PA, MI, WI (Hodas & Associates) - Biden +6, +12, +14
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 15, 2024, 12:52:04 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  PA, MI, WI (Hodas & Associates) - Biden +6, +12, +14		 « previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: PA, MI, WI (Hodas & Associates) - Biden +6, +12, +14  (Read 2272 times)
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 04, 2020, 11:14:00 AM »
« edited: August 04, 2020, 11:17:18 AM by LCameronOR »
PA
Biden - 51
Trump - 45

https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/restoration/pages/448/attachments/original/1596556896/Banners_July2020_PA_07-22-2020.pdf

MI
Biden - 53
Trump - 41

https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/restoration/pages/448/attachments/original/1596556627/Banners_MI_July2020_07-17-2020.pdf

WI
Biden - 52
Trump - 38

https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/restoration/pages/448/attachments/original/1596557067/Banner-WI_20-3006.pdf

These polls were done in conjunction with Restoration PAC, which is a Republican group.
Logged
SaneDemocrat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,341


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2020, 11:15:21 AM »
Wisconsin is way way too high.Other are reasonable.
Logged
soundchaser
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,652


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.26

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2020, 11:21:21 AM »
No wonder Trump's triaging Michigan if this is what his own party's polls are finding.
Logged
Horus
Sheliak5
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,088
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2020, 11:22:30 AM »
PA is still within striking distance for Trump, Biden shouldn't take it for granted.
Logged
Duke of York
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,143


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 04, 2020, 11:24:24 AM »
Quote from: Horus on August 04, 2020, 11:22:30 AM
PA is still within striking distance for Trump, Biden shouldn't take it for granted.
I doubt he will
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,187


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 04, 2020, 11:37:09 AM »
Isn't this the same group who had that Trump +6 poll for PA or something a few months back
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 04, 2020, 11:43:14 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 04, 2020, 11:37:09 AM
Isn't this the same group who had that Trump +6 poll for PA or something a few months back
They had Trump +5 in their May 9-13 poll, but their June 8-11 poll had Biden +12.
Logged
rosin
Rookie
**
Posts: 237
Denmark


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 04, 2020, 11:59:44 AM »
Pretty interesting pattern with PA rightwards of WI, that we now have seen in several polls, though nowhere as clear as here (though this 8 point difference is most likely an outlier).
Logged
Arizona Iced Pee
Rand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,305
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 04, 2020, 12:05:08 PM »
Trump must immediately pour more money into DC.
Logged
Illini Moderate
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 918
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 04, 2020, 12:07:22 PM »
The polling has been so strong in WI and MI that I'm actually starting to feel optimistic for once. I really do want to see more high quality polling in MN, ME, NH, and NV though. Don't want to take anything for granted
Logged
BlueSwan
blueswan
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,517
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 04, 2020, 12:31:58 PM »
Quote from: LCameronOR on August 04, 2020, 11:43:14 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 04, 2020, 11:37:09 AM
Isn't this the same group who had that Trump +6 poll for PA or something a few months back
They had Trump +5 in their May 9-13 poll, but their June 8-11 poll had Biden +12.
Those are some bonkers swings given that the race has pretty much been rock steady during that period. Not something that inspires great confidence in this pollster.
Logged
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 04, 2020, 01:17:15 PM »
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 04, 2020, 01:19:07 PM »
Quote from: Joshua on August 04, 2020, 01:17:15 PM

Hodas released those numbers though? What the hell happened? I don't think the PAC's numbers will be all that different from these ones.
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,419
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 04, 2020, 01:21:05 PM »
Quote from: Joshua on August 04, 2020, 01:17:15 PM


Huh?
Logged
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 04, 2020, 01:21:35 PM »
Quote from: LCameronOR on August 04, 2020, 01:19:07 PM
Hodas released those numbers though? What the hell happened? I don't think the PAC's numbers will be all that different from these ones.

