CA-UC Berkeley: Biden +39

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Goodbye Devin Nunes!

[Del Tachi]

Go on Democrats, keep patting yourselves on the back about all the new votes y'all will be getting in OC and Westchester this November!  The election is Likely D! 

This is such a dumb post. Biden is not particularly strong (for a democrat) in California, and is likely only winning by this outsized margin due to his 8-10 point lead nationally, which if you have seen recent polling, is translating into swing states.

Or is Biden winning by 8-10 pts nationally due to an outsize (+39!) lead in California?  It's kinda a chicken-and-egg type situation, especially when you consider the outsize influence California responses have on national polls (being >10% of the national population).  Biden is behind his national polling lead in swing states (MI, FL, PA, NC, etc.)  There is no national election for president.   

I don't see how it's controversial to note that Biden expanding his lead (greatly!, at least over the 2016 result) in a Titanium D state like California doesn’t translate to him being in a better position to win the electoral college.  Somehow red avatars thought this was a poll of Texas?  lol

[Del Tachi]

Go on Democrats, keep patting yourselves on the back about all the new votes y'all will be getting in OC and Westchester this November!  The election is Likely D! 

Meanwhile conservatives will pat themselves on the back for Trump winning counties with a few hundred people in them that have voted Republican forever.

Based on your own admission, those voters count more in the electoral college....so....

[Del Tachi]

The theory that CA is "maxed out" for Democrats was always silly and didn’t even make sense when Trump's position was less catastrophic than it is now.

That said, I don’t think OC and Westchester will be what Democrats will be patting themselves on the back for on election night if that margin is accurate. DFW and Houston, though...

What does the margin in California tell us about election results in Texas or any other state?  Hillary Clinton had the best margin for any Democrat in California since FDR and she still lost the national election, lol

Democrats standing around celebrating a +39 poll in Titanium D California makes me think they're campaigning to win the NPV

[Greedo punched first]

The theory that CA is "maxed out" for Democrats was always silly and didn’t even make sense when Trump's position was less catastrophic than it is now.

That said, I don’t think OC and Westchester will be what Democrats will be patting themselves on the back for on election night if that margin is accurate. DFW and Houston, though...

What does the margin in California tell us about election results in Texas or any other state?  Hillary Clinton had the best margin for any Democrat in California since FDR and she still lost the national election, lol

Democrats standing around celebrating a +39 poll in Titanium D California makes me think they're campaigning to win the NPV

Democratic trends in Texas and Arizona maybe?

[Kamala's side hoe]

Overall, 70% of the state’s voters have an unfavorable view of Trump, 28% see him favorably. By contrast, 56% of the state’s voters have a favorable view of Biden, compared with 40% who have an unfavorable view. In Los Angeles, 24% have a favorable view of Trump, and 60% have a favorable view of Biden.

About 15% of voters have an unfavorable view of both candidates. That group supports Biden by 5 to 1. That’s a big shift from 2016, when voters nationwide who disliked both candidates broke heavily in Trump’s favor.

The state’s nonpartisan voters back Biden by about 4 to 1, the poll found.

Biden gets backing from white voters, 66% to 31%; from Black people 87% to 7%; from Asian and Pacific Islanders, 72% to 21%; and from Latinos, 63% to 30%, the poll found.

In liberal California, even white men without college educations — Trump’s strong point nationwide — back Biden. The former vice president leads among that group 54% to 42%, the poll found. That pales compared to Biden’s support among college-educated women, however. They back him 79% to 17%.

original source

[Del Tachi]

Go on Democrats, keep patting yourselves on the back about all the new votes y'all will be getting in OC and Westchester this November!  The election is Likely D! 

