GA/NC - CBS/YouGov: Biden +4 in NC and +1 in GA
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  GA/NC - CBS/YouGov: Biden +4 in NC and +1 in GA
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Author Topic: GA/NC - CBS/YouGov: Biden +4 in NC and +1 in GA  (Read 3135 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: August 02, 2020, 09:40:38 AM »

NC:
Biden - 48%
Trump - 44%
Someone else/third party - 2%

GA:
Biden - 46%
Trump - 45%
Someone else/third party - 3%


https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jDu_IMRdUTbdmA-VfpP-neMT3-lYw969/view
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oa8SqHJAq6hBII_8LjgY0PjPwAgBWzpO/view
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Person Man
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« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2020, 09:48:48 AM »

Are these polls De novo, suggest a Biden solidification, or that Trump is beginning to grow on people?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #2 on: August 02, 2020, 09:52:56 AM »

Also:

In the November 2020 Presidential election, if you could choose, would you prefer to vote:

NC:
In person early 41%, in person Election Day 31%, by mail/absentee 28%

GA:
In person early 32%, in person Election Day 33%, by mail/absentee 35%
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2020, 09:53:31 AM »

Are these polls De novo, suggest a Biden solidification, or that Trump is beginning to grow on people?

Current averages:

RCP (does not include these polls):

GA - Trump +2.3
NC - Biden +4.7

538 (does include these polls):

GA - Trump +0.7
NC - Biden +2.2

So overall, these polls were slightly favorable to Biden compared to the current averages, more so in GA than NC.

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Annatar
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« Reply #4 on: August 02, 2020, 09:54:12 AM »

The poll in NC with Biden leading 48/44 is nearly identical to the last CBS/YouGov poll done in NC in 2016 on Oct 26-28 which had Clinton up 48-45, what is different is Trump was up 22% with whites in that poll vs 17% now, but he is only doing 1% worse overall, I would guess due to him not not doing as badly with non-whites.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: August 02, 2020, 09:57:14 AM »

The usual caveats about YouGov and how they aren't that great sometimes, and have an odd R-lean among Indies...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: August 02, 2020, 09:59:31 AM »

Wowzers at Cunningham leading by 9 again.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: August 02, 2020, 10:02:41 AM »

The poll in NC with Biden leading 48/44 is nearly identical to the last CBS/YouGov poll done in NC in 2016 on Oct 26-28 which had Clinton up 48-45, what is different is Trump was up 22% with whites in that poll vs 17% now, but he is only doing 1% worse overall, I would guess due to him not not doing as badly with non-whites.

He has 5% among blacks in the NC poll
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Person Man
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« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2020, 10:09:51 AM »

The poll in NC with Biden leading 48/44 is nearly identical to the last CBS/YouGov poll done in NC in 2016 on Oct 26-28 which had Clinton up 48-45, what is different is Trump was up 22% with whites in that poll vs 17% now, but he is only doing 1% worse overall, I would guess due to him not not doing as badly with non-whites.

He has 5% among blacks in the NC poll

If they expect pocs to “forget” to vote...
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Annatar
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« Reply #9 on: August 02, 2020, 10:10:36 AM »

The poll in NC with Biden leading 48/44 is nearly identical to the last CBS/YouGov poll done in NC in 2016 on Oct 26-28 which had Clinton up 48-45, what is different is Trump was up 22% with whites in that poll vs 17% now, but he is only doing 1% worse overall, I would guess due to him not not doing as badly with non-whites.

He has 5% among blacks in the NC poll

Blacks are not the only non-whites in NC, 10% of NC's electorate is not white or black, as I've said he is doing 5% worse with whites in this poll compared to the Oct 26-28 YouGov poll but only 1% worse overall so he must be doing better with non-whites.
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« Reply #10 on: August 02, 2020, 10:12:50 AM »

I wish more pollsters would put out national numbers with state numbers like CBS/YouGov did last week so we could compare how they have the state voting vs the nation, last week they had Biden +10 nationally with Trump up 1% in Ohio and down 6% in MI so from that it was possible to say Ohio was voting 11% more R than the nation and MI 4% more R.
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American2020
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« Reply #11 on: August 02, 2020, 10:34:44 AM »

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2020, 10:36:09 AM »

These polls contradict the other polls that came out a closer race. Trump is finished
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American2020
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« Reply #13 on: August 02, 2020, 10:45:43 AM »

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Pollster
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« Reply #14 on: August 02, 2020, 12:52:25 PM »

The poll in NC with Biden leading 48/44 is nearly identical to the last CBS/YouGov poll done in NC in 2016 on Oct 26-28 which had Clinton up 48-45, what is different is Trump was up 22% with whites in that poll vs 17% now, but he is only doing 1% worse overall, I would guess due to him not not doing as badly with non-whites.

He has 5% among blacks in the NC poll

Blacks are not the only non-whites in NC, 10% of NC's electorate is not white or black, as I've said he is doing 5% worse with whites in this poll compared to the Oct 26-28 YouGov poll but only 1% worse overall so he must be doing better with non-whites.

The more likely explanations are that this poll’s turnout model is wrong, is of registered voters rather than likely voters, or (most likely) the difference is due to the margin of error.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #15 on: August 02, 2020, 01:27:35 PM »

It's going to take a month to count the votes in GA if even 35% of voters use a mail ballot.

Also obligatory "it's just not there yet"
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #16 on: August 02, 2020, 02:20:52 PM »

Biden has a 20 point lead among 2016 voters who didnt vote
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: August 02, 2020, 02:27:31 PM »

NC is once again, thanks to Cooper, a Dem state
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #18 on: August 02, 2020, 02:27:55 PM »

Seems basically reasonable.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #19 on: August 02, 2020, 02:56:03 PM »

NC seems reasonable.

GA is way too optimistic. Trump will win it by single digits yes but a very resistant single digits
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #20 on: August 02, 2020, 03:03:17 PM »

Biden needs to continue to push hard here, especially for NC.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #21 on: August 02, 2020, 04:07:45 PM »

When you take national voter suppression into account, Trump is actually winning NC & GA by around 6% & 8%

Biden needs to be doing much better than that if he wants a chance of winning these two Wink
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Saruman
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« Reply #22 on: August 02, 2020, 04:11:14 PM »

Consistent with a Biden +7-+8 national lead.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #23 on: August 02, 2020, 05:38:33 PM »

NC is once again, thanks to Cooper, a Dem state

NC and GA are joining the sunbelt stack, you could drive from Maine to Florida without leaving it.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #24 on: August 02, 2020, 06:10:05 PM »

Biden has a 20 point lead among 2016 voters who didnt vote

What does that mean, 2016 voters who didn't vote? Like they left the presidential column blank?
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