Yeah, makes no sense to me. The Hodas release looks legit.
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 04, 2020, 01:25:02 PM »
Quote from: Joshua on August 04, 2020, 01:21:35 PM
Quote from: LCameronOR on August 04, 2020, 01:19:07 PM
Hodas released those numbers though? What the hell happened? I don't think the PAC's numbers will be all that different from these ones.

Yeah, makes no sense to me. The Hodas release looks legit.
Always the possibility that they got numbers they didn't like so they're going to "readjust" them OANN style.
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,586
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 04, 2020, 01:43:49 PM »
Quote from: LCameronOR on August 04, 2020, 01:25:02 PM
Quote from: Joshua on August 04, 2020, 01:21:35 PM
Quote from: LCameronOR on August 04, 2020, 01:19:07 PM
Hodas released those numbers though? What the hell happened? I don't think the PAC's numbers will be all that different from these ones.

Yeah, makes no sense to me. The Hodas release looks legit.

Always the possibility that they got numbers they didn't like so they're going to "readjust" them OANN style.

Smiley
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,343
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 04, 2020, 02:57:04 PM »
Yet another poll that shows if anything WI is more safe than PA. Yet people still cling to this fantastical notion that WI is somehow significantly more likely to stay with Trump.
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 04, 2020, 03:51:37 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on August 04, 2020, 02:57:04 PM
Yet another poll that shows if anything WI is more safe than PA. Yet people still cling to this fantastical notion that WI is somehow significantly more likely to stay with Trump.

Post-2016 Stress Disorder.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 04, 2020, 05:30:17 PM »
Good for Trump
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,395
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 04, 2020, 06:10:18 PM »
Quote from: Bland Neoliberal Consensus Democrat on August 04, 2020, 03:51:37 PM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on August 04, 2020, 02:57:04 PM
Yet another poll that shows if anything WI is more safe than PA. Yet people still cling to this fantastical notion that WI is somehow significantly more likely to stay with Trump.

Post-2016 Stress Disorder.

It's true. I was convinced of that too until fairly recently. Pennsylvania meanwhile seems to remain as the truest battleground of the three Obama-Trump states that gave him the win, though Biden has had a pretty consistent lead there too.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,187


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 04, 2020, 06:52:58 PM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on August 04, 2020, 06:10:18 PM
Quote from: Bland Neoliberal Consensus Democrat on August 04, 2020, 03:51:37 PM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on August 04, 2020, 02:57:04 PM
Yet another poll that shows if anything WI is more safe than PA. Yet people still cling to this fantastical notion that WI is somehow significantly more likely to stay with Trump.

Post-2016 Stress Disorder.

It's true. I was convinced of that too until fairly recently. Pennsylvania meanwhile seems to remain as the truest battleground of the three Obama-Trump states that gave him the win, though Biden has had a pretty consistent lead there too.

Eh, there's been plenty of Pennsylvania 8-11 Biden polls.
Logged
Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,825


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 05, 2020, 05:17:12 AM »
Quote from: rosin on August 04, 2020, 11:59:44 AM
Pretty interesting pattern with PA rightwards of WI, that we now have seen in several polls, though nowhere as clear as here (though this 8 point difference is most likely an outlier).

SW PA is turning into WV.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,187


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 05, 2020, 05:17:54 AM »
So it looks like 538 removed them (or didn't add them to begin with?) It feels like they're gonna pull an OANN here
Logged
BobbieMac
Rookie
**
Posts: 227
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 05, 2020, 05:47:54 AM »
They've just released the 'real' numbers and... they're virtually the same!!

MICHIGAN
Trump: 40.3%
Biden: 51.3%
Change from June: Trump +6.5 percentage points

WISCONSIN
Trump: 37.9%
Biden: 50.3%
Change from June: Trump +4.2 percentage points

PENNSYLVANIA
Trump: 44.3%
Biden: 49.7%
Change from June: Trump +6.3 percentage points

Apparently its a massive swing to Trump since June. I don't even remember a poll from June.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.054 seconds with 11 queries.