That will be nice, but I'm more excited about the new votes Biden will get in Tarrant, Denton, Collin, Williamson, Hays, Dallas, Harris, Fort Bend, Jefferson, El Paso, Bexar, Travis, Pinellas, Palm Beach, Orange, Seminole, Duval, Polk, Cobb, Gwinnett, Fulton, Wake, Mecklenburg, Guilford, Forsyth, New Hanover, Chesterfield, Virginia Beach City, Chesapeake City, Mahoning, Trumbull, Hamilton, Franklin, Lorrain, Lake, Montogmery, Delaware, Monroe, Macomb, Saginaw, Eaton, Kent, Clinton, Isabella, Van Buren, Washtenaw, Racine, Kenosha, Grant, Lafayette, Richland, Crawford, Vernon, Jackson, Trempealeau, Columbia, Dunn, Dane, Brown, Outagamie, Winnebago, Anoka, Blue Earth, Nicollet, Winona, Houston, Mower, Beltrami, Clay, Mahnomen, Freeborn, Washington, Dakota, Cerro Gordo, Dubuque, Jefferson, Polk, Warren, Winneshiek, Marshall, Buchanan, Des Moines, Dallas, Boone, Clinton, Muscatine, Black Hawk, Linn, Eire, Beaver, Allegheny, Chester, Lancaster, Lackawanna, Northampton, Dauphin, Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware, Centre, Cumberland, Sullivan, Coos, Carroll, Hillsborough, Rockingham, Kennebec, Franklin, Oxford, Penobscot, Somerset, Androscoggin, Johnson, Douglas, Shawnee, Riley, Sedgewick, Jefferson, Arapahoe, El Paso, Pueblo, Adams, Huerfano, Chaffee, Larimer, Clear Creek, Garfield, Pinal, Yuma, Apache, Navajo, Coconino, Pima, Maricopa, Hildalgo, Sandoval, Dona Ana, Santa Fe, Ada, Teton, Gallatin, Park, Lewis and Clark, Clallam, Grays Harbor, Mason, Pacific, Cowlitz, Spokane, Yakima, Marion, Yamhill, Tillamook, Columbia, Polk, Clackamas, Lincoln, St. Louis, Jackson, Clay, Boone, Hamilton, Tippecanoe, LaPorte, Porter, Delaware, and many others.

I can't wait to see how many new votes Biden gets in those counties!

You do recognize that Biden could have historic performances in many of these counties (kinda like how Hillary Clinton did in 2016) and still lose the electoral college?

A +39 poll from Titanium D CA tells us very little on the state of the race

[Del Tachi]

The theory that CA is "maxed out" for Democrats was always silly and didn’t even make sense when Trump's position was less catastrophic than it is now.

That said, I don’t think OC and Westchester will be what Democrats will be patting themselves on the back for on election night if that margin is accurate. DFW and Houston, though...

What does the margin in California tell us about election results in Texas or any other state?  Hillary Clinton had the best margin for any Democrat in California since FDR and she still lost the national election, lol

Democrats standing around celebrating a +39 poll in Titanium D California makes me think they're campaigning to win the NPV

Democratic trends in Texas and Arizona maybe?

How does a poll from California inform us about trends in TX/AZ.  We have polls from AZ and TX for that reason lol

And folks pretend like I’m the crazy one here

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Go on Democrats, keep patting yourselves on the back about all the new votes y'all will be getting in OC and Westchester this November!  The election is Likely D! 

This is such a dumb post. Biden is not particularly strong (for a democrat) in California, and is likely only winning by this outsized margin due to his 8-10 point lead nationally, which if you have seen recent polling, is translating into swing states.

Or is Biden winning by 8-10 pts nationally due to an outsize (+39!) lead in California?  With California being >10% of the national population, the difference really is impossible to identify.  Polling indicates that Biden's leads in swing states (MI, FL, PA, NC, etc.) average smaller than his lead in national polls.  There is no national election for president.   

I don't see how it's controversial to note that Biden expanding his lead (greatly!, at least over the 2016 result) in a Titanium D state like California translates to him being in a better position to win the electoral college.  Somehow red avatars thought by post was somehow about Texas?  lol

Yeah. These states were right of the nation in 2016 and they almost certainly will be in 2020 as well. However, I don't think you can reasonably conclude that a 70-30 Biden win in California wouldn't also indicate nationwide gains among whatever demographics are propelling him to that in CA. And I think you know that.

[Del Tachi]

Go on Democrats, keep patting yourselves on the back about all the new votes y'all will be getting in OC and Westchester this November!  The election is Likely D! 

This is such a dumb post. Biden is not particularly strong (for a democrat) in California, and is likely only winning by this outsized margin due to his 8-10 point lead nationally, which if you have seen recent polling, is translating into swing states.

Or is Biden winning by 8-10 pts nationally due to an outsize (+39!) lead in California?  With California being >10% of the national population, the difference really is impossible to identify.  Polling indicates that Biden's leads in swing states (MI, FL, PA, NC, etc.) average smaller than his lead in national polls.  There is no national election for president.   

