Margins candidates need for states to be called at each time

[Plankton5165]

Do you know what margins a winner needs for a state to be called at certain times?

[mileslunn]

It depends, there isn't a fixed rule.  Rather what is done is they look at where the votes are coming from as opposed to margin.  If the one party is tied but all the outstanding vote is from an area they are strong in, they will call it for them.  By contrast if one party has a big lead, but outstanding vote is from an area that votes for other party usually they won't.  So its more of vote reporting, what are trends compared to past elections and of areas not reporting, how do they usually vote. 

Essentially they use simulations entering data into computer and based on simulations, when odds of other side winning are close to zero they call it.

[Roll Roons]

In general, I think if the exit polls show one candidate up by double digits, networks will call a state at poll closing. Despite their total incompetence in election administration, it's probably fair to say that California and New York will be instantly called for Biden.

If it's a margin of 5 points or less, I feel like they'll usually wait until over 90% of the vote has been counted, even if one candidate is leading the whole time. That's when they ended up calling Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for Trump.

[mileslunn]

In general, I think if the exit polls show one candidate up by double digits, networks will call a state at poll closing. Despite their total incompetence in election administration, it's probably fair to say that California and New York will be instantly called for Biden.

If it's a margin of 5 points or less, I feel like they'll usually wait until over 90% of the vote has been counted, even if one candidate is leading the whole time. That's when they ended up calling Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for Trump.

Also depends on what is outstanding.  In 2012, they called Ohio when Obama had only 3,000 vote lead and still 20% to come.  Reason for that is almost all the outstanding vote was in Cuyahoga County which they know votes heavily Democrat.  Karl Rove didn't understand this so tried to get Fox News to retract their call, but when Megyn Kelly went back to decision desk room, the person making the calls explained why it was correct call.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Are we even getting exit polls this time? Given that maybe a half or more of all votes will be done at home how accurate can we assume exit polls will be?

[Hammy]

The more interesting factor is what the procedure is going to be if we end up with a lot of mail votes, and thus potentially unreliable exit polls--and that's if covid doesn't stop them from doing exit polls in the first place.

[Ferguson97]

The more interesting factor is what the procedure is going to be if we end up with a lot of mail votes, and thus potentially unreliable exit polls--and that's if covid doesn't stop them from doing exit polls in the first place.

Yeah, I think the partisan divide between VBM and in-person voting will make exit polls unreliable

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The only way I will even look at exit polls is if they call voters at home of those who vote by mail to get their input otherwise don't bother with exit polls this year lol.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Despite their total incompetence in election administration, it's probably fair to say that California and New York will be instantly called for Biden.

Lol at the unnecessary dig

[Gass3268]

The only way I will even look at exit polls is if they call voters at home of those who vote by mail to get their input otherwise don't bother with exit polls this year lol.

They have been doing that for years for now. There would be no way to do exit polls in many states (AZ, CA, CO, FL, NC, OR, UT, WA, etc.) without taking into account.