CA-UC Berkeley: Biden +39

[VAR]

Biden 67%
Trump 28%

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-08-04/trumps-base-erodes-new-poll-california

Was Biden 58/31 in February.

[BobbieMac]

UNS breaks down in truly deep blue or red states, but this would point to Biden +11 nationally.

One concern is Biden is racking up loads more votes here, where it doesnt matter, and not elsewhere.

Either way, presumably this would impact a lot of house races?

[wbrocks67]

UNS breaks down in truly deep blue or red states, but this would point to Biden +11 nationally.

One concern is Biden is racking up loads more votes here, where it doesnt matter, and not elsewhere.

Either way, presumably this would impact a lot of house races?

Yeah, if this was the result then we would not only be talking about retaining the house races we already have, but maybe even expanding into 1 or 2 more?

[Oryxslayer]

UNS breaks down in truly deep blue or red states, but this would point to Biden +11 nationally.

One concern is Biden is racking up loads more votes here, where it doesnt matter, and not elsewhere.

Either way, presumably this would impact a lot of house races?

Yeah, if this was the result then we would not only be talking about retaining the house races we already have, but maybe even expanding into 1 or 2 more?

Possibly. Biden does have a lot of room to grow in the 2018 flip seats, and all signs so far a pointing in that direction - with the exception of the red Enclaves like Calimesa and Newport Beach. Gains will initially come disproportionately from these regions. We have also seen close internal numbers out of CA-04 and CA-50, which suggest that Biden is gaining in traditional red suburbs, but is still struggling in rurals and red exurbs...as expected. This means that there could be a reduction in the Trump seats from 7 to 6 or 5, but it would be close given that all 7 still have good rural or exurban presences. A flip would still be well to the right of the nation, similar to how carried safe GOP WI/MI seats in 2012, but the GOP wasn't that scared.

[pbrower2a]

About two-thirds of the state’s voters see the health threat from the coronavirus getting worse. They back Biden 84% to 11%. By contrast, about 1 in 8 say the health threat is getting less serious; they back Trump 87% to 10%. About 1 in 5 voters say the threat from the virus is about the same as it’s been; they’re closely divided.

......

Opinions of Trump, by contrast, have gotten worse since the winter. A Berkeley IGS poll in January showed 33% of the state’s voters approved of the way he is handling his job as president. In the most recent poll, that’s dropped to 29%, with 71% disapproving, including 63% who say they “strongly” disapprove.

.......

In California, the decline shows up in the more conservative regions of the state. In the Inland Empire, approval of Trump dropped 8 points, from 43% in January to 35% in the current poll. In the Central Valley, it dropped 7 points, from 44% in January to 37% now.

The only constituency not nominally partisan in which Trump wins in California is "evangelical Christians"; Trump wins 56% of them.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-08-04/trumps-base-erodes-new-poll-california

In essence...

Biden 67, Trump 28

Trump approval 29%, disapproval 71% (strong disapproval 63%)... approval down from 33% in January.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Loves it.

[Del Tachi]

Go on Democrats, keep patting yourselves on the back about all the new votes y'all will be getting in OC and Westchester this November!  The election is Likely D! 

[It’s so Joever]

Go on Democrats, keep patting yourselves on the back about all the new votes y'all will be getting in OC and Westchester this November!  The election is Likely D! 

You have become the most insufferable poster on here.

[Holmes]

Go on Democrats, keep patting yourselves on the back about all the new votes y'all will be getting in OC and Westchester this November!  The election is Likely D! 

Ok we will.

[DrScholl]

Go on Democrats, keep patting yourselves on the back about all the new votes y'all will be getting in OC and Westchester this November!  The election is Likely D! 

Meanwhile conservatives will pat themselves on the back for Trump winning counties with a few hundred people in them that have voted Republican forever.

[MT Treasurer]

The theory that CA is "maxed out" for Democrats was always silly and didn’t even make sense when Trump's position was less catastrophic than it is now.

That said, I don’t think OC and Westchester will be what Democrats will be patting themselves on the back for on election night if that margin is accurate. DFW and Houston, though...

[Bidenworth2020]

Go on Democrats, keep patting yourselves on the back about all the new votes y'all will be getting in OC and Westchester this November!  The election is Likely D! 

This is such a dumb post. Biden is not particularly strong (for a democrat) in California, and is likely only winning by this outsized margin due to his 8-10 point lead nationally, which if you have seen recent polling, is translating into swing states.

[Devout Centrist]

Go on Democrats, keep patting yourselves on the back about all the new votes y'all will be getting in OC and Westchester this November!  The election is Likely D!  

