GA/NC - CBS/YouGov: Biden +4 in NC and +1 in GA

[Progressive Pessimist]

This completely adds up with that national poll that has Trump leading!

[tagimaucia]

Biden has a 20 point lead among 2016 voters who didnt vote

What does that mean, 2016 voters who didn't vote? Like they left the presidential column blank?

I assume the “2016 voters” part is a misnomer or typo and it’s a combination of the above, people who didn’t turn out at all, and 18-21 year olds.  For what it’s worth, according to the 2018 exit poll, 16% of midterm voters didn’t vote for either Clinton or Trump in 2016, and that group went for Democratic house candidates by something like 28 points.

[Hammy]

Biden needs to continue to push hard here, especially for NC.

Can't speak for NC but I'm starting to see a lot more Biden ads over the last few days in Georgia.

[pbrower2a]

NC is once again, thanks to Cooper, a Dem state

NC and GA are joining the sunbelt stack, you could drive from Maine to Florida without leaving it.

South Carolina might cause one to have to detour to westernmost North Carolina where you would take US 19 to head for Atlanta.

[Pericles]

NC is once again, thanks to Cooper, a Dem state

NC and GA are joining the sunbelt stack, you could drive from Maine to Florida without leaving it.

South Carolina might cause one to have to detour to westernmost North Carolina where you would take US 19 to head for Atlanta.

With a bit of luck and given some of the recent polls, maybe a clean trip down the coast is possible.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

By the way this is what I mean about Biden having a 20% lead among people who didn't vote in 2016, but are planning to vote now.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/RonBrownstein/status/1289959722938855426

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump had the Democracy Institute polls and Rassy tracking polls showing him nearing 50, but then polls like this and OH showing him at 44 percent again. He is the Sarah Palin of 2020, whom endorsed Boehner for Speaker in 2010 and Trump over Cruz in 2016, and Trump is gaffe prone like Palin. Both of them backfired

He will lose OH and TX

[Rookie Yinzer]

NC seems reasonable.

GA is way too optimistic. Trump will win it by single digits yes but a very resistant single digits

Shut up.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Good for Trump

[Progressive Pessimist]

NC is once again, thanks to Cooper, a Dem state

NC and GA are joining the sunbelt stack, you could drive from Maine to Florida without leaving it.

South Carolina might cause one to have to detour to westernmost North Carolina where you would take US 19 to head for Atlanta.

With a bit of luck and given some of the recent polls, maybe a clean trip down the coast is possible.

Eh, I wouldn't go that far. This may never happen, as beautiful as it would be. It would take a lot of luck.

[Pericles]

NC is once again, thanks to Cooper, a Dem state

NC and GA are joining the sunbelt stack, you could drive from Maine to Florida without leaving it.

South Carolina might cause one to have to detour to westernmost North Carolina where you would take US 19 to head for Atlanta.

With a bit of luck and given some of the recent polls, maybe a clean trip down the coast is possible.

Eh, I wouldn't go that far. This may never happen, as beautiful as it would be. It would take a lot of luck.

I'm not saying it's likely, but it's possible.

[Adam Griffin]

Biden needs to continue to push hard here, especially for NC.

Can't speak for NC but I'm starting to see a lot more Biden ads over the last few days in Georgia.

In the Chatt media market here: have been seeing Ossoff TV ads for over a month, but have yet to see a Biden ad (and certainly nothing from Warnock or Lieberman; granted I do not watch much television, so maybe they're there now but I've yet to spot one despite seeing plenty of Ossoff primetime pitches).

This isn't particularly unusual given that ~70% of the Chatt media market isn't in GA, but generally "serious" Democratic candidates bite the bullet & do advertise here at least at some point (Carter, Nunn, Abrams all ran ads here - along with Evans in the '18 primary given this was her ancestral home).

Media market-wise, GA simultaneously has an advantage and disadvantage. On one hand, a majority of the state is in one media market. On the other hand, pretty much everybody else is in a media market that significantly overlaps with other states (Columbus, Augusta, Savannah, Albany, Chattanooga all have significant minorities or majorities of their markets out-of-state). Macon is the only other real media market that's wholly contained in-state. Nevertheless, well-funded and credible candidates do generally spend across all of these markets, while the less serious ones focus on Atlanta with a sprinkle of ads in Macon. If Biden is seriously contesting GA, then there should be ads running consistently in all 7 of those MMs I mentioned.

In the end and as far as "Generic State" goes, I think the advantage/disadvantage balances out (i.e. there are plenty of states with multiple mid-sized media markets contained in-state (NC), states with multiple larger markets but a few split-state ones (OH), states with tons of media markets in general (TX), etc) so credible Democratic statewide candidates should be spending in all of them relative to what candidates in many other competitive states have to spend/do.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden needs to continue to push hard here, especially for NC.

Can't speak for NC but I'm starting to see a lot more Biden ads over the last few days in Georgia.

In the Chatt media market here: have been seeing Ossoff TV ads for over a month, but have yet to see a Biden ad (and certainly nothing from Warnock or Lieberman; granted I do not watch much television, so maybe they're there now but I've yet to spot one despite seeing plenty of Ossoff primetime pitches).

On Atlanta TV, I've seen more Perdue ads than anything, also quite a few Ossoff ads.  One Lieberman ad and none from Warnock.  In the Presidential race, I've seen a few Trump ads and one from Biden, but neither of them lately.