but I'd bet on the latter. Roswell (and Alpharetta, for that matter) narrowly voted for Kemp in 2018, but the margin was close enough that Biden is likely to close the gap.

[lfromnj]

Starting west of the Rockies:

Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta
Idaho: Meridian
Hawaii: Probably nowhere
Nevada: Henderson or Carson City
Oregon: Keizer or Grants Pass
Washington: Spokane Valley or Kennewick

Uh Medford in Oregon?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Starting west of the Rockies:

Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta
Idaho: Meridian
Hawaii: Probably nowhere
Nevada: Henderson or Carson City
Oregon: Keizer or Grants Pass
Washington: Spokane Valley or Kennewick

Uh Medford in Oregon?

I think Medford and Albany are both going to flip. Same with Marion, Jackson, Yamhill, Polk, and Deschutes counties.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

How did Charleston, WV vote in 2016? Kanawha Country was 57% Trump.

[Roll Roons]

Illinois: Decatur
Maryland: Salisbury or Cumberland
New Jersey: Lakewood
New York: Utica
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Tennessee: Murfreesboro
Texas: Probably Plano, if not then definitely Lubbock

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Illinois: Decatur
Maryland: Salisbury or Cumberland
New Jersey: Lakewood
New York: Utica
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Tennessee: Murfreesboro
Texas: Probably Plano, if not then definitely Lubbock

Plano voted for HRC, so definately not.

[Roll Roons]

Illinois: Decatur
Maryland: Salisbury or Cumberland
New Jersey: Lakewood
New York: Utica
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Tennessee: Murfreesboro
Texas: Probably Plano, if not then definitely Lubbock

Plano voted for HRC, so definately not.

Ah, I wasn't sure either way. In that case it'll be Lubbock.

[Gracile]

Illinois: Decatur
Maryland: Salisbury or Cumberland
New Jersey: Lakewood
New York: Utica
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Tennessee: Murfreesboro
Texas: Probably Plano, if not then definitely Lubbock

Decatur voted for Clinton by a not-insignificant margin.

For the record, the largest city to vote for Trump in IL in 2016 was Orland Park, which was around Trump +9-10 (imprecise precinct estimate). It is possible that it will vote for Trump again, though in this environment it's probably a tossup.

[lfromnj]

Illinois: Decatur
Maryland: Salisbury or Cumberland
New Jersey: Lakewood
New York: Utica
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Tennessee: Murfreesboro
Texas: Probably Plano, if not then definitely Lubbock

Plano voted for HRC, so definately not.

No she lost it by 4.
However it probably flips. However Frisco is about the same size after massive growth and should probably vote for Trump. However Lubbock is 100% Safe but it is smaller than Plano but I think still larger than Frisco which doubled in population.

The real error is Decatur which was Clinton +11.

[lfromnj]

Starting west of the Rockies:

Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta
Idaho: Meridian
Hawaii: Probably nowhere
Nevada: Henderson or Carson City
Oregon: Keizer or Grants Pass
Washington: Spokane Valley or Kennewick

Uh Medford in Oregon?

I think Medford and Albany are both going to flip. Same with Marion, Jackson, Yamhill, Polk, and Deschutes counties.

Medford was like +12 Trump

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Starting west of the Rockies:

Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta
Idaho: Meridian
Hawaii: Probably nowhere
Nevada: Henderson or Carson City
Oregon: Keizer or Grants Pass
Washington: Spokane Valley or Kennewick

Uh Medford in Oregon?

I think Medford and Albany are both going to flip. Same with Marion, Jackson, Yamhill, Polk, and Deschutes counties.

Medford was like +12 Trump

But he wad barely over 50% and it's growing fast. Biden is probably going to beat HRC by at least 8 points in Oregon just based on the number of 3rd party 2016 votes and the biggest swings are going to be in "upscale, downstate" Oregon. Although I did think Medford was closer just eyeballing it off the NYT precinct map so you could definitely be right.

[Left Wing]

Spokane is difficult to pin down as we don’t have city wide voting data but the county did vote for Trump by like 9 points in 2016 so I could see Spokane supporting Trump.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Lakeville is almost certainly the answer for Minnesota, just as it was for Jeff Johnson and Karin Housley.

[zoz]

Not sure if you mean cities as in the strict definition or just a town with a lot of people, but I think there's a chance Trump wins Millcreek Township in Erie County for PA. If not, then Altoona is the next one he would win

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

States' largest cities:

Birmingham: Biden slam dunk
Anchorage: probably Trump
Phoenix: Biden slam dunk
Little Rock: Biden slam dunk
Los Angeles: Biden slam dunk
Denver: Biden slam dunk
Bridgeport: Biden slam dunk
Wilmington: lol it's where Biden lives anyway Biden slam dunk
Jacksonville: likely Biden but it's close (HRC carried it by hair really)
Atlanta: Biden slam dunk
Honolulu: Biden slam dunk
Boise: Biden but not by much
Chicago: Biden slam dunk
Indianapolis: Biden slam dunk
Des Moines: Biden
Wichita: I am not so sure that Trump carried it in 2016. Could go either way?
Louisville: Biden
New Orleans: Biden slam dunk
Portland (Maine): Biden
Baltimore: Biden slam dunk
Boston: Biden slam dunk
Detroit: suffice to say that to my knowledge Trump got 3% of the vote there in 2016
Minneapolis: Biden slam dunk
Jackson: Biden slam dunk
Kansas City: Biden slam dunk
Billings: likely Trump
Omaha: Biden
Las Vegas: Biden
Manchester: Biden but not a landslide
Newark: Biden slam dunk
Albuquerque: Biden
New York: lol NYC has never not been Democratic
Charlotte: Biden slam dunk
Fargo: could go either way
Columbus: Biden slam dunk
Oklahoma City: Trump is favoured but an upset is possible.
Portland (Oregon): Biden slam dunk
Philadelphia: Biden slam dunk
Providence: Biden slam dunk
Charleston (South Carolina): Biden
Sioux Falls: likely Trump
Nashville: Biden
Houston: Biden
Salt Lake City: Biden slam dunk
Burlington: Biden slam dunk
Virginia Beach: likely Biden (it would be a flip from 2016)
Seattle: Biden slam dunk
Charleston (West Virginia): as much as it sounds weird even HRC won it comfortably, safe Biden.
Milwaukee: Biden slam dunk
Cheyenne: Trump landslide

[libertpaulian]

Indiana: Noblesville

[they don't love you like i love you]

Indiana: Noblesville

Not Fort Wayne?

[Roronoa D. Law]

By states' largest City Proper: Anchorage (Tilt D), Jacksonville (Tilt D), Wichita (Lean R), Billings, Fargo (Tossup), OKC (Tossup), Sioux Falls (Lean R), VA Beach (Lean D), Charleston WV (Likely D), Cheyenne

By Anchor Cities of states largest urban area: Anchorage (Tilt D), Billings, Fargo (Tossup), OKC (Tossup), Sioux Falls (Lean R), Charleston WV (Likely D), Cheyenne

[redjohn]

Wisconsin: I think Waukesha narrowly goes to Trump (lean R), Fond du Lac is likely R, and the biggest "safe R" city is New Berlin.