NY-01 2020: Lee Zeldin vs. Nancy Goroff: Who wins?

[Suburbia]

NY-01 is a swing blue-collar and upper-middle class mixed district. Trumper Rep. Lee Zeldin is facing off against Democratic challenger Nancy Goroff.

Who wins?

https://twitter.com/leezeldin/status/1287786747531800576

https://twitter.com/leezeldin/status/1287470604149501953

[TML]

You do realize that this year the Democratic nominee is a different individual, right?

[xavier110]

Yeah, the Dem is Goroff, not Gershon. Gershon lost general in 2018 and did not advance this year.

I grew up in this district, and it's a hard nut to crack. A lot going on and it's somewhat representative of a lot of trends in America. Almost no one who grows up there stays there (I left), those who do are in all likelihood not doing well because there aren't great jobs to be found (you move to NYC or Boston for real opportunities) and those folks can be Trumpy for that reason (aggrieved WWC); those who live there permanently as retirees are often SUPER rich creating a crazy class stratification/income inequality situation that is insane when observing the juxtaposition of houses and streets from one community to the next; and those uber rich people often depend on exploited undocumented labor to perform essential tasks -- and those folks are the target of the WWC's ire.

In total, a lot going on and you can see why Trump still holds up OK here. I don't know how you go from the very liberal Tim Bishop to Lee Zeldin though and it all comes down to how much the swingy, middle class vote here breaks against Trump. I figure it's enough to make this a 50/50 race.

[Suburbia]

You do realize that this year the Democratic nominee is a different individual, right?

Thank you for telling me.

[Tekken_Guy]

Zeldin will probably still win. He’s quite popular in the district and I don’t think Goroff really appeals that much to the area.

[NewYorkExpress]

Zeldin's a narrow favorite, but like NY-2 this district likely will be a tossup, especially if Biden wins it.

[Suburbia]

Lean R

[Xing]

I’d say Likely R.

[Storr]

I'd love to see Zeldin lose, but I would say he probably wins reelection. Though it's not out of the realm of reasonable possibility, especially with his well known Trumpiness which might sink him in a disastrous Trump loss. I don't feel there are going to be many Biden - Zeldin voters, he's not someone who's tried to brand himself as a "hardworking hero" (like King in neighboring NY-02) Republican.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lean R, but Zeldin’s not the unbeatable Titan some make him out to be.

[Gracile]

Likely R, much less likely to flip than NY-02 based on its profile.

[Epaminondas]

Yeah, the Dem is Goroff, not Gershon. Gershon lost general in 2018 and did not advance this year.

I grew up in this district, and it's a hard nut to crack. A lot going on and it's somewhat representative of a lot of trends in America. Almost no one who grows up there stays there (I left), those who do are in all likelihood not doing well because there aren't great jobs to be found (you move to NYC or Boston for real opportunities) and those folks can be Trumpy for that reason (aggrieved WWC); those who live there permanently as retirees are often SUPER rich creating a crazy class stratification/income inequality situation that is insane when observing the juxtaposition of houses and streets from one community to the next; and those uber rich people often depend on exploited undocumented labor to perform essential tasks -- and those folks are the target of the WWC's ire.

In total, a lot going on and you can see why Trump still holds up OK here. I don't know how you go from the very liberal Tim Bishop to Lee Zeldin though and it all comes down to how much the swingy, middle class vote here breaks against Trump. I figure it's enough to make this a 50/50 race.

Very interesting, thanks for sharing your experience! That is the sort of detailed info I love on Atlas, rather than the recent spate of poll trolling.

Would you say the same dynamics are at play in neighbouring NY-2?

[Smash255]

Yeah, the Dem is Goroff, not Gershon. Gershon lost general in 2018 and did not advance this year.

I grew up in this district, and it's a hard nut to crack. A lot going on and it's somewhat representative of a lot of trends in America. Almost no one who grows up there stays there (I left), those who do are in all likelihood not doing well because there aren't great jobs to be found (you move to NYC or Boston for real opportunities) and those folks can be Trumpy for that reason (aggrieved WWC); those who live there permanently as retirees are often SUPER rich creating a crazy class stratification/income inequality situation that is insane when observing the juxtaposition of houses and streets from one community to the next; and those uber rich people often depend on exploited undocumented labor to perform essential tasks -- and those folks are the target of the WWC's ire.

In total, a lot going on and you can see why Trump still holds up OK here. I don't know how you go from the very liberal Tim Bishop to Lee Zeldin though and it all comes down to how much the swingy, middle class vote here breaks against Trump. I figure it's enough to make this a 50/50 race.

Very interesting, thanks for sharing your experience! That is the sort of detailed info I love on Atlas, rather than the recent spate of poll trolling.

Would you say the same dynamics are at play in neighbouring NY-2?

I live in NY-2 (though the Nassau side of it & can literally walk to NY-3).  I would say the dynamics are similar to NY-1, though NY-2 with a few exceptions is more uniformly middle class

[TML]

Zeldin is favored by default, but a Goroff upset is well within the realm of possibility.

