Morning Consult: Biden +1 in Texas, Trump +5 (SC), +24 (KY), +22 (AL)
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  Morning Consult: Biden +1 in Texas, Trump +5 (SC), +24 (KY), +22 (AL)
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Author Topic: Morning Consult: Biden +1 in Texas, Trump +5 (SC), +24 (KY), +22 (AL)  (Read 2324 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« on: August 04, 2020, 05:42:56 AM »

https://morningconsult.com/2020/08/04/senate-presidential-polling-alabama-kentucky-sc-texas/

Texas
Biden        47
Trump       46

South Carolina
Trump        49
Biden         44

Kentucky
Trump       59
Biden        35

Alabama
Trump       58
Biden        36
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2020, 06:07:57 AM »

Hm, KY and AL seem a little too pro-Trump (only a 5-6% shift from 2016?), but TX lines up with everything we've seen, and SC has seemed like a mid/high single digits race, so that one lines up too.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2020, 06:09:04 AM »

Compared to the 2016 election:

Texas: 10 point swing towards Biden.
South Carolina: 9 point swing towards Biden.
Kentucky: 6 point swing towards Biden.
Alabama: 6 point swing towards Biden.

Seems pretty consistent with a 8-10 point national lead for Biden.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2020, 06:16:19 AM »

Hm, KY and AL seem a little too pro-Trump (only a 5-6% shift from 2016?), but TX lines up with everything we've seen, and SC has seemed like a mid/high single digits race, so that one lines up too.

You know universal swing isn’t a thing right? Biden’s Swing is obviously going to be a lot less in the rural parts of the south.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: August 04, 2020, 06:17:27 AM »

Hm, KY and AL seem a little too pro-Trump (only a 5-6% shift from 2016?), but TX lines up with everything we've seen, and SC has seemed like a mid/high single digits race, so that one lines up too.

You know universal swing isn’t a thing right? Biden’s Swing is obviously going to be a lot less in the rural parts of the south.

Don't be condescending. Obviously I realize that. But you would think if Biden was winning 8-10 nationally, and considering he's a way better candidate for places like KY and AL compared to HRC, you'd think he'd be faring a little better than a 5-6 pt swing.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #5 on: August 04, 2020, 06:25:31 AM »

None of this ads up except Texas which is slightly off from where I think it is

Texas: It’s close but feels like a Trump low single digits state
South Carolina: Doubtful. Probably Trump +10-12
Kentucky and Alabama: Safe Red states but probably in the teens those numbers seem slightly high. Especially when Jones is polling -8 to -12. That means 10% are Jones/Trump voters?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: August 04, 2020, 06:26:38 AM »

None of this ads up except Texas which is slightly off from where I think it is

Texas: It’s close but feels like a Trump low single digits state
South Carolina: Doubtful. Probably Trump +10-12
Kentucky and Alabama: Safe Red states but probably in the teens those numbers seem slightly high. Especially when Jones is polling -8 to -12. That means 10% are Jones/Trump voters?

Trump won SC by 14 in 2016. You think it would only shift a few %?
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BobbieMac
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« Reply #7 on: August 04, 2020, 06:43:53 AM »

Compared to the 2016 election:

Texas: 10 point swing towards Biden.
South Carolina: 9 point swing towards Biden.
Kentucky: 6 point swing towards Biden.
Alabama: 6 point swing towards Biden.

Seems pretty consistent with a 8-10 point national lead for Biden.

Internally consistent with their national poll of Biden +9. Its not unusual for deep red states to be a bit less swingey.
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #8 on: August 04, 2020, 08:06:57 AM »

None of this ads up except Texas which is slightly off from where I think it is

Texas: It’s close but feels like a Trump low single digits state
South Carolina: Doubtful. Probably Trump +10-12
Kentucky and Alabama: Safe Red states but probably in the teens those numbers seem slightly high. Especially when Jones is polling -8 to -12. That means 10% are Jones/Trump voters?