That will be nice, but I'm more excited about the new votes Biden will get in Tarrant, Denton, Collin, Williamson, Hays, Dallas, Harris, Fort Bend, Jefferson, El Paso, Bexar, Travis, Pinellas, Palm Beach, Orange, Seminole, Duval, Polk, Cobb, Gwinnett, Fulton, Wake, Mecklenburg, Guilford, Forsyth, New Hanover, Chesterfield, Virginia Beach City, Chesapeake City, Mahoning, Trumbull, Hamilton, Franklin, Lorrain, Lake, Montogmery, Delaware, Monroe, Macomb, Saginaw, Eaton, Kent, Clinton, Isabella, Van Buren, Washtenaw, Racine, Kenosha, Grant, Lafayette, Richland, Crawford, Vernon, Jackson, Trempealeau, Columbia, Dunn, Dane, Brown, Outagamie, Winnebago, Anoka, Blue Earth, Nicollet, Winona, Houston, Mower, Beltrami, Clay, Mahnomen, Freeborn, Washington, Dakota, Cerro Gordo, Dubuque, Jefferson, Polk, Warren, Winneshiek, Marshall, Buchanan, Des Moines, Dallas, Boone, Clinton, Muscatine, Black Hawk, Linn, Eire, Beaver, Allegheny, Chester, Lancaster, Lackawanna, Northampton, Dauphin, Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware, Centre, Cumberland, Sullivan, Coos, Carroll, Hillsborough, Rockingham, Kennebec, Franklin, Oxford, Penobscot, Somerset, Androscoggin, Johnson, Douglas, Shawnee, Riley, Sedgewick, Jefferson, Arapahoe, El Paso, Pueblo, Adams, Huerfano, Chaffee, Larimer, Clear Creek, Garfield, Pinal, Yuma, Apache, Navajo, Coconino, Pima, Maricopa, Hildalgo, Sandoval, Dona Ana, Santa Fe, Ada, Teton, Gallatin, Park, Lewis and Clark, Clallam, Grays Harbor, Mason, Pacific, Cowlitz, Spokane, Yakima, Marion, Yamhill, Tillamook, Columbia, Polk, Clackamas, Lincoln, St. Louis, Jackson, Clay, Boone, Hamilton, Tippecanoe, LaPorte, Porter, Delaware, and many others.

I can't wait to see how many new votes Biden gets in those counties!

[Illini Moderate]

Go on Democrats, keep patting yourselves on the back about all the new votes y'all will be getting in OC and Westchester this November!  The election is Likely D!  

I think we're moreso patting ourselves on the back about all the new/returning votes from MI, WI, PA, NC, FL, AZ, GA, OH, and TX. But thanks bud!

[Yoda]

Go on Democrats, keep patting yourselves on the back about all the new votes y'all will be getting in OC and Westchester this November!  The election is Likely D! 

You have become the most insufferable poster on here.

I mean, despite his obvious sarcasm, he's still not wrong tho? Except maybe the election is probably Very Likely D.

[President Johnson]

FREEDOM STATE

[ProudModerate2]

I love my state.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Go on Democrats, keep patting yourselves on the back about all the new votes y'all will be getting in OC and Westchester this November!  The election is Likely D! 

You have become the most insufferable poster on here.

I mean, despite his obvious sarcasm, he's still not wrong tho? Except maybe the election is probably Very Likely D.

Devout Centrist stated it best

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The theory that CA is "maxed out" for Democrats was always silly and didn’t even make sense when Trump's position was less catastrophic than it is now.

Absolutely. Just because all the OC House seats went blue doesn't mean Dems are "maxed out". There's still plenty of room to fall vote-wise just in OC & the Inland Empire.

And that's not even getting into the legislative & local seats. There's a good 3-4 GOP Senate seats that could flip this November, bringing their representation to single digits

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

The theory that CA is "maxed out" for Democrats was always silly and didn’t even make sense when Trump's position was less catastrophic than it is now.

Absolutely. Just because all the OC House seats went blue doesn't mean Dems are "maxed out". There's still plenty of room to fall vote-wise just in OC & the Inland Empire.

And that's not even getting into the legislative seats. There's a good 3-4 GOP Senate seats that could flip this November, bringing their representation to single digits

Agreed. On a good night for Democrats, they could win all but one state Senate seat in the odd-numbered class.

[Badger]

I absolutely always love to hear conservatives wring their hands about how liberal dominated and governed California is supposedly somehow, someway, if you squint just hard at this specially prepared charts just right, and economic Basket Case. After all, it's totally should be because reasons!

But of course it's not. It's thriving magnificently. The 6th largest economy in the world if it was a separate country I believe? And all because it has a state government and culture that highly values education and learning, liberal immigration policies and diversity, a strong State infrastructure, and basically is the antique Kansas under Brown back.

[S019]

RIP GOP hopes of a comeback in Orange County, if this is close to accurate, with uniform swing, CA-48 would be Biden+10.6, and that was the closest Clinton seat in the state. I'd imagine such terrible numbers across the board also mean the GOP's state legislative seats in OC are gone, as well.

[I’m not Stu]

Could this mean Mike Garcia is DOA?

[S019]

Could this mean Mike Garcia is DOA?

Yeah, it would, this would mean Biden is winning his seat by over 15 points, but he's been DOA since he won the special

[I’m not Stu]

Could this mean Mike Garcia is DOA?

Yeah, it would, this would mean Biden is winning his seat by over 15 points, but he's been DOA since he won the special

Would that also mean TJ Cox is safe?