Morning Consult: Cornyn +6 (TX), Graham +1 (SC), McConnell +17 (KY), Tuberville +17 (AL)
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  Morning Consult: Cornyn +6 (TX), Graham +1 (SC), McConnell +17 (KY), Tuberville +17 (AL)
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Author Topic: Morning Consult: Cornyn +6 (TX), Graham +1 (SC), McConnell +17 (KY), Tuberville +17 (AL)  (Read 834 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« on: August 04, 2020, 05:45:36 AM »

https://morningconsult.com/2020/08/04/senate-presidential-polling-alabama-kentucky-sc-texas/

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Skye
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« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2020, 05:47:41 AM »

I'm a bit surprised with how competitive SC has been.

Also, RIP Jones.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2020, 06:11:10 AM »

Looks like those internal Harrison polls with the race tied (and Civiqs) were accurate. Still a lot of undecided, but should be a bit worrying for Graham that he's this low in every poll now.

TX is about what we've seen - Cornyn pretty undefined, and Hegar still trying to get her name out there. She has an outside shot, if Biden wins.

KY and AL, much like the prez results, seem way too pro-R. It's a heavy lift for Jones and McGrath, but I really don't see either of them losing by nearly 20%, especially Jones, who isn't even out running Biden here.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2020, 08:58:02 AM »

McGrath will lose in a blue wave by 20 pts
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #4 on: August 04, 2020, 09:04:12 AM »

I think there are a ton of college ed whites in places like Greenville/Spartanburg/Lexington/Berkeley/Dorchester/Colleton/Charleston that are going to break for Jaime.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #5 on: August 04, 2020, 09:12:27 AM »

I'm a bit surprised with how competitive SC has been.

Also, RIP Jones.

I'm not. South Carolina, while remaining a Republican state, seems to be trending to the left, and Joe Cunningham's victory in SC-01 in 2018 is evidence of that. Moreover, that year's gubernatorial election was a relatively competitive race, as McMaster won by "only" 8%, and Lindsay Graham has lost some of the appeal which he once had with independents and Democrats by turning himself into a Trump lapdog. He'll still win of course, but it'll be the closest race of his career.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #6 on: August 04, 2020, 10:12:08 AM »

I just want to point out that the vast majority of the “undecideds” in the SC poll are Republicans.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: August 04, 2020, 10:20:31 AM »

I just want to point out that the vast majority of the “undecideds” in the SC poll are Republicans.

Which would probably only inch it though to Trump's +5 margin, which at that point, still comes down to who is going to turn out. If Harrison can get a supercharged black vote, for example, he has a chance. It won't be easy tho
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GM Team Member NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #8 on: August 04, 2020, 11:39:52 AM »

The South Carolina and Texas numbers seem about right, while the Kentucky and Alabama numbers really don't.

I'd add at least 2% of the undecided to both Jones and Tuberville (while the margin is correct, both Jones and Tuberville's numbers seems to low), while I don't think McConnell is actually over 50% in Kentucky.

I'd guess the numbers there at this moment are something like:

Mitch McConnell 46%
Amy McGrath 39%
Brad Barron (L) 5%
Undecided 15%

I think there are probably more "leaning" undecided voters in Kentucky, who are leaning towards McConnell or McGrath, but haven't made a final decision yet, hence the 15% undecided.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: August 04, 2020, 12:13:02 PM »

McGrath is gonna be blanched like Jones, no money should be poured into either race

Mackler has a better chance than either one of them
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Yoda
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« Reply #10 on: August 04, 2020, 01:01:27 PM »

Man, I would be one happy camper if Graham lost.
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S019
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« Reply #11 on: August 04, 2020, 02:14:41 PM »

Graham oddly seems somewhat vulnerable, while Jones is doomed and McConnell is unsurprisingly safe. Also Cornyn is matching Trump's share, so I have to wonder if a lot of these Biden voters will back Hegar in the end, and I'm guessing a similar dynamic will play out in SC where most Trumpers will come home to Graham. Anyways, AL and KY are clearly Safe R, even in a D+10-15 environment.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: August 04, 2020, 02:44:31 PM »

Coincidentally,  AK went the same way as KY and AL, Gross was supposed to upset Sullivan but he is gonna get blanched by 13 pts
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President Johnson
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« Reply #13 on: August 04, 2020, 02:54:40 PM »

Jones will do better than Joe Biden, but he's done one way or the other. Looking forward the Attorney General Doug Jones in a Biden Administration.

Also, Lindsey Graham isn't going to lose.
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #14 on: August 22, 2020, 12:32:32 AM »

New Poll: Texas Senator by Morning Consult on 2020-08-02

Summary: D: 38%, R: 44%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #15 on: August 22, 2020, 12:39:16 AM »

New Poll: South Carolina Senator by Morning Consult on 2020-08-03

Summary: D: 43%, R: 44%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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