Why is no one talking about North Carolina? (NC State House Ratings)

[LimoLiberal]

After a very strong 2018 that saw House Democrats net 10 seats, Republicans hold a 65-55 advantage. Thus, Democrats need to net 5 seats to tie (in which case there would be a power-sharing agreement), or 6 seats for control.

In a 120 seat chamber that doesn't sound all too difficult. Let's look through the key holds and offensive opportunities from a Democratic perspective.

Feedback is always welcome.


Democratic holds:


HD-24 (Wilson): D incumbent Jean Farmer-Butterfield won 51-49 against an independent in 2018, but this district was Clinton +5 and Farmer-Butterfield may have suffered from low black turnout, especially with no big statewide race. Farmer-Butterfield unexpectedly resigned earlier this year, and Democrats chose Democratic Party official Linda Cooper-Suggs to face off against Republican Mick Rankin. Cooper-Suggs hasn't filed her financial disclosure yet, but Rankin has raised about 8K and has 6K on hand. I'll call this race Tilt D just because Biden is likely to win this district in November.

HD-25 (Rocky Mount): D incumbent James Gailliard flipped this open district 52-45 in 2018.  He's facing R John Check, who's raised 44K and has 29K on hand. Gaillard has raised just 11K and has 6K on hand. However, Clinton carried this district 53-46, Biden is very likely to win it, and Gailliard is an incumbent so I'll mark this as Lean D, with the fundraising disparity a little worrying.

HD-35 (Wake Forest/NE Wake County): D incumbent Terence Everitt easily defeated an incumbent Republican in 2018 in this Trump +0.50 suburban seat. Everitt has raised 121K this cycle and has 96K on hand while his R opponent, Fred Von Canon, raised 55K and 43K on hand. There's no question that Biden will win this seat, so I mark Everitt as a pretty heavy favorite with his deep pockets. Likely D.

HD-41 (Holly Springs/Southern Wake County): D incumbent flipped this open seat 50-48 in 2018. I do believe the court redistricting screwed her a little tho I can't find the prez numbers from before, however, her new district voted for Trump 51-45. This is a district that Biden could win but I think this race will be close regardless - especially with her Republican opponent Erin Pare raising 87K with 66K on hand. Batch, to her credit, is a powerhouse and raised 229K this quarter with more than 300K on hand! Batch needs to watch out though, a quick look through Pare's bio and she has military cred, a PTA mom, a small business owner, multiple degrees with a strong community focus... very reminiscent of a Sarah Davis or Meagan Hanson type (she lost but still). Still, it might just be the wrong year for Pare with Trump collapsing in this type of district. I'll mark this one as Tilt D.


HD-43 (Eastern Fayetteville): This district changed pretty radically in redistricting and incumbent D Elmer Floyd was defeated in the primary by social worker Kimberly Hardy. This district voted for Trump 50-48. D Kimberly Hardy hasn't even filed her second quarter papers and was subsequently fined $500... R Diane Wheatley raised 10K in the second quarter but has just 2K on hand with a 30K loan. Biden will probably win this district, but fundraising doesn't really tell us much here with both candidates lacking. Tossup for the moment.

HD-47 (Robeson): Trump won this district by 7 points in 2016 but incumbent D Charles Graham held on 59-41 in 2018 in a district only slightly different from the post-redistricting version. His opponent this year, Olivia Oxendine, has raised less than 2K and has less than 1K on hand. Graham raised 6K and has 6K on hand. Graham clearly has the edge considering his performance in 2018 but Robeson is shifting away from Democrats fast so I wouldn't rule out a closer race than expected... I'll call it Lean D.

HD-66 (Rockingham and Troy): Trump +18. D incumbent Ken Goodman won 51-47 in 2018 before being appointed to a state board in 2019. Democrat Scott Brewer is trying to keep this seat in Democratic hands, and raised 25K with 40K on hand, but faces a steep challenge from Republican Ben Moss, who has raised 5K but has just 2K on hand. This race is Lean R with a double-digit Trump victory probably too big to overcome for Brewer, who has never faced voters.

