indietraveler
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,039
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« on: August 05, 2020, 11:01:53 AM » |
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Interesting read of the breakdown here. If the election was held today we would probably be looking at Trump/Ernst wins similar to the 2018 governors race with the house delegation staying the same - if their urban/swing/rural breakdowns are to be believed. Biden has improved enough on Clinton's numbers where IA-2 and IA-3 probably aren't a real threat of flipping. IA-1 seems to be the most likely to flip based on the summary, but I wouldn't bet on it happening.
Also of note, not surprised by the lesser education gap here. It would be interesting to see data on this but it seems conservative college grads here disproportionally stay in Iowa upon graduation, either moving back to their home communities or to other parts of the state. Liberal graduates seem to leave the state at a higher rate for urban areas - Chicago, Denver, Austin, etc.
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