I don't see how it's controversial to note that Biden expanding his lead (greatly!, at least over the 2016 result) in a Titanium D state like California translates to him being in a better position to win the electoral college.  Somehow red avatars thought by post was somehow about Texas?  lol

Yeah. These states were right of the nation in 2016 and they almost certainly will be in 2020 as well. However, I don't think you can reasonably conclude that a 70-30 Biden win in California wouldn't also indicate nationwide gains among whatever demographics are propelling him to that in CA. And I think you know that.

That’s right, because there’s no local or otherwise idiosyncratic factors that could be driving Biden’s margin in a non-contested, super safe state of 40M that aren’t perfectly exportable to any suburb in the country. 

Let’s watch the congratulatory tones continue. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

The theory that CA is "maxed out" for Democrats was always silly and didn’t even make sense when Trump's position was less catastrophic than it is now.

That said, I don’t think OC and Westchester will be what Democrats will be patting themselves on the back for on election night if that margin is accurate. DFW and Houston, though...

What does the margin in California tell us about election results in Texas or any other state?  Hillary Clinton had the best margin for any Democrat in California since FDR and she still lost the national election, lol

Democrats standing around celebrating a +39 poll in Titanium D California makes me think they're campaigning to win the NPV

Democratic trends in Texas and Arizona maybe?

How does a poll from California inform us about trends in TX/AZ.  We have polls from AZ and TX for that reason lol

And folks pretend like I’m the crazy one here

Are you really that obtuse? Today we had a poll where Biden is ahead in Texas.
Arizona has been polled to death and Biden is ahead by a respectable margin. You act as if everyone tries to speculate the state of the race based solely on this California poll.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Go on Democrats, keep patting yourselves on the back about all the new votes y'all will be getting in OC and Westchester this November!  The election is Likely D!  

This is such a dumb post. Biden is not particularly strong (for a democrat) in California, and is likely only winning by this outsized margin due to his 8-10 point lead nationally, which if you have seen recent polling, is translating into swing states.

Or is Biden winning by 8-10 pts nationally due to an outsize (+39!) lead in California?  With California being >10% of the national population, the difference really is impossible to identify.  Polling indicates that Biden's leads in swing states (MI, FL, PA, NC, etc.) average smaller than his lead in national polls.  There is no national election for president.    

I don't see how it's controversial to note that Biden expanding his lead (greatly!, at least over the 2016 result) in a Titanium D state like California translates to him being in a better position to win the electoral college.  Somehow red avatars thought by post was somehow about Texas?  lol

Yeah. These states were right of the nation in 2016 and they almost certainly will be in 2020 as well. However, I don't think you can reasonably conclude that a 70-30 Biden win in California wouldn't also indicate nationwide gains among whatever demographics are propelling him to that in CA. And I think you know that.

That’s right, because there’s no local or otherwise idiosyncratic factors that could be driving Biden’s margin in a non-contested, super safe state of 40M that aren’t perfectly exportable to any suburb in the country.  

Let’s watch the congratulatory tones continue.  

You seriously think Biden could gain eight points in California and zero in swing states? Universal swing isn't a thing but neither is completely isolated swing. Besides, if Biden gained eight points in California, that explains gaining about one point nationwide. It seems pretty damn clear that Biden is up by more than one point over Clinton 2016.

[DrScholl]

Go on Democrats, keep patting yourselves on the back about all the new votes y'all will be getting in OC and Westchester this November!  The election is Likely D! 

Meanwhile conservatives will pat themselves on the back for Trump winning counties with a few hundred people in them that have voted Republican forever.

Based on your own admission, those voters count more in the electoral college....so....

Not really since many of those counties are losing population all the time.

[Devout Centrist]

You do recognize that Biden could have historic performances in many of these counties (kinda like how Hillary Clinton did in 2016) and still lose the electoral college?

I said 'new votes', not 'lose votes'

[S019]

Could this mean Mike Garcia is DOA?

Yeah, it would, this would mean Biden is winning his seat by over 15 points, but he's been DOA since he won the special

Would that also mean TJ Cox is safe?

