Monmouth-IA: RV-Trump +3 | LV-Trump +2 or Tied (user search)
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  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  Monmouth-IA: RV-Trump +3 | LV-Trump +2 or Tied (search mode)
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Author Topic: Monmouth-IA: RV-Trump +3 | LV-Trump +2 or Tied  (Read 1878 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: August 05, 2020, 10:12:11 AM »
Quote from: BlueSwan on August 05, 2020, 10:09:09 AM
It strikes me as odd that the high turnout model has Trump doing better than the low turnout model.

Yeah, I'm confused as to how the low turnout model has them tied, but higher turnout benefits him?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2020, 10:15:03 AM »
Quote
“One of the reasons Biden may do nominally better in a lower turnout scenario is that his voters are slightly more motivated. It’s  not a statistically significant difference, though, and this race is currently up for grabs no matter how you slice it,” said Murray.

Can someone explain this to me? If Biden's voters are more motivated, shouldn't that help him in the... higher turnout model?
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wbrocks67
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Posts: 22,297
« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2020, 10:21:26 AM »
This also has Trump's COVID response at +/- 0 which... considering it's underwater by like 20% nationwide, I can't imagine that is correct.
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