NH senate safe D?

[Lognog]

A poll had Jeanne Shaheen up 19 points against both of her possible opponents from a UNH poll (B- on 538)

[Holmes]

Yes. New Hampshire women are pissed.

[President Johnson]

Pretty much, since Republicans failed to recruit a strong candidate. Sununu would have given Shaheen a run, but he declined. He probably would have lost, but made it closer than it's going to be now. He may eye 2022 against Maggie Hassan in a Biden midterm. This and potentially Nevada will be the only competitive seats Democrats have to defend that year. Not sure about Arizona since Mark Kelly proves to be very strong and Doug Ducey's numbers started tanking lately.

[Roll Roons]

Memes aside, I'd call it Safe D. Shaheen's opponents are pretty unknown and it doesn't seem like either party is spending much on this race.

Though in a Biden midterm, Hassan's seat may well be the top GOP pickup opportunity if Sununu runs.

[MT Treasurer]

Any Republican running in a federal race in this state was going to face an uphill battle + it’s even worse when they have to run against someone like Shaheen, so this isn’t surprising at all.

Sununu wouldn’t have beaten her either, and he was smart to stay out of the race.

[S019]

This race was Safe D, the minute that Ayotte and Sununu decided to stay out

[SnowLabrador]

This race was Safe D, the minute that Ayotte and Sununu decided to stay out

[MT Treasurer]

Colorado Corky, Bolduc, and the other Rs running have zero chance against Shaheen. And the fact that Ayotte lost to the comparatively less established Maggie Hassan in a year where Donald Trump won the EC and came very close to winning NH says a lot, especially when Trump's approvals in NH are abysmal and Shaheen is one of the most well-known political figures in the state right now.

This is why PVI can be misleading. NH pretty clearly has a strong/stubborn Democratic lean, but Democratic trends + lopsided margins in TX/CA/NY/IL/NJ/etc. make it appear more competitive than it actually is. Treating it as a hyper-competitive 50-50 state is pretty silly.

[Xing]

It’s a strong Likely D at the very least, and unless things get a lot better for Republicans, Shaheen will probably win pretty easily.

[W]

Yeah, I was thinking that when I saw the poll. The Republicans did a horrible job with recruitment plus COVID so this was pretty much an inevitability.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lewandowski dropped out and said that he rather run Trump's reelection team than run for Senate, NH isnt a makr or break state anyways

[ProgressiveModerate]

Very very close, butI'll still keep it at likely out of caution. If an R is able to develop their name across NH, which is  a small state, and trump does well nationally, it's possible she loses, but very unlikely at this point

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Pretty much, since Republicans failed to recruit a strong candidate. Sununu would have given Shaheen a run, but he declined. He probably would have lost, but made it closer than it's going to be now. He may eye 2022 against Maggie Hassan in a Biden midterm. This and potentially Nevada will be the only competitive seats Democrats have to defend that year. Not sure about Arizona since Mark Kelly proves to be very strong and Doug Ducey's numbers started tanking lately.

You’re forgetting Arizona despite the weak Republuc bench is still going to be tough in a Biden midterm. Larry Hogan would instantly force the DSCC to take Maryland seriously, and I think Van Hollen would win in the end, but it would be hard. Colorado has no Republican bench to speak of after Gardner loses this year, but a self funder could put it in play. Then there’s Georgia if Warnock gets his act to get her this year and pulls off a win in the runoff.

NH concerns me the most of those potential six for sure, though.

[WD]

Pretty much, since Republicans failed to recruit a strong candidate. Sununu would have given Shaheen a run, but he declined. He probably would have lost, but made it closer than it's going to be now. He may eye 2022 against Maggie Hassan in a Biden midterm. This and potentially Nevada will be the only competitive seats Democrats have to defend that year. Not sure about Arizona since Mark Kelly proves to be very strong and Doug Ducey's numbers started tanking lately.

