Interesting read of the breakdown here. If the election was held today we would probably be looking at Trump/Ernst wins similar to the 2018 governors race with the house delegation staying the same - if their urban/swing/rural breakdowns are to be believed. Biden has improved enough on Clinton's numbers where IA-2 and IA-3 probably aren't a real threat of flipping. IA-1 seems to be the most likely to flip based on the summary, but I wouldn't bet on it happening.
Also of note, not surprised by the lesser education gap here. It would be interesting to see data on this but it seems conservative college grads here disproportionally stay in Iowa upon graduation, either moving back to their home communities or to other parts of the state. Liberal graduates seem to leave the state at a higher rate for urban areas - Chicago, Denver, Austin, etc.
There's a big difference between how college whites who live in big metro areas (5m+ people) vote and how college whites who live in smaller metro areas vote, that was one of the things that stood out in 2016, biggest wings among college whites against Trump relative to Romney were among college whites in bigger metro areas.