Why would South Carolina have moved right relative to the rest of the country?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: August 04, 2020, 08:08:03 AM »

None of this ads up except Texas which is slightly off from where I think it is

Texas: It’s close but feels like a Trump low single digits state
South Carolina: Doubtful. Probably Trump +10-12
Kentucky and Alabama: Safe Red states but probably in the teens those numbers seem slightly high. Especially when Jones is polling -8 to -12. That means 10% are Jones/Trump voters?

Why would South Carolina have moved right relative to the rest of the country?

Especially after the Rep only won by 8% in 2018
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Gustaf
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« Reply #10 on: August 04, 2020, 08:19:40 AM »

Don't forget MoE. All these polls are within 2% of a swing to Biden of 8% so it makes sense.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #11 on: August 04, 2020, 11:48:21 AM »

None of this ads up except Texas which is slightly off from where I think it is

Texas: It’s close but feels like a Trump low single digits state
South Carolina: Doubtful. Probably Trump +10-12
Kentucky and Alabama: Safe Red states but probably in the teens those numbers seem slightly high. Especially when Jones is polling -8 to -12. That means 10% are Jones/Trump voters?
Your analysis is off base per usual.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #12 on: August 04, 2020, 04:30:44 PM »

Lmao trump is not only up 5 in South Carolina
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #13 on: August 04, 2020, 05:10:21 PM »

Hm, KY and AL seem a little too pro-Trump (only a 5-6% shift from 2016?), but TX lines up with everything we've seen, and SC has seemed like a mid/high single digits race, so that one lines up too.

You know universal swing isn’t a thing right? Biden’s Swing is obviously going to be a lot less in the rural parts of the south.

Don't be condescending. Obviously I realize that. But you would think if Biden was winning 8-10 nationally, and considering he's a way better candidate for places like KY and AL compared to HRC, you'd think he'd be faring a little better than a 5-6 pt swing.

Well, no, obviously you do not realize that if you think Biden will do better than a 5-6 pt swing virtually everywhere, but only win by 8-10 points nationally. What are some states where you think he’ll do far worse than an 8- to 10-point improvement over Clinton 2016, if KY of all places isn’t even one of them?
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Badger
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« Reply #14 on: August 04, 2020, 05:49:42 PM »

Okay, other than that crappy SPRY Strategies poll (who?), every Texas poll this last month shows Biden narrowly up. I don't give a flying leap what that campaign staffer of Biden's said about the 27 or so media markets in the state making it too big a Target to handle. Considering how many competitive congressional races there are plus the potential flipping the State House with HUUUUGE redistricting implications for the next decade, why the f*** is his campaign reportedly writing this state off?!?

I have been as bearish as anyone about Texas truly "being there yet", plus not wanting to repeat Hillary's mistake of ignoring the must win states by swinging for a landslide, but maybe it's time to say enough is enough and make a serious play here?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #15 on: August 04, 2020, 05:56:40 PM »

Okay, other than that crappy SPRY Strategies poll (who?), every Texas poll this last month shows Biden narrowly up. I don't give a flying leap what that campaign staffer of Biden's said about the 27 or so media markets in the state making it too big a Target to handle. Considering how many competitive congressional races there are plus the potential flipping the State House with HUUUUGE redistricting implications for the next decade, why the f*** is his campaign reportedly writing this state off?!?

I have been as bearish as anyone about Texas truly "being there yet", plus not wanting to repeat Hillary's mistake of ignoring the must win states by swinging for a landslide, but maybe it's time to say enough is enough and make a serious play here?

They're not

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-campaign-texas-staff-resources/
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morgieb
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« Reply #16 on: August 06, 2020, 01:16:12 AM »

If Trump is up by more than 20 in Kentucky and Alabama, SC swinging so much seems a bit off.

More proof that Texas is a tossup, though.
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Smash255
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« Reply #17 on: August 08, 2020, 09:13:09 PM »

If Trump is up by more than 20 in Kentucky and Alabama, SC swinging so much seems a bit off.

More proof that Texas is a tossup, though.

South Carolina swinging more towards Biden than Kentucky and Alabama does make sense
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #18 on: August 09, 2020, 10:18:14 AM »

I thought Kentucky would be much closer but I'm probably wrong.
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