You’re forgetting Arizona despite the weak Republuc bench is still going to be tough in a Biden midterm. Larry Hogan would instantly force the DSCC to take Maryland seriously, and I think Van Hollen would win in the end, but it would be hard. Colorado has no Republican bench to speak of after Gardner loses this year, but a self funder could put it in play. Then there’s Georgia if Warnock gets his act to get her this year and pulls off a win in the runoff.

NH concerns me the most of those potential six for sure, though.

Maryland won’t be competitive even with Hogan. It’ll be TN-Sen 2018 all over again, maybe he’ll hold Van Hollen under 60% but I don’t see him getting within 10 points. Maybe a 54-43 loss at best.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Pretty much, since Republicans failed to recruit a strong candidate. Sununu would have given Shaheen a run, but he declined. He probably would have lost, but made it closer than it's going to be now. He may eye 2022 against Maggie Hassan in a Biden midterm. This and potentially Nevada will be the only competitive seats Democrats have to defend that year. Not sure about Arizona since Mark Kelly proves to be very strong and Doug Ducey's numbers started tanking lately.

You’re forgetting Arizona despite the weak Republuc bench is still going to be tough in a Biden midterm. Larry Hogan would instantly force the DSCC to take Maryland seriously, and I think Van Hollen would win in the end, but it would be hard. Colorado has no Republican bench to speak of after Gardner loses this year, but a self funder could put it in play. Then there’s Georgia if Warnock gets his act to get her this year and pulls off a win in the runoff.

NH concerns me the most of those potential six for sure, though.

Maryland won’t be competitive even with Hogan. It’ll be TN-Sen 2018 all over again, maybe he’ll hold Van Hollen under 60% but I don’t see him getting within 10 points. Maybe a 54-43 loss at best.

Hogan led Van Hollen by 10 points last fall, even before he got more popular with his COVID handling. This is not a potential race to be taken lightly. Blue states love their “moderate” Republicans. I think Van Hollen would ultimately end up winning, but it would be close.

[YE]

Pretty much, since Republicans failed to recruit a strong candidate. Sununu would have given Shaheen a run, but he declined. He probably would have lost, but made it closer than it's going to be now. He may eye 2022 against Maggie Hassan in a Biden midterm. This and potentially Nevada will be the only competitive seats Democrats have to defend that year. Not sure about Arizona since Mark Kelly proves to be very strong and Doug Ducey's numbers started tanking lately.

You’re forgetting Arizona despite the weak Republuc bench is still going to be tough in a Biden midterm. Larry Hogan would instantly force the DSCC to take Maryland seriously, and I think Van Hollen would win in the end, but it would be hard. Colorado has no Republican bench to speak of after Gardner loses this year, but a self funder could put it in play. Then there’s Georgia if Warnock gets his act to get her this year and pulls off a win in the runoff.

NH concerns me the most of those potential six for sure, though.

Maryland won’t be competitive even with Hogan. It’ll be TN-Sen 2018 all over again, maybe he’ll hold Van Hollen under 60% but I don’t see him getting within 10 points. Maybe a 54-43 loss at best.

Hogan led Van Hollen by 10 points last fall, even before he got more popular with his COVID handling. This is not a potential race to be taken lightly. Blue states love their “moderate” Republicans. I think Van Hollen would ultimately end up winning, but it would be close.

Hogan seems to have his eyes set on 2024. I'd be surprised if he risks what would basically turn into HI Sen 2012 2.0 by running for Senate.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Pretty much, since Republicans failed to recruit a strong candidate. Sununu would have given Shaheen a run, but he declined. He probably would have lost, but made it closer than it's going to be now. He may eye 2022 against Maggie Hassan in a Biden midterm. This and potentially Nevada will be the only competitive seats Democrats have to defend that year. Not sure about Arizona since Mark Kelly proves to be very strong and Doug Ducey's numbers started tanking lately.

