Flips projected at closing time
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  Flips projected at closing time
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Author Topic: Flips projected at closing time  (Read 729 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: August 05, 2020, 11:18:59 PM »

Similar to the thread in the Presidential Election Results forum, but for Congressional and Senate seats.
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S019
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« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2020, 11:23:18 PM »

CO to the Democrats and AL to the Republicans for the Senate(would also say CA-25, but given CA has late mail-in votes that often break for Democrats, it seems unlikely that it would be called at closing, also would say GA-07 but given Atlanta is one of the last places to count in GA, it won't be called that early, and would also say AZ-SEN, but similar dynamic to CA, where late mail-in votes favor Democrats)

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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2020, 11:39:41 PM »

CO-Sen and AL-Sen. I don't think Arizona or North Carolina will be insta-calls since not even in 2008 when Hagan was winning big early they called it at closing time.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2020, 01:51:44 AM »

Can we wait til Oct?
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2020, 06:36:26 AM »

Only AL-SEN.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2020, 06:39:03 AM »


That's actually a sensible post.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2020, 12:27:20 AM »

CO to the Democrats and AL to the Republicans for the Senate(would also say CA-25, but given CA has late mail-in votes that often break for Democrats, it seems unlikely that it would be called at closing, also would say GA-07 but given Atlanta is one of the last places to count in GA, it won't be called that early, and would also say AZ-SEN, but similar dynamic to CA, where late mail-in votes favor Democrats)

California is so painfully slow for some reason. I don't really understand it, but yeah, I wouldn't expect any insta-calls. I don't even think CA-49 was called at closing.
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2020, 01:13:09 AM »

In the Senate, maybe just AL, possibly CO. In the House, obviously NC-02 and NC-06, not sure what else will be counted quickly enough to be called.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2020, 03:59:09 PM »

I wonder if even Alabama will be called at closing. It isn’t a swing state and hasn’t been for a long time, so networks may not have a good understanding of what needs to happen before they can call the race (remember how long it took to call Georgia in 2016?). They may wait a while to call Alabama out of an abundance of caution.

I doubt Colorado will be lopsided enough to be called at closing.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2020, 05:41:06 PM »

Last poll had Hickenlooper 46 to 42 and Kelly only leading by 2
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2020, 06:46:54 PM »

Taking this from a historical perspective, which I assume was the author's original intent here, I believe that Arkansas was called instantly for John Boozman and Tom Cotton in 2010 and 2014, as Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor got humiliated in double-digit blowouts. And in 1964, Maryland was projected at closing, as incumbent Republican Senator J. Glenn Beall lost to his Democratic challenger Joseph Tydings 62-38%, an even larger and more humiliating defeat than those of Lincoln, Pryor, and Mark Kirk.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2020, 06:52:58 PM »

AL-SEN
CO-SEN
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2020, 05:06:10 AM »

I don't think any flips will be projected at closing time. Even in Alabama networks will put it as too early for a while just in case
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redjohn
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« Reply #13 on: August 09, 2020, 12:15:30 PM »

The only flip that could potentially be immediately projected is AL-Sen. No way CO-Sen is projected right away, but it's probably the next quickest flip projected.

AZ-Sen could also be a relatively quick projection depending on how the night goes.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2020, 02:39:33 PM »

CO-SEN.

I expect Jones should hold out the margins in Jefferson long enough to at least keep the race going for an hour.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #15 on: August 09, 2020, 02:40:54 PM »

CO-SEN.

I expect Jones should hold out the margins in Jefferson long enough to at least keep the race going for an hour.

In 2017 the big cities came in at the end.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #16 on: August 10, 2020, 12:34:09 AM »

AL-Sen and MI-pres.
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