Morning Consult: Biden +1 in Texas, Trump +5 (SC), +24 (KY), +22 (AL)

[wbrocks67]

Hm, KY and AL seem a little too pro-Trump (only a 5-6% shift from 2016?), but TX lines up with everything we've seen, and SC has seemed like a mid/high single digits race, so that one lines up too.

[wbrocks67]

Hm, KY and AL seem a little too pro-Trump (only a 5-6% shift from 2016?), but TX lines up with everything we've seen, and SC has seemed like a mid/high single digits race, so that one lines up too.

You know universal swing isn’t a thing right? Biden’s Swing is obviously going to be a lot less in the rural parts of the south.

Don't be condescending. Obviously I realize that. But you would think if Biden was winning 8-10 nationally, and considering he's a way better candidate for places like KY and AL compared to HRC, you'd think he'd be faring a little better than a 5-6 pt swing.

[wbrocks67]

None of this ads up except Texas which is slightly off from where I think it is

Texas: It’s close but feels like a Trump low single digits state
South Carolina: Doubtful. Probably Trump +10-12
Kentucky and Alabama: Safe Red states but probably in the teens those numbers seem slightly high. Especially when Jones is polling -8 to -12. That means 10% are Jones/Trump voters?

Trump won SC by 14 in 2016. You think it would only shift a few %?

[wbrocks67]

None of this ads up except Texas which is slightly off from where I think it is

Texas: It’s close but feels like a Trump low single digits state
South Carolina: Doubtful. Probably Trump +10-12
Kentucky and Alabama: Safe Red states but probably in the teens those numbers seem slightly high. Especially when Jones is polling -8 to -12. That means 10% are Jones/Trump voters?

Why would South Carolina have moved right relative to the rest of the country?

Especially after the Rep only won by 8% in 2018

[wbrocks67]

Okay, other than that crappy SPRY Strategies poll (who?), every Texas poll this last month shows Biden narrowly up. I don't give a flying leap what that campaign staffer of Biden's said about the 27 or so media markets in the state making it too big a Target to handle. Considering how many competitive congressional races there are plus the potential flipping the State House with HUUUUGE redistricting implications for the next decade, why the f*** is his campaign reportedly writing this state off?!?

I have been as bearish as anyone about Texas truly "being there yet", plus not wanting to repeat Hillary's mistake of ignoring the must win states by swinging for a landslide, but maybe it's time to say enough is enough and make a serious play here?

They're not

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-campaign-texas-staff-resources/