a note on southern states.

[WalterMitty]

i think you all have to look at polling differently from southern states than you do non-southern states.

a poll from louisiana or arkansas that has john kerry within 4 or 5 points, doesnt necessarily mean he is within 'striking distance".  it means that the black vote (25-30%) is aligned solidly with kerry.  and the rural white vote is aligned solidly with bush.  

i dont think there will be a whole lot of movement in southern polls.  i dont see bush appealing to southern blacks, nor do i see kerry appealing to rural southern whites.

just my opinion.  perhaps yall see things differently.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

if the undecideds are high enough, there is room to move.

[WalterMitty]

in my opinions, 'undecideds' are overrated.  most politically active people (i.e regular voters) have some sort of political ideology.  i dont think there are too many folks who are bona fide undecideds.  most people at least lean in one direction.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All Southern States vary as much as other states (ditto for New England)... but your correct for Mississippi and Alabama (except for the Appalachian bit. Call it Tennessee South).
In Georgia (for example) the big problem the Dems have is the white suburban areas (eg: Cobb County). If GA was still a very rural state, the Dems would still usually win it.
They have been really bad at appealing to "sunbelt suburbanites" IMO...