Yes, every sitting Democratic representative in California is safe at this margin

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Good for Trump

[Progressive Pessimist]

California polls are always frustrating to me, it seems like Biden can never win. If a poll is showing him doing even slightly worse than Clinton then he has a Latino problem or isn't going to get the voters he needs to win nationally, or whatever. If he is leading by more than Clinton won by, like with this poll, then an electoral vote-popular vote split is inevitable and Biden will lose the election because any new votes he gets are automatically all going to be from safe Democratic states.

[Del Tachi]

You do recognize that Biden could have historic performances in many of these counties (kinda like how Hillary Clinton did in 2016) and still lose the electoral college?

I said 'new votes', not 'lose votes'

Joe Biden could gain tens or hundreds of thousands of new votes in states like TX, GA, FL and NC (irrespective of the margin) and still come up short in flipping those states.  Based on the aggregate predictions on this site that's what many posters believe will happen, in fact. 

The great thing about the electoral college (for Trump) is that it doesn't matter if he wins TX by 800k, 80k or only 8k votes.  He still gets to walk away with 38 electoral votes.  Similarly, it changes the electoral calculus absolutely zilch if Biden bests Trump in CA by 6 million votes (as opposed to Clinton's 4.7 million).

[Del Tachi]

Go on Democrats, keep patting yourselves on the back about all the new votes y'all will be getting in OC and Westchester this November!  The election is Likely D!  

This is such a dumb post. Biden is not particularly strong (for a democrat) in California, and is likely only winning by this outsized margin due to his 8-10 point lead nationally, which if you have seen recent polling, is translating into swing states.

Or is Biden winning by 8-10 pts nationally due to an outsize (+39!) lead in California?  With California being >10% of the national population, the difference really is impossible to identify.  Polling indicates that Biden's leads in swing states (MI, FL, PA, NC, etc.) average smaller than his lead in national polls.  There is no national election for president.    

I don't see how it's controversial to note that Biden expanding his lead (greatly!, at least over the 2016 result) in a Titanium D state like California translates to him being in a better position to win the electoral college.  Somehow red avatars thought by post was somehow about Texas?  lol

Yeah. These states were right of the nation in 2016 and they almost certainly will be in 2020 as well. However, I don't think you can reasonably conclude that a 70-30 Biden win in California wouldn't also indicate nationwide gains among whatever demographics are propelling him to that in CA. And I think you know that.

The only demographic propelling Joe Biden to those margins in California (in only one poll, no less) is Californians, lol.  CA has trended D five elections in a row

We have polls from this week showing the race within the MOE in TX, WI, MI, GA, and NC.    

[redjohn]

You do recognize that Biden could have historic performances in many of these counties (kinda like how Hillary Clinton did in 2016) and still lose the electoral college?

I said 'new votes', not 'lose votes'

Joe Biden could gain tens or hundreds of thousands of new votes in states like TX, GA, FL and NC (irrespective of the margin) and still come up short in flipping those states.  Based on the aggregate predictions on this site that's what many posters believe will happen, in fact. 

The great thing about the electoral college (for Trump) is that it doesn't matter if he wins TX by 800k, 80k or only 8k votes.  He still gets to walk away with 38 electoral votes.  Similarly, it changes the electoral calculus absolutely zilch if Biden bests Trump in CA by 6 million votes (as opposed to Clinton's 4.7 million).

I think people here are aware of how the electoral college works. The implication is moreso that if Trump is losing TX by 8k votes, he's probably also losing AZ+NC+GA+FL. Nobody's arguing that Biden winning CA by 39 points means Biden will win TX by 5, but that trends that can be seen in a poll in CA are not completely isolated from the rest of the country and are good signs for Biden among demographics he's polling very well with in CA.

[Devout Centrist]

You do recognize that Biden could have historic performances in many of these counties (kinda like how Hillary Clinton did in 2016) and still lose the electoral college?

I said 'new votes', not 'lose votes'

Joe Biden could gain tens or hundreds of thousands of new votes in states like TX, GA, FL and NC (irrespective of the margin) and still come up short in flipping those states.  Based on the aggregate predictions on this site that's what many posters believe will happen, in fact. 

The great thing about the electoral college (for Trump) is that it doesn't matter if he wins TX by 800k, 80k or only 8k votes.  He still gets to walk away with 38 electoral votes.  Similarly, it changes the electoral calculus absolutely zilch if Biden bests Trump in CA by 6 million votes (as opposed to Clinton's 4.7 million).

