Monmouth-IA: RV-Trump +3 | LV-Trump +2 or Tied

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1291027211798089728?s=20

[Sir Mohamed]

Tilt/Lean R. Still worth putting some effort in IA for the sake of the senate and 2 competitive House races.

Senate has Ernst up 48-45, btw.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I presume that Dubuque County flips R --> D in this scenario?

[Zaybay]

Trump at -5 net approval, 45/50. He's winning over a decent amount of people who dislike him, but they could definitely be flipped against him.

[BlueSwan]

It strikes me as odd that the high turnout model has Trump doing better than the low turnout model.

[Pollster]

Very small sample size here, margin of error race.

[wbrocks67]

It strikes me as odd that the high turnout model has Trump doing better than the low turnout model.

Yeah, I'm confused as to how the low turnout model has them tied, but higher turnout benefits him?

[wbrocks67]

“One of the reasons Biden may do nominally better in a lower turnout scenario is that his voters are slightly more motivated. It’s  not a statistically significant difference, though, and this race is currently up for grabs no matter how you slice it,” said Murray.

Can someone explain this to me? If Biden's voters are more motivated, shouldn't that help him in the... higher turnout model?

[DINGO Joe]

“One of the reasons Biden may do nominally better in a lower turnout scenario is that his voters are slightly more motivated. It’s  not a statistically significant difference, though, and this race is currently up for grabs no matter how you slice it,” said Murray.

Can someone explain this to me? If Biden's voters are more motivated, shouldn't that help him in the... higher turnout model?

No, because a high turnout means lesser motivated voters are also turning out

[wbrocks67]

This also has Trump's COVID response at +/- 0 which... considering it's underwater by like 20% nationwide, I can't imagine that is correct.

[Gracile]

It strikes me as odd that the high turnout model has Trump doing better than the low turnout model.

It's not that surprising. In places like Iowa, low propensity voters skew white, rural, and lacking a college degree - demographics which would be favorable to Trump on paper. A big worry for Trump's campaign isn't that these voters will flip, but that they just won't turn out for him at the high rates in 2016 (see what happened in Iowa in 2018 where lower turnout among Republicans relative to Democrats hurt them in the House races and kept the Governor's race close).

[Person Man]

If Biden loses Iowa by 3, it makes since if he is leading the NPV by 9 if Clinton lost Iowa by 9 when she won the NPV by 2. People move and change their minds, but there might not be  much change. I'd put this in as Trump +2 and Ernst +1.

[Tender Branson]

400 registered voters only.

Which means the sample size for LV could be 240-320 (60% low turnout vs. 80% high turnout model).

They didn’t publish the sample sizes for the LV models ...

Anyway, in Austria it would be thrown out as a legitimate poll because of low polling standards according to the VDMI standards, which require a sample of at least 800.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Iowa was the most rural of the states that flipped in 2016, so it's not stunning to me that it would be more stubbornly pro-Trump than any of the others. There's certainly an opportunity here for Biden given Trump's underwater approval rating, but I wouldn't be prioritizing it given the low number of electoral votes up for grabs.

[indietraveler]

Interesting read of the breakdown here. If the election was held today we would probably be looking at Trump/Ernst wins similar to the 2018 governors race with the house delegation staying the same - if their urban/swing/rural breakdowns are to be believed. Biden has improved enough on Clinton's numbers where IA-2 and IA-3 probably aren't a real threat of flipping. IA-1 seems to be the most likely to flip based on the summary, but I wouldn't bet on it happening.

Also of note, not surprised by the lesser education gap here. It would be interesting to see data on this but it seems conservative college grads here disproportionally stay in Iowa upon graduation, either moving back to their home communities or to other parts of the state. Liberal graduates seem to leave the state at a higher rate for urban areas - Chicago, Denver, Austin, etc.

