Belarus 2020 election type event.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2020/07/27/this-is-a-turning-point-in-belarusian-history

As Belarus approaches its presidential elections on August 9, the 2020 race has already been deemed the dirtiest in the country’s history: the authorities arrested alternative candidate Viktor Babariko (Viktar Babaryka) and opposition leader Sergey Tikhanovsky (Syarhey Tsikhanouski), while another would-be candidate, veteran politician Valery Tsepkalo (Valeryy Tsapkala), recently fled to Russia with his children. In response, the Belarusian opposition united around Svetlana Tikhanovskaya (Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya), who decided to run in the presidential elections in place of her husband.

https://www.the-american-interest.com/2020/07/23/should-the-west-be-worried-about-belarus/

In the past, the authoritarian Lukashenka could count on a variety of factors to ensure a landslide victory. There was his genuine appeal to rural and working-class voters, as well as pensioners. To an electorate that identifies strongly with Russia, Lukashenka could claim the mantle of “best friend of Russia” compared to more Western-oriented opponents, and he could count on some degree of moral and material support, variously enthusiastic or grudging, from Moscow. He could engineer the removal on technicalities of strong challengers from the ballot, ensuring that he faced only token opposition on election day. Lukashenka’s total control of the state facilitated the mobilization of administrative resources to help lubricate the wheels of electoral triumph, and a bit of judicious ballot-stuffing ensured a blowout victory every time, at least on paper. As the embodiment of the overwhelming Belarusian longing for post-Soviet stability, Batka (“Daddy”) Lukashenka has had scant need to engage in mass repressions in order to cling to power—a few timely, precision-guided repressions have always sufficed.

Now, suddenly, things are shaping up rather differently. Since March, Belarus has been pummeled by the twin blows of the coronavirus pandemic and economic recession, with a widespread perception that Lukashenka mishandled the first and has no credible remedy for the second. Estimates of his popular support vary wildly, but there is a whiff of vulnerability about him. And after 26 years in power, with the actuarial tables as the sole limiting factor, Batka can hardly hope to escape a certain degree of incumbent fatigue. To what extent does the populace view him as the strong and wise father of the nation, or see him instead as a cantankerous and increasingly befuddled old man? At what point does stability degenerate into stagnation?

[PSOL]

Isn’t it a rule or something that elections clearly going to be rigged aren’t supposed to be posted?

[DC Al Fine]

Isn’t it a rule or something that elections clearly going to be rigged aren’t supposed to be posted?

I think the unwritten rule is that we post them but we call them "electoral type events" instead of elections.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though as the OP made clear, there are things that might make this one *slightly* more interesting than has been the norm in the Luka era.

[Dereich]

Isn’t it a rule or something that elections clearly going to be rigged aren’t supposed to be posted?

I think the unwritten rule is that we post them but we call them "electoral type events" instead of elections.

No, he's right. Its actually written in the rules thread that sham elections shouldn't be posted.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though they often are, provided the thread title makes clear they are actually that?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Isn’t it a rule or something that elections clearly going to be rigged aren’t supposed to be posted?

I think the unwritten rule is that we post them but we call them "electoral type events" instead of elections.

No, he's right. Its actually written in the rules thread that sham elections shouldn't be posted.

My mistake. Thank you (or whoever corrected the thread title).

I don't dispute that it is not anything close to a free or fair election. But it looks to be the most contentious election-type event in Belarus in decades.

https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1288888807408926723

[Estrella]

Let's make a bet: which of these do you think is the most likely outcome?

A. Mr. Cockroach digs his heels in and rigs the bejeezus out of the vote, for a result of something like 90%.

B. He decides to let off some pressure and gives himself 70% or so - not close enough to let opposition think they have a chance in the next election, but he at least gives them something to be satisfied with.

C. He's not actually all that good at, ehm, adjusting the numbers and it blows up in his face. Opposition will be much more vigilant and they could, say, catch some poll workers stuffing the ballot boxes. Record it, post it on the internet, pandemonium ensues, people go out and protest, Luka trots out OMON, etc. He will still win, of course, but he will have even less legitimacy than under any other scenario.

I think it's gonna be A, mostly because I expect him to avoid the risk of emboldening the opposition. He probably doesn't want to do that either, but always has the backup option to simply start disappearing people who are too outspoken about certain things.  

Whatever is the outcome, I really hope that they release detailed results (as in, on regional/municipal/polling station level) because the only real question about this election is whether Luka's people have heard of Benford's law or should he hire someone better at math.

[Storr]

Isn’t it a rule or something that elections clearly going to be rigged aren’t supposed to be posted?

I think the unwritten rule is that we post them but we call them "electoral type events" instead of elections.