If you look at the ones I listed, most of those counties are in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, and Iowa. Not very many in Texas, Georgia, or North Carolina

[Del Tachi]

You do recognize that Biden could have historic performances in many of these counties (kinda like how Hillary Clinton did in 2016) and still lose the electoral college?

I said 'new votes', not 'lose votes'

Joe Biden could gain tens or hundreds of thousands of new votes in states like TX, GA, FL and NC (irrespective of the margin) and still come up short in flipping those states.  Based on the aggregate predictions on this site that's what many posters believe will happen, in fact. 

The great thing about the electoral college (for Trump) is that it doesn't matter if he wins TX by 800k, 80k or only 8k votes.  He still gets to walk away with 38 electoral votes.  Similarly, it changes the electoral calculus absolutely zilch if Biden bests Trump in CA by 6 million votes (as opposed to Clinton's 4.7 million).

I think people here are aware of how the electoral college works. The implication is moreso that if Trump is losing TX by 8k votes, he's probably also losing AZ+NC+GA+FL. Nobody's arguing that Biden winning CA by 39 points means Biden will win TX by 5, but that trends that can be seen in a poll in CA are not completely isolated from the rest of the country and are good signs for Biden among demographics he's polling very well with in CA.

No, that's actually exactly what people are implying in this thread.  Biden having a 79-17 lead among college educated White women in California is not going to affect the race in Georgia, Texas, Florida or Michigan.  No one seems to admit that college-educated White women in California are different than those in other states, lol

[Del Tachi]

You do recognize that Biden could have historic performances in many of these counties (kinda like how Hillary Clinton did in 2016) and still lose the electoral college?

I said 'new votes', not 'lose votes'

Joe Biden could gain tens or hundreds of thousands of new votes in states like TX, GA, FL and NC (irrespective of the margin) and still come up short in flipping those states.  Based on the aggregate predictions on this site that's what many posters believe will happen, in fact. 

The great thing about the electoral college (for Trump) is that it doesn't matter if he wins TX by 800k, 80k or only 8k votes.  He still gets to walk away with 38 electoral votes.  Similarly, it changes the electoral calculus absolutely zilch if Biden bests Trump in CA by 6 million votes (as opposed to Clinton's 4.7 million).

If you look at the ones I listed, most of those counties are in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, and Iowa. Not very many in Texas, Georgia, or North Carolina

Oh yeah, so remind me which part of California is analogous to Mahoning County, OH or Cerro Gordo, IA?  I'll wait

[wbrocks67]

CA polls tend to underestimate Ds, so this poll is actually REALLY devastating for Trump

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Go on Democrats, keep patting yourselves on the back about all the new votes y'all will be getting in OC and Westchester this November!  The election is Likely D! 

This is such a dumb post. Biden is not particularly strong (for a democrat) in California, and is likely only winning by this outsized margin due to his 8-10 point lead nationally, which if you have seen recent polling, is translating into swing states.

Or is Biden winning by 8-10 pts nationally due to an outsize (+39!) lead in California?  With California being >10% of the national population, the difference really is impossible to identify.  Polling indicates that Biden's leads in swing states (MI, FL, PA, NC, etc.) average smaller than his lead in national polls.  There is no national election for president.   

I don't see how it's controversial to note that Biden expanding his lead (greatly!, at least over the 2016 result) in a Titanium D state like California translates to him being in a better position to win the electoral college.  Somehow red avatars thought by post was somehow about Texas?  lol

Yeah. These states were right of the nation in 2016 and they almost certainly will be in 2020 as well. However, I don't think you can reasonably conclude that a 70-30 Biden win in California wouldn't also indicate nationwide gains among whatever demographics are propelling him to that in CA. And I think you know that.

That’s right, because there’s no local or otherwise idiosyncratic factors that could be driving Biden’s margin in a non-contested, super safe state of 40M that aren’t perfectly exportable to any suburb in the country. 

Let’s watch the congratulatory tones continue. 

Even ignoring this demographically-ignorant take, where else do you think Biden is gaining? It is an objective fact that Biden is currently outperforming HRC by more than 1% nationally. It is also an objective fact that should Biden win California by the margin shown in this poll, he increases his national vote share over HRC '16 by 1%. Therefore it is inarguable that Biden is gaining on HRC '16 in more places than just California and one can logically assume that the demographics he is gaining the most with in CA are the same demographics he is improving with in other states.