[Annatar]

Interesting read of the breakdown here. If the election was held today we would probably be looking at Trump/Ernst wins similar to the 2018 governors race with the house delegation staying the same - if their urban/swing/rural breakdowns are to be believed. Biden has improved enough on Clinton's numbers where IA-2 and IA-3 probably aren't a real threat of flipping. IA-1 seems to be the most likely to flip based on the summary, but I wouldn't bet on it happening.

Also of note, not surprised by the lesser education gap here. It would be interesting to see data on this but it seems conservative college grads here disproportionally stay in Iowa upon graduation, either moving back to their home communities or to other parts of the state. Liberal graduates seem to leave the state at a higher rate for urban areas - Chicago, Denver, Austin, etc.

There's a big difference between how college whites who live in big metro areas (5m+ people) vote and how college whites who live in smaller metro areas vote, that was one of the things that stood out in 2016, biggest wings among college whites against Trump relative to Romney were among college whites in bigger metro areas.

[Ferguson97]

Remember this is a state Trump won by nearly 10 points last time

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LV screen now, it's going down to wire after Labor Day 278 map, Trump tracking 48/42 Rassy tracking

[MT Treasurer]

Looks like a 12-point Republican lean relative to the "nation as a whole" if we assume this and the Biden +9 national poll are accurate. In 2016, IA was... 12 points more Republican than the nation. Doesn’t sound very "elastic" to me, especially since this is only one of many polls showing Trump with a narrow but stubborn advantage in a massive Democratic wave year.

Also, if Democrats can’t win statewide under current conditions, press F for the Iowa Democratic Party in 2022.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Maybe Iowa will be my new Florida. The presidential results line up with expectations and honestly I don't actually care much about it flipping. It's one of the last states Biden needs. But I do care a lot about the Senate election and it will be helpful to flip, so to see Ernst up for the first time in awhile is very disheartening.

It's still a tossup for now, but I'm going to be depressed if it moves back to lean or likely R, especially now that the Kansas Senate election looks like it's going to be fool's gold. It would signal that MTTreasurer is right and that Democrats will be incapable of winning at the state level for the forseeable future. You can scratch off Grassley's successor in 2022 being a Democrat if that's the case too.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

See username. This is a Safe R state that is masquerading as a battleground state due to Trump's horrible numbers nationwide. The fact that Biden can't lead here in any credible polls despite Trump's clown show shows how dire the situation here is for Democrats. Add on to this that Democrats have performed worse in Iowa than polling indicates.

Texas is more likely to flip than Iowa, but people won't acknowledge that fact until it actually happens.

[DrScholl]

See username. This is a Safe R state that is masquerading as a battleground state due to Trump's horrible numbers nationwide. The fact that Biden can't lead here in any credible polls despite Trump's clown show shows how dire the situation here is for Democrats. Add on to this that Democrats have performed worse in Iowa than polling indicates.

Texas is more likely to flip than Iowa, but people won't acknowledge that fact until it actually happens.

The state went from an 3-R to 3-D House delegation in 2018. That doesn't sound at all safe Republican.

[Spark]

Trump will win IA by more than this considering this is a RV poll.

[WD]

See username. This is a Safe R state that is masquerading as a battleground state due to Trump's horrible numbers nationwide. The fact that Biden can't lead here in any credible polls despite Trump's clown show shows how dire the situation here is for Democrats. Add on to this that Democrats have performed worse in Iowa than polling indicates.

Texas is more likely to flip than Iowa, but people won't acknowledge that fact until it actually happens.

The state went from an 3-R to 3-D House delegation in 2018. That doesn't sound at all safe Republican.

Those districts were all won by Trump by less than 5. They only won the House popular vote because King massively underperformed in IA-04, while Trump will likely win that by double digits. “3-1 D delegation” is not a good argument for why IA is still competitive.

Trump will likely win the state, the only race worth investing here for the Dems is the Senate.

[Brittain33]

Trump will win IA by more than this considering this is a RV poll.

Did you see that the LV screen makes it a closer race for Trump?