GA-Monmouth: Tied

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1288489772189712386?s=20

[Devils30]

Pretty GOP friendly sample too if you ask me.

[SaneDemocrat]

Meh for Biden in a sense that you'd expect him to be up by a couple of points. Meh for Trump in that its still Georgia.

[Bidenworth2020]

This poll topline just don't add up to me. Women and men each vote for Biden and Trump by equal margins (and more women vote than men, especially in the south), yet it comes out as a tie. Biden's also winning 96% of democrats and independents 53/31. He is matching Abrams with blacks and improving on her margin by 8 points with whites.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Sounds reasonable.

[Tender Branson]

How should this be added to the database ?

The RV results ?

Or a mix of the LV samples ? 48.5-46.5 for Trump ?

[FlyoverCoast]

Pretty GOP friendly sample too if you ask me.

For Reference

2016 Exit Polls:

36% Republican
30% Independent
34% Democrat

Monmouth Sample after weighting (change from 2016)
38% Republican (+2)
33% Independent (+3)
28% Democrat (-6)

[WD]

Pretty GOP friendly sample too if you ask me.

For Reference

2016 Exit Polls:

36% Republican
30% Independent
34% Democrat

Monmouth Sample after weighting (change from 2016)
38% Republican (+2)
33% Independent (+3)
28% Democrat (-6)

Yeah this poll is definitely off a bit.

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Georgia President by Monmouth University on 2020-07-27

Summary: D: 47%, R: 47%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

How should this be added to the database ?

The RV results ?

Or a mix of the LV samples ? 48.5-46.5 for Trump ?

Entered the poll for RV only.

The release didn't even mention the number (n) for the 2 LV models ...

Even the RV sample only had 400 people ... WTF ?

[Devils30]

These southern, diverse places are becoming a polling nightmare. Would not be shocked if Biden underperforms polling in midwest and beats his numbers in GA, AZ, TX.

[wbrocks67]

Pretty GOP friendly sample too if you ask me.

Yeah, I don't buy this one. I'll wait for other polls. There's a lot of warning signs here for me that it's too GOP-friendly:

Trump's favorable being in the positives
"likely voter" high turn out model favoring Trump, despite what we saw in the primary
Kemp's favorable being nearly +10
Loeffler leading the special
Perdue being 6 above Ossoff

nearly none of these things have borne out in any other recent GA polls so I'll take it with a grain of salt

[wbrocks67]

Pretty GOP friendly sample too if you ask me.

For Reference

2016 Exit Polls:

36% Republican
30% Independent
34% Democrat

Monmouth Sample after weighting (change from 2016)
38% Republican (+2)
33% Independent (+3)
28% Democrat (-6)

Oh god. That's even worse than I thought.

I was wondering how they have it tied too when Biden is winning 96% of Ds (more Rs than Trump), 7% of Rs (more Ds than Trump), and 20%+ on Indies. That doesn't add up.

[Del Tachi]

"Likely Voters, Low Turnout" sounds like a COVID-19 electorate, no? 

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

If these are the cross tabs, Biden should be easily up. D-R was only 2 in 2016 and 5 in 2018. Take it to the bank it won’t be 10 in 2020.

They’re also the only poll to have a majority approving of Kemp’s COVID handling

[Devils30]

And I think they may have missed the other way in that PA poll with Biden +13 a few weeks ago.

[Rookie Yinzer]

"Likely Voters, Low Turnout" sounds like a COVID-19 electorate, no? 

You wish. The election is not going to be low turnout.

[Bidenworth2020]

"Likely Voters, Low Turnout" sounds like a COVID-19 electorate, no? 

Considering how motivated people are to vote according to this very poll and widespread access to mail in ballots, not necessarily.

[Del Tachi]

"Likely Voters, Low Turnout" sounds like a COVID-19 electorate, no? 

You wish. The election is not going to be low turnout.

Trump is also +1 in the LV, high turnout scenario.

The election is less than 100 days away.  Why are we still getting RV polls? 

[Devils30]

The turnout in the primaries was very high even with it being postponed, all mail. I think some of you expecting low turnout are going to be disappointed.

[Person Man]

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves with the unskewing. Maybe what happened to Romney could keep this election close. That is, a lot of people will be motivated only to come out to vote for Trump because of his gifts  to the various  “victims of modernity”.

[Bidenworth2020]

"Likely Voters, Low Turnout" sounds like a COVID-19 electorate, no? 

You wish. The election is not going to be low turnout.

Trump is also +1 in the LV, high turnout scenario.

The election is less than 100 days away.  Why are we still getting RV polls? 

They are providing LV turnout models too, so I dont see the issue? And by the way, the RV poll actually has Biden up 47.4/46.6 if you calculate it according to the crosstabs. That would essentially mean a tied race among high Turnout LV's, without factoring in what appears to be an undersampling of democrats in this poll.

[Rookie Yinzer]

"Likely Voters, Low Turnout" sounds like a COVID-19 electorate, no? 

You wish. The election is not going to be low turnout.

Trump is also +1 in the LV, high turnout scenario.

The election is less than 100 days away.  Why are we still getting RV polls? 

In a poll skewed towards the Republicans. Biden is up in GA.

[tagimaucia]

It's kinda amazing to say and shows how much trouble he's in, but isn't this arguably the best very high quality poll for Trump in a long time?  I'm probably forgetting something.

[Pollster]

This poll's turnout model looks like the one we would have used for a GA statewide race in 2012.