HD-93 (Boone and Jefferson): D Ray Russell flipped this Appalachian State seat 52-48 in 2018, defeating incumbent Jonathan Jordan. This seat voted for Trump 55-42 in 2016 and will almost certainly do so again, and Democrats might be hurt by low turnout at Appalachian State (I am not dedicated enough to look up their reopening plans). Russell has raised 93K and has 100K on hand while his opponent Ray Pickett has raised 6K and has 10K on hand. Tilt D due to the fundraising disparity for now.

HD-98 (Huntersville/Northern Mecklenburg County): D Christy Clark upset incumbent John Bradford by 1 point to flip this seat in 2018. She faces him again in November in a seat Trump won 52-44. Clark raised 172K in the 2nd quarter and has 200K on hand, while Bradford raised 60K and has 130K on hand. This suburban district will shift left in November, but Trump won it by 8 and another Trump win may be too difficult for Clark to overcome. Pure Tossup.

HD-119 (Sylva and Cherokee): This Appalachian district voted for Trump 55-41 in 2016 and has done a little Frank Guinta and Carol Shea-Porter jiggy with Democrat Joe Sam Queen winning in 2014, losing in 2016 to Republican Mike Clampitt by 300 votes, and then beating Clampitt 52-48 in 2018. Unsurprisingly, Clampitt is continuing the volley and is running again with the hope that a likely Trump win in this district puts him over the top again. Clampitt raised 6K in Q2 and finished with just 6K on hand while Sam Queen raised 97K and has more than 100K on hand. The fundraising disparity and residual down-ballot Democratic strength makes me mark this district Tilt D, although a big Trump win could put Clampitt over the top... again.

Offensive opportunities:

Will be done tomorrow!

[StateBoiler]

Farmer-Butterfield based on the name is probably related somehow to U.S. representative for northeastern N.C. G.K. Butterfield.

I used to live in Rocky Mount. Based on Clinton winning by that margin, I presume it incorporates a lot of the black side of the city.

Rockingham I imagine it's going Republican. Sort of an outer Fayetteville seat.

App not being in session will play a role in Boone, it's a classic college town as far as how the economy functions in the summer. But a bunch of artsy-fartsies have moved in to the Mountains the past couple decades, with Asheville being a prime example. Created a mini-housing crisis out there in fact.

Shouldn't draw too much from presidential elections and portraying it down ballot. North Carolina for 20 or so years was defined by voting Republican federally and Democrat down ballot.

[Mr.Phips]

If Dems were to miraculously win control of both chambers here, they need to pass independent redistricting to guard against being locked out of the process again based on a bad year (like 2010).

[StateBoiler]

If Dems were to miraculously win control of both chambers here, they need to pass independent redistricting to guard against being locked out of the process again based on a bad year (like 2010).

They won't. I was born in North Carolina in 1982 and lived there until 2013. The North Carolina Democratic Party is an entirely corrupt organization full of Easleys, Meg Scott Phippses, Bev Perdues, and John Edwardses. They had control of the state legislature for decades upon decades.

Their problem with Republican redistricting is not the actual gerrymandering the Republicans do, it's that the Republicans had the power in the legislature and they did not. If they ever actually got rid of gerrymandering, the black Democrats in the state would raise a fit and start calling people racist, because majority-minority districts are by definition gerrymanders because you are superconcentrating Democrats in a few districts, which cause and effect means all the other "normal" districts in the state are going to be more Republican.

North Carolina politics in a nutshell: the Democrats are corrupt and the Republicans are morons.

[Mr.Phips]

If Dems were to miraculously win control of both chambers here, they need to pass independent redistricting to guard against being locked out of the process again based on a bad year (like 2010).

They won't. I was born in North Carolina in 1982 and live there until 2012. The North Carolina Democratic Party is an entirely corrupt organization full of Easleys, Meg Scott Phippses, Bev Perdues, and John Edwardses. They had control of the state legislature for decades upon decades. Their problem with Republican redistricting is not the actual gerrymandering the Republicans do, it's that the Republicans had the power in the legislature and they did not.