[WD]

NY-01 will definitely be one of the harder seats (of those that are competitive) for Dems to flip

[xavier110]

Yeah, the Dem is Goroff, not Gershon. Gershon lost general in 2018 and did not advance this year.

I grew up in this district, and it's a hard nut to crack. A lot going on and it's somewhat representative of a lot of trends in America. Almost no one who grows up there stays there (I left), those who do are in all likelihood not doing well because there aren't great jobs to be found (you move to NYC or Boston for real opportunities) and those folks can be Trumpy for that reason (aggrieved WWC); those who live there permanently as retirees are often SUPER rich creating a crazy class stratification/income inequality situation that is insane when observing the juxtaposition of houses and streets from one community to the next; and those uber rich people often depend on exploited undocumented labor to perform essential tasks -- and those folks are the target of the WWC's ire.

In total, a lot going on and you can see why Trump still holds up OK here. I don't know how you go from the very liberal Tim Bishop to Lee Zeldin though and it all comes down to how much the swingy, middle class vote here breaks against Trump. I figure it's enough to make this a 50/50 race.

Very interesting, thanks for sharing your experience! That is the sort of detailed info I love on Atlas, rather than the recent spate of poll trolling.

Would you say the same dynamics are at play in neighbouring NY-2?

As Smash255 said, NY-02 is more uniformly middle class. That may work to Biden/Dem advantage given recent trends.

As for NY-01 there are few districts in America entirely like it. It includes one of the greatest concentrations of wealth in the world in the Hamptons.

In Southampton there used to be a 7-11 (a convenience store) that put up several portapotties outside because throngs (literally masses of people) would line up outside to get day labor work. Every day getting your morning coffee looked like you were entering some protest or rally. You can imagine the spillover effects of that type of thing... the middle class families feel threatened, the upper class folks take advantage of the day laborers, the day laborers are just trying to survive.

[SnowLabrador]

Zeldin.

[Smash255]

I wonder if I ever crossed paths with Goroff at Stony Brook.

[Badger]

Is goroff really that strong a candidate? That's not my gut impression, fwiw.

Not sure how strong the Democratic bench is here, but again my gut is telling me that zeldin will survive barring an entirely possible complete Trump collapse that drags him down with it.

[Suburbia]

Safe R.

This part of LI is copland.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I think this is a potential flip but I think Zeldin probably narrowly wins. I know bronz is trolling but it's a big police district and "law and order" probably appeals here.

[Lookout]

Zeldin's chances are very high. I'm from the district, Goroff's entire platform is science and Coronavirus. I don't think that will be enough to put her over the top, I wouldn't be surprised if she loses by a wider margin than Gershon. He at least framed himself as a business leader, she's a professor. Not a lot of WWC types are going to be endeared to that.

Yeah, the Dem is Goroff, not Gershon. Gershon lost general in 2018 and did not advance this year.

I grew up in this district, and it's a hard nut to crack. A lot going on and it's somewhat representative of a lot of trends in America. Almost no one who grows up there stays there (I left), those who do are in all likelihood not doing well because there aren't great jobs to be found (you move to NYC or Boston for real opportunities) and those folks can be Trumpy for that reason (aggrieved WWC); those who live there permanently as retirees are often SUPER rich creating a crazy class stratification/income inequality situation that is insane when observing the juxtaposition of houses and streets from one community to the next; and those uber rich people often depend on exploited undocumented labor to perform essential tasks -- and those folks are the target of the WWC's ire.

In total, a lot going on and you can see why Trump still holds up OK here. I don't know how you go from the very liberal Tim Bishop to Lee Zeldin though and it all comes down to how much the swingy, middle class vote here breaks against Trump. I figure it's enough to make this a 50/50 race.

Very interesting, thanks for sharing your experience! That is the sort of detailed info I love on Atlas, rather than the recent spate of poll trolling.

Would you say the same dynamics are at play in neighbouring NY-2?

NY-2 has a much bigger WWC than NY-1; it's population density is also much greater. There are communities within the district that are known for being crime-ridden, and that perception helps play into the pro-police rhetoric the GOP has been pushing. A lot of those undocumented workers live on the NY-2 side of the border between it and NY-1, so there are more aggrieved WWC voters. There's a North-South Shore divide on Long Island with more of the expat NYC WWC having moved to the South shore/middle of the island while the North shore is wealthier (generally). NY-1 is also much more rural than NY-2, so the economy and the mindsets are a bit different. NY-2's economy relies a lot on small businesses dotted along the villages on the Great South Bay, and its proximity to Queens, along with Fire island, makes it a popular tourist destination. Local politicians (I've met a few) joke about the "Republocrat" nature of the district, and Congressman King has been true to that nature. Speaking of, Peter King has been in office for some 30 odd years so the likelihood the GOP retains the seat is pretty fair. It really depends on how heavy the swing is in regard to Trump, since he's the face of the Republican party at the moment.