TX-HD 108: Biden +23

[Bidenworth2020]

This is a Clinton +6, O'Rourke +15 seat.

https://t.co/MYEnKGq7NE?amp=1

[Orwell]

Is this that district of the Republican lady who's pro choice? Kim Davis or something.

[soundchaser]

Ok, I don't want to say that all the evidence is pointing to a narrow Biden win in Texas.

...But.

[Roll Roons]

Is this that district of the Republican lady who's pro choice? Kim Davis or something.

That's the 134th in Houston you're thinking of, and her name is Sarah Davis. This district is in the Dallas area, and includes downtown, Highland Park and University Park (including W's library at SMU). Internal, but holy crap.

[lfromnj]

The gop tried to go for majority of state house seats in dallas. They may not even have 1 in 2020. Dummymander of the decade.

[MT Treasurer]

So you’re saying that massive Democratic gains in TX since 2016 can’t be chalked up to the "Beto effect" or "anti-Cruz sentiment"?

[progressive85]

Who is the Democrat running for this seat in 2020?

[Badger]

Who is the Democrat running for this seat in 2020?

Mentioned in the poll. She's apparently Five Points up in the initial poll, and then 10 points up in what they call the final poll, which I assume is after some push questions.

Bottom line, ain't no way in hell even a moderate popular local Republican is going to survive Biden winning this seat by 20 + points.

[Lief 🗽]

This is a must-win seat for Dems to retake the House, so good to see.

[Roll Roons]

Who is the Democrat running for this seat in 2020?

Mentioned in the poll. She's apparently Five Points up in the initial poll, and then 10 points up in what they call the final poll, which I assume is after some push questions.

Bottom line, ain't no way in hell even a moderate popular local Republican is going to survive Biden winning this seat by 20 + points.

He smiles at you...

[Badger]

Who is the Democrat running for this seat in 2020?

Mentioned in the poll. She's apparently Five Points up in the initial poll, and then 10 points up in what they call the final poll, which I assume is after some push questions.

Bottom line, ain't no way in hell even a moderate popular local Republican is going to survive Biden winning this seat by 20 + points.

He smiles at you...

What a simultaneously creepy and inscrutable post.

[Roll Roons]

Who is the Democrat running for this seat in 2020?

Mentioned in the poll. She's apparently Five Points up in the initial poll, and then 10 points up in what they call the final poll, which I assume is after some push questions.

Bottom line, ain't no way in hell even a moderate popular local Republican is going to survive Biden winning this seat by 20 + points.

He smiles at you...

What a simultaneously creepy and inscrutable post.

My point is that Phil is very likely to win reelection even though Trump may not even crack 30% in Vermont. The headwinds will certainly be very tough for Meyer, but he shouldn't be counted out.

[wbrocks67]

Lines up with a narrow Biden lead statewide.

[The Mikado]

it would be nice to finish off the final Dallas Republican in the State House, but the idea of THAT area voting that heavily Democrat...my God. The Dallas Park Cities are one of the biggest concentrations of extreme wealth in America.

[lfromnj]

it would be nice to finish off the final Dallas Republican in the State House, but the idea of THAT area voting that heavily Democrat...my God. The Dallas Park Cities are one of the biggest concentrations of extreme wealth in America.

yeah but they split it into 2 districts lol.

[DrScholl]

Who is the Democrat running for this seat in 2020?

Mentioned in the poll. She's apparently Five Points up in the initial poll, and then 10 points up in what they call the final poll, which I assume is after some push questions.

Bottom line, ain't no way in hell even a moderate popular local Republican is going to survive Biden winning this seat by 20 + points.

He smiles at you...

At the local and state level Vermont is still somewhat parochial like much of the rest of the New England. The same can't really be said elsewhere.

[Badger]

Who is the Democrat running for this seat in 2020?

Mentioned in the poll. She's apparently Five Points up in the initial poll, and then 10 points up in what they call the final poll, which I assume is after some push questions.

Bottom line, ain't no way in hell even a moderate popular local Republican is going to survive Biden winning this seat by 20 + points.

He smiles at you...

What a simultaneously creepy and inscrutable post.

My point is that Phil is very likely to win reelection even though Trump may not even crack 30% in Vermont. The headwinds will certainly be very tough for Meyer, but he shouldn't be counted out.

Ah, that's Phil Scott. Okay, I get it.

[Badger]

Who is the Democrat running for this seat in 2020?

Mentioned in the poll. She's apparently Five Points up in the initial poll, and then 10 points up in what they call the final poll, which I assume is after some push questions.

Bottom line, ain't no way in hell even a moderate popular local Republican is going to survive Biden winning this seat by 20 + points.

He smiles at you...

At the local and state level Vermont is still somewhat parochial like much of the rest of the New England. The same can't really be said elsewhere.

How about Baker and Hogan? Sure, they didn't have their presidential candidate losing their state by around a two-to-one margin while running for re-election like Scott, but they had to survive a mass of democratic wavier in 2018, and did so with ease.

[DrScholl]

Who is the Democrat running for this seat in 2020?

Mentioned in the poll. She's apparently Five Points up in the initial poll, and then 10 points up in what they call the final poll, which I assume is after some push questions.

Bottom line, ain't no way in hell even a moderate popular local Republican is going to survive Biden winning this seat by 20 + points.

He smiles at you...

At the local and state level Vermont is still somewhat parochial like much of the rest of the New England. The same can't really be said elsewhere.

How about Baker and Hogan? Sure, they didn't have their presidential candidate losing their state by around a two-to-one margin while running for re-election like Scott, but they had to survive a mass of democratic wavier in 2018, and did so with ease.

Democrats didn't really put up good candidates in those races and neither of those incumbents did any damage to themselves. Waves to often include exceptions, like Mike Bebee managed to win in a landslide in 2010 despite the fact that Arkansas Democrats were losing everything else.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

So you’re saying that massive Democratic gains in TX since 2016 can’t be chalked up to the "Beto effect" or "anti-Cruz sentiment"?

Beto's margin is the new floor for TX Dems.

[S019]

I don't know where this talk of Meyer being a moderate comes from, a look at his campaign website shows he's a generic Republican. Anyways, he probably won't survive this wave, and Democrats have to flip this seat to have any hope of taking the State House.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Is this that district of the Republican lady who's pro choice? Kim Davis or something.

No, that district will probably be won by Biden by an even bigger margin than this. Around 64-34 or so I'd say

[WD]

Is this that district of the Republican lady who's pro choice? Kim Davis or something.

No, that district will probably be won by Biden by an even bigger margin than this. Around 64-34 or so I'd say

So is Davis DOA?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Is this that district of the Republican lady who's pro choice? Kim Davis or something.

No, that district will probably be won by Biden by an even bigger margin than this. Around 64-34 or so I'd say

So is Davis DOA?

I wouldn't call her DOA since she still won by 7% when O'Rourke was winning that seat 60-39, but I'd tilt it in Ann Johnson's (D) favor. A 30% margin is probably too big of a difference to overcome.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

There's about 8 seats that were within 5% and Beto won 6 of those. If all flipped and nothing else, that'd be a tied chamber.

Assuming swings of 10%, that'd be another 9 seats that could be caught in a wave. Granted, Cruz won 6 of them but the margins were within 4%.

I don't have PVIs calculated, but I hope the Texas Democratic Party is hitting the ground running