Economist/YouGov: Biden +9
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Author Topic: Economist/YouGov: Biden +9  (Read 592 times)
VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« on: August 05, 2020, 09:28:04 AM »
Biden 49%
Trump 40%

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/t0qsgk3wcg/econTabReport.pdf
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2020, 09:35:49 AM »
Funny how there is so much handwringing about the polls, and despite some flaws (their indie sample most notably), this poll has been very steady for months now.
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BobbieMac
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« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2020, 09:48:02 AM »
I think this is identical to last week.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2020, 09:49:51 AM »
#Bidenunder50
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #4 on: August 05, 2020, 10:00:07 AM »
Quote from: BobbieMac on August 05, 2020, 09:48:02 AM
I think this is identical to last week.

It is.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2020, 10:11:13 AM »
Trump COVID-19 handling
Adults: 37/55 (-18)
RV: 40/57 (-17)

Trump job approval
Adults: 40/55 (-15)
RV: 42/56 (-14)

Trump fav
Adults: 40/57 (-17)
RV: 41/58 (-17)

Biden fav
Adults: 43/49 (-6)
RV: 49/49 (=)

GCB at +12.
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OneJ
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« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2020, 10:48:31 AM »
I’m still waiting for the tightening to happen.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: August 05, 2020, 10:53:16 AM »
Quote from: OneJ on August 05, 2020, 10:48:31 AM
I’m still waiting for the tightening to happen.

We'll continue to hear about it though with the amount of junk polls we've been getting, since the amount of high quality polling continues to be lackluster this cycle
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #8 on: August 05, 2020, 11:10:09 AM »
I'm no statistician but can someone explain to me how yesterday and today we had two Biden +9 polls and yet the 538 aggregate went from Biden +8.3 to Biden +8?
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soundchaser
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« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2020, 11:16:13 AM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on August 05, 2020, 11:10:09 AM
I'm no statistician but can someone explain to me how yesterday and today we had two Biden +9 polls and yet the 538 aggregate went from Biden +8.3 to Biden +8?

We also got a Rassmussen tracking poll that has Biden +3. An outlier like that will really mess with the average.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2020, 11:17:36 AM »
Quote from: soundchaser on August 05, 2020, 11:16:13 AM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on August 05, 2020, 11:10:09 AM
I'm no statistician but can someone explain to me how yesterday and today we had two Biden +9 polls and yet the 538 aggregate went from Biden +8.3 to Biden +8?

We also got a Rassmussen tracking poll that has Biden +3. An outlier like that will really mess with the average.

Not to mention, their average seems to react more to worse polls than better polls for some reason.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2020, 11:55:10 AM »
Nate Silver doesn’t make any money if the race is a boring blowout. You’d just think he’d be less shamelessly obvious about this kind of stuff.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #12 on: August 05, 2020, 12:11:11 PM »
Quote from: soundchaser on August 05, 2020, 11:16:13 AM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on August 05, 2020, 11:10:09 AM
I'm no statistician but can someone explain to me how yesterday and today we had two Biden +9 polls and yet the 538 aggregate went from Biden +8.3 to Biden +8?

We also got a Rassmussen tracking poll that has Biden +3. An outlier like that will really mess with the average.

No, it was before the Rassmusen poll. Now that they added that it's gone to +7.9.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: August 05, 2020, 12:23:58 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on August 05, 2020, 12:11:11 PM
Quote from: soundchaser on August 05, 2020, 11:16:13 AM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on August 05, 2020, 11:10:09 AM
I'm no statistician but can someone explain to me how yesterday and today we had two Biden +9 polls and yet the 538 aggregate went from Biden +8.3 to Biden +8?

We also got a Rassmussen tracking poll that has Biden +3. An outlier like that will really mess with the average.

No, it was before the Rassmusen poll. Now that they added that it's gone to +7.9.

and then we could literally get another Biden +15 poll and it would go up to like +8.1
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