IN-Morning Consult: Trump +17

[Tender Branson]

A Morning Consult survey of 900 likely voters in Indiana also showed Trump with a big lead over Biden that resembled his previous win in that state over Clinton.

The survey found Trump with the support of 55% of Hoosier respondents and Biden with only 38%, a slightly smaller margin than Trump's 57% to 38% win in 2016.

The survey of likely voters in Indiana indicated stronger support among the candidates' own parties than in Kentucky, with Trump favored by 93% of Republicans and Biden favored by 86% of Democrats.

President Barack Obama won a narrow victory in Indiana over Sen. John McCain in the 2008 presidential race before losing by over 10 percentage points in 2012, while Clinton lost to Trump by 19 percentage points.

https://eu.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2020/08/04/2020-elections-donald-trump-up-big-over-joe-biden-kentucky-poll-says/5577982002/

[Tender Branson]

I can't find this poll on Morning Consult though ... strange.

[Brittain33]

Well, we found the one state not swinging D.

[soundchaser]

Honestly, fine -- if this means Biden's popular vote margin isn't just being inflated by a bunch of reliably Republican states, it's for the best.

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t buy this, and Morning Consult isn’t exactly the most reliable pollster either.

IN not or only barely swinging D in an environment in which OH is tied, IA is only a narrow Trump advantage, MI is "gone", Biden is comfortably ahead in WI/PA, Biden is doing much better than Clinton in MO, etc. makes no sense even if the state is safe R/not contested + uniform swing isn’t a thing.

[Illiniwek]

Lame.

[wbrocks67]

I don’t buy this, and Morning Consult isn’t exactly the most reliable pollster either.

IN not or only barely swinging D in an environment in which OH is tied, IA is only a narrow Trump advantage, MI is "gone", Biden is comfortably ahead in WI/PA, Biden is doing much better than Clinton in MO, etc. makes no sense even if the state is safe R/not contested + uniform swing isn’t a thing.

Yeah... not buying it either. Indiana isn't going to wildly swing, but Donnelly also only lost by 5 in 2018. Biden only shaving 2% off of Hillary's margin seems... unlikely

[Badger]

Indiana. The Alabama of the North.

[Rand]

Indiana. The Alabama of the North.

Alabama. The Indiana of the South.

[Badger]

Indiana. The Alabama of the North.

Alabama. The Indiana of the South.

In fairness, that is unkind and undeserved towards Indiana.

The South. The south of America.

[Pollster]

If I had to guess, I'd say they are probably weighting their poll results to a self-reported 2016 vote. This can be effective when done with care, but when done as a blanket weight it can make a trend/swing appear smaller than it may actually be. Iirc it was this type of weighting that caused Emerson to badly miss the Alabama special election.

[SnowLabrador]

We should have picked Bernie.

[Ferguson97]

We should have picked Bernie.

Lmao what

What is your rationalization that Bernie would be doing better in Indiana of all places?

[Beet]

Honestly, fine -- if this means Biden's popular vote margin isn't just being inflated by a bunch of reliably Republican states, it's for the best.

Indiana's not radically different than Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. Its a midwestern bellwether. Obama's strong performance in Indiana indicated his strength in the Midwest generally. Clinton's underperformance there and Evan Bayh's loss were the first signs of Trump's win. I'll be watching the results in Indiana as they come in first on election night to confirm Trump's re-election.

[YE]

Honestly, fine -- if this means Biden's popular vote margin isn't just being inflated by a bunch of reliably Republican states, it's for the best.

Indiana's not radically different than Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. Its a midwestern bellwether. Obama's strong performance in Indiana indicated his strength in the Midwest generally. Clinton's underperformance there and Evan Bayh's loss were the first signs of Trump's win. I'll be watching the results in Indiana as they come in first on election night to confirm Trump's re-election.

Indiana is much more ancestrally Republican than those states and has a bit of a Southern Evangelical bent. It’s not a bellwether at least on a uniform basis. Also funny how you never comment on the good Biden polls.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Honestly, fine -- if this means Biden's popular vote margin isn't just being inflated by a bunch of reliably Republican states, it's for the best.

Indiana's not radically different than Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. Its a midwestern bellwether. Obama's strong performance in Indiana indicated his strength in the Midwest generally. Clinton's underperformance there and Evan Bayh's loss were the first signs of Trump's win. I'll be watching the results in Indiana as they come in first on election night to confirm Trump's re-election.

Yes, Vigo county is the big bellweather in the state

[Progressive Pessimist]

Seems slightly bullish for Trump to me.

[Hope For A New Era]

I'm skeptical.

D+8 national environment + Democratic rebound in the state from low point in 2016 (rurals shifted before suburbs) = probably around Trump +9.

[morgieb]

Bizarre TSTL. Especially given the IN-05 internal and what we're seeing in places like Michigan. I'm calling outlier until proven otherwise.

[Crumpets]

Swing map be like:

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They dont poll Gov races in IN, ND, UT and WVA. I dont know why

[TDAS04]

I could certainly see Indiana trend right, even though it probably swings left.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I don’t buy this, and Morning Consult isn’t exactly the most reliable pollster either.

IN not or only barely swinging D in an environment in which OH is tied, IA is only a narrow Trump advantage, MI is "gone", Biden is comfortably ahead in WI/PA, Biden is doing much better than Clinton in MO, etc. makes no sense even if the state is safe R/not contested + uniform swing isn’t a thing.

Either this poll is wrong, or Trump is within three points of Biden.

If Indiana results roll in at 7 pm looking like 2016, I'm going to start drinking heavily.

[Eraserhead]

Truly insane that Obama carried this giant trailer park of a state in 2008.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Indiana was hit pretty hard by COVID-19 economically speaking, it's unemployment rate was above the national average for much of the past few months.

Indiana is also one of the more elastic states, even if Republicans have a built-in advantage. These numbers are of course possible but not really sure if I buy it...