You’re forgetting Arizona despite the weak Republuc bench is still going to be tough in a Biden midterm. Larry Hogan would instantly force the DSCC to take Maryland seriously, and I think Van Hollen would win in the end, but it would be hard. Colorado has no Republican bench to speak of after Gardner loses this year, but a self funder could put it in play. Then there’s Georgia if Warnock gets his act to get her this year and pulls off a win in the runoff.

NH concerns me the most of those potential six for sure, though.

Maryland won’t be competitive even with Hogan. It’ll be TN-Sen 2018 all over again, maybe he’ll hold Van Hollen under 60% but I don’t see him getting within 10 points. Maybe a 54-43 loss at best.

Hogan led Van Hollen by 10 points last fall, even before he got more popular with his COVID handling. This is not a potential race to be taken lightly. Blue states love their “moderate” Republicans. I think Van Hollen would ultimately end up winning, but it would be close.

Hogan seems to have his eyes set on 2024. I'd be surprised if he risks what would basically turn into HI Sen 2012 2.0 by running for Senate.

People forget that Lingle left office in 2010 with approvals in the forties. She wasn’t the popular juggernaut she was in 2006. That’s the difference between her and Hogan, plus the fact that 2022 isn’t a Presidential year.

Hopefully you’re right though and Hogan does have delusions of grandeur and runs a pointless presidential campaign instead to save us the headache of having to spend big in Maryland.

[WD]

Pretty much, since Republicans failed to recruit a strong candidate. Sununu would have given Shaheen a run, but he declined. He probably would have lost, but made it closer than it's going to be now. He may eye 2022 against Maggie Hassan in a Biden midterm. This and potentially Nevada will be the only competitive seats Democrats have to defend that year. Not sure about Arizona since Mark Kelly proves to be very strong and Doug Ducey's numbers started tanking lately.

You’re forgetting Arizona despite the weak Republuc bench is still going to be tough in a Biden midterm. Larry Hogan would instantly force the DSCC to take Maryland seriously, and I think Van Hollen would win in the end, but it would be hard. Colorado has no Republican bench to speak of after Gardner loses this year, but a self funder could put it in play. Then there’s Georgia if Warnock gets his act to get her this year and pulls off a win in the runoff.

NH concerns me the most of those potential six for sure, though.

Maryland won’t be competitive even with Hogan. It’ll be TN-Sen 2018 all over again, maybe he’ll hold Van Hollen under 60% but I don’t see him getting within 10 points. Maybe a 54-43 loss at best.

Hogan led Van Hollen by 10 points last fall, even before he got more popular with his COVID handling. This is not a potential race to be taken lightly. Blue states love their “moderate” Republicans. I think Van Hollen would ultimately end up winning, but it would be close.

Hogan seems to have his eyes set on 2024. I'd be surprised if he risks what would basically turn into HI Sen 2012 2.0 by running for Senate.

People forget that Lingle left office in 2010 with approvals in the forties. She wasn’t the popular juggernaut she was in 2006. That’s the difference between her and Hogan, plus the fact that 2022 isn’t a Presidential year.

Hopefully you’re right though and Hogan does have delusions of grandeur and runs a pointless presidential campaign instead to save us the headache of having to spend big in Maryland.

I’m not quite convinced. Once Democrats run ads saying Hogan will be another vote for McConnell his approvals will fall. After 2018, I’m skeptical about Governors winning in states hostile to their national party.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Yep. Corky has all the residency issues of Scott Brown without the moderate track record.

[Nyvin]

Colorado Corky (Messner) apparently thinks Chinese students in the US shouldn't be allowed to study computer science, physics, or chemistry, and should only learn "Liberty and Freedom"

https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-students-banned-from-science-learning-bryant-messner-2020-7

Messner is the candidate that Trump endorsed.

[here2view]

It's absolutely Safe D considering the environment and Republican candidates running.

Sununu and Ayotte both would have lost this year, although Sununu would have been closer.

[chubbygummy]

Shaheen wins.