North Carolina politics in a nutshell: the Democrats are corrupt and the Republicans are morons.

Did they ignore the polls in early 2010 that said they were going to lose control of the legislature that year?  You would have think if they had any brains they would have passed independent redistricting then before they lost control.

[Non Swing Voter]

If Dems were to miraculously win control of both chambers here, they need to pass independent redistricting to guard against being locked out of the process again based on a bad year (like 2010).

They won't. I was born in North Carolina in 1982 and lived there until 2013. The North Carolina Democratic Party is an entirely corrupt organization full of Easleys, Meg Scott Phippses, Bev Perdues, and John Edwardses. They had control of the state legislature for decades upon decades.

Their problem with Republican redistricting is not the actual gerrymandering the Republicans do, it's that the Republicans had the power in the legislature and they did not. If they ever actually got rid of gerrymandering, the black Democrats in the state would raise a fit and start calling people racist, because majority-minority districts are by definition gerrymanders because you are superconcentrating Democrats in a few districts, which cause and effect means all the other "normal" districts in the state are going to be more Republican.

North Carolina politics in a nutshell: the Democrats are corrupt and the Republicans are morons.

sounds highly dysfunctional.

[Orser67]

Lou Jacobson of Cook Political Report recently shifted the state house from Likely R to Lean R (joining the state senate). Crossing my fingers we'll get at least one chamber here and be able to prevent Republican gerrymanders.

[S019]

Lou Jacobson of Cook Political Report recently shifted the state house from Likely R to Lean R (joining the state senate). Crossing my fingers we'll get at least one chamber here and be able to prevent Republican gerrymanders.

If an R gerrymander is drawn, the Democrats will probably file suit and send the map to the NC Supreme Court which would draw a D leaning, but still overall fair map. If Democrats flip both chambers, then they would be able to draw their own gerrymander, but any R gerrymander will not get past the NC Supreme Court.

[Orser67]

Lou Jacobson of Cook Political Report recently shifted the state house from Likely R to Lean R (joining the state senate). Crossing my fingers we'll get at least one chamber here and be able to prevent Republican gerrymanders.

If an R gerrymander is drawn, the Democrats will probably file suit and send the map to the NC Supreme Court which would draw a D leaning, but still overall fair map. If Democrats flip both chambers, then they would be able to draw their own gerrymander, but any R gerrymander will not get past the NC Supreme Court.

That's a good point, but I would still think that it would be better to have a seat at the table than to have to rely on the supreme court to strike down a Republican gerrymander, since the court might refrain from striking down a relatively light R gerrymander (e.g. some on the left have argued that the new maps in NC aren't entirely fair).

Also, I would hope that the NC supreme court would also strike down a D gerrymander, especially one that's particularly egregious. I know some people view the courts as just another political body, but imo they have a duty to at least attempt to be impartial.

[Sol]

Farmer-Butterfield based on the name is probably related somehow to U.S. representative for northeastern N.C. G.K. Butterfield.

They are were married.

App not being in session will play a role in Boone, it's a classic college town as far as how the economy functions in the summer. But a bunch of artsy-fartsies have moved in to the Mountains the past couple decades, with Asheville being a prime example. Created a mini-housing crisis out there in fact.

I'm from Boone originally. App is reopening I believe though I'm sure lots of students will be online. That said a lot of students live off campus and some might prefer to stay in their apartments with friends than in their hometowns.

Russell is probably a bit disadvantaged with that dynamic, but he does have something of a built in advantage; he's universally known in NW NC due to his weather website, RaysWeather.com, which has had a large following for many years due to its accuracy and specificity to the region (the High Country is split between media markets and the news usually focuses on the dramatically different weather patterns in the lowland cities). Russell was helped by 2018 but due to being well known and well respected he probably could have won most other years.

The Republicans have nominated a Republican from Blowing Rock which may be a slight problem for them too. Former incumbent Jonathan Jordan was from Ashe County and was very explicit about looking out for that part of the districts' interests--whereas Blowing Rock is a rich community on the southern fringe of Watauga County.

Anyway, fwiw, the NC Senate probably has a better chance of flipping.