No, he's right. Its actually written in the rules thread that sham elections shouldn't be posted.

My mistake. Thank you (or whoever corrected the thread title).

I don't dispute that it is not anything close to a free or fair election. But it looks to be the most contentious election-type event in Belarus in decades.

https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1288888807408926723

Wow, that crowd is huge!
Also, seeing it in rally/protest photos reminded me that the opposition Belarusian flag is much better than the quasi-Soviet Lukashenko flag. 

[Tender Branson]

Good sign, but it will be rigged again.

Unless there's a revolution on election day, with millions of people protesting outside and demanding their votes get properly counted this time.

[CumbrianLefty]

Good sign, but it will be rigged again.

Unless there's a revolution on election day, with millions of people protesting outside and demanding their votes get properly counted this time.

But as said upthread, there are degrees of rigging. Luka might have to bend to reality just a bit this time.

[Mike88]

Good sign, but it will be rigged again.

Unless there's a revolution on election day, with millions of people protesting outside and demanding their votes get properly counted this time.

But as said upthread, there are degrees of rigging. Luka might have to bend to reality just a bit this time.

Well, that's true. But anything below 70% for Lukashenko is a big defeat. And, who knows, it's 2020, this could be the beginning of the end for Lukashenko regime.

[catographer]

What’s the take on Putin’s stance here? Does he support Lukashenko? Would he step in to save him?

[The Mikado]

Lukashenko %s to date in past electoral events:

1994: 80.6%
2001: 77.4%
2006: 84.4%
2010: 80.4%
2015:  84.1%

Guy REALLY likes the low 80s.

[kelestian]

What’s the take on Putin’s stance here? Does he support Lukashenko? Would he step in to save him?

Their relations are not good recently. But all opposition figures are even more anti-Putin, so he would stick with Luka or would risk lose any influence here

[Tender Branson]

Tikanovskaya probably has 60% real support in the population, but will end up with 10-20% in the „corrected“ results tomorrow as released by the dictator.

Hopefully Minsk burns in that case.

[Mike88]

According to wikipedia, turnout is, currently, at 32%. That's early voting, right? And how does it work? By mail or present?

[warandwar]

Tikanovskaya probably has 60% real support in the population, but will end up with 10-20% in the „corrected“ results tomorrow as released by the dictator.

Hopefully Minsk burns in that case.

We'd be seeing a different situation if she had 60%. Probably closer to 40.

[Lord Halifax]

Tikanovskaya probably has 60% real support in the population, but will end up with 10-20% in the „corrected“ results tomorrow as released by the dictator.

Hopefully Minsk burns in that case.

We'd be seeing a different situation if she had 60%. Probably closer to 40.

Why do you think that?

[Tender Branson]

Dictator Lukashenko has just deployed massive amounts of army personal and police + equipment in front of his government building and at the entrances to parks and squares.

Meanwhile, people in Minsk and abroad are voting in record numbers, with voters of opposition candidates dressed in white clothes today.

People standing in line in Minsk and elsewhere are more than 50% dressed in white according to Twitter pictures, but the dictator will of course release results with 70%+ today.

Minsk & Co. must burn tonight and the dictator must be forced into exile or be killed by the people of Belarus !

[Beet]

What’s the take on Putin’s stance here? Does he support Lukashenko? Would he step in to save him?

Their relations are not good recently. But all opposition figures are even more anti-Putin, so he would stick with Luka or would risk lose any influence here

If Putin rolls tanks into Minsk what is Trump going to do. The opposition should be careful or they will find themselves without a country. Look at what happened after the US-backed 'revolution' in Ukraine.

[Tender Branson]

The people of Belarus clearly have enough of their Hitler:

https://twitter.com/belsat_tv/status/1292427161132032005

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Lukashenko appears to be rolling his own troops into Minsk

Troops spotted heading into Belarus capital Minsk

Belarus troops were spotted heading into the capital Minsk, in military trucks around today.

The trucks, armoured and tactical vehicles were spotted and recorded on video on the streets ahead of the presidential election.

Also, Radio Free Europe correspondents reported that at the entrances to Minsk, were spotted armored vehicles and police which stop and check cars.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Internet access limited in Belarus, number of sites blocked

In the morning, the independent monitoring site Zubr.in became unavailable. It looks like the IP of the webpage has been blocked. The creators of the platform offer users to write reports of electoral law violations via Telegram-bot @zubr_assist_bot.

Other users report low speed of file uploads to Telegram without proxy services. Websites such as YouTube, Google, VPN services work poorly. Moreover, not only mobile Internet users but also Beltelecom broadband users have problem with Internet access. Reports of Internet interruptions come from all regions of Belarus.

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1292482808636735488