Districts based on Obama '08 voters

[bagelman]

Tennessee, 7 districts

TN-1: Appalachian Northeast. McCain +34.4 (66-32), white-black 90-5.

TN-2: East. McCain +30.2 (64-34), white-black 86-9.

TN-3: Central-East. McCain +26.4 (62-36), white-hispanic-black 86-5-7.

TN-4: Nashville. Obama +21.8 (60-39), white-hispanic-black 57-10-29.

TN-5: Central-West. McCain +28.1 (63-35), white-black 84-10.

TN-6: West. McCain +3.3, white-black 55-38.

TN-7: Memphis. Obama +51.2 (75-24), white-hispanic-black 30-6-63.

[bagelman]

Texas



Texas loses by far the most compared to our world; the double decker of a heavily Republican white population and a very low turnout hispanic Democratic population.

TX-01: East Texas. McCain +41.4, white-hispanic-black 70-13-16. A mess of small cities. Had 1.5 million people. Safe R.

TX-02: Outer Northeast DFTW. McCain +31.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 67-14-9-8. Population 1.3 million. Suburban, exurban, and small cities like Paris. Safe R.

TX-03: Outer Northwest DFTW. McCain +33.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 70-16-7-6. Safe R.

TX-04: West and North Dallas County. McCain +9.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 48-30-15-7. Will likely be competitive in the future. Likely R for 2008.

TX-05: Dallas City. Obama +38.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 21-52-22-5. Even Texas has urban Democratic seats. Safe D.

TX-06: Arlington and Fort Worth. Obama +16.4, white-hispanic-black-asian 34-36-24-6. Likely D.

TX-07: South and south of Dallas. Obama +8, white-hispanic-black 41-26-31. Waco united with the south parts of Dallas city. Pay no attention to the lawyer behind the curtain. Also Bryan in the furthest south. Tossup.

TX-08: Outer Tarrant County on south. McCain +35, white-hispanic-black 69-17-11. Fort Hood military brass vs. Fort Worth suburbanites. Safe R.

TX-09: Mostly northern Houston sub/exurbs with and College Station. McCain +20.6. Safe R.

TX-10: Galveston Bay Area, Sabine, and suburbia. McCain +30.6. Safe R.

TX-11: North and Northeast Houston. Obama +41.2, white-hispanic-black 16-52-29.

TX-12: South and Southeast Houston, small slice of the southwest. Obama +40, white-hispanic-black-asian 15-51-28-7. Safe D.

TX-13: West and Northwest Houston. McCain +7.4, white-hispanic-black-asian 40-38-13-10. Don't expect this one to stay Likely R forever.

TX-14: Sugar Land all the way to east Austin. Obama +3.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 37-32-19-12. Tossup/Lean R for now, will remain competitive.

TX-15: Austin. Obama +41.7, white-hispanic-black-asian 53-31-8-7. Reminder of very different districting practices in this world.

TX-16: Outer Austin. McCain +11.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 63-26-6-5. Likely R for now.

TX-17: Gulf to Rio. McCain +3.6, white-hispanic 30-65. Lean R, good seat for a hispanic Republican.

TX-18: Mouth of the Rio. Obama +35.8, white-hispanic 9-90. Safe D, goes to the King of the South Texas machine.

TX-19: San Antonio City. Obama +33.4, white-hispanic-black 16-74-9. Safe D.

TX-20: Outer San Antonio west to Uvalde. McCain +25.4, white-hispanic-black 53-38-6.

TX-21: Northwest and Central Texas. McCain +49.6, white-hispanic-black 64-29-6. Population 1.8 million. Safe R. A Texas sized district.

TX-22: West Texas. Obama +2, white-hispanic 23-72. Tug of War between El Paso and the greater Midland area. Republicans will want to run a hispanic here to defend this competitive seat.

[bagelman]

Virginia, 12 districts

VA-01: Beltway. Obama +41.5 (70-29), white-hispanic-black-asian 61-15-14-11.

VA-02: Fairfax. Obama +24.4 (61-37), white-hispanic-black-asian 50-19-12-19.

VA-03: West Nova. Obama +13.3, white-hispanic-black-asian 59-12-10-19.

VA-04: Lower Potomac. Obama +2.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 60-14-2-6.

VA-05: Northwest Virginia. McCain +6.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 76-9-8-8.

VA-06: Jamestown and suburbia. Obama +0.8, white-hispanic-black 64-5-28.

VA-07: Richmond. Obama +10.2, white-hispanic-black 59-7-30.

VA-08: Hampton Roads. Obama +37.9 (69-31), white-hispanic-black 44-5-48.

VA-09: Virginia Beach. Obama +1.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 63-6-26-6.

VA-10: Tobacco country. Obama +3.4, white-black 59-37.

VA-11: Central West. McCain +2.6, white-black 75-19.

VA-12: Southwest. McCain +19.5, white-black 89-7.

[bagelman]

Washington, 11 districts



WA-01: North Seattle. Obama +60.3 (79-19), white-hispanic-black-asian 76-6-5-13.

WA-02: Downtown Seattle. Obama +72.6 (86-13), white-hispanic-black-asian 60-7-12-20.

WA-03: South and East sides. Obama +31.2 (65-34), white-hispanic-black-asian 55-13-11-18.

WA-04: Outer Seattle. Obama +20.8, white-hispanic-asian 69-8-18.

WA-05: Everett and northern inner suburbs of Seattle. Obama +21.9, white-hispanic-asian 72-9-12.

WA-06: Olympia and outer Tacoma. Obama +8.3, white-hispanic-black-asian 75-8-6-8.

WA-07: Kitsap. Obama +18.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 72-8-9-8.

WA-08: Southwest Washington. Obama +13.9, white-hispanic-asian 82-8-5. A mixed bag of Vancouver, Longview, Aberdeen, and western Olympia - with plenty of rurals in between.

WA-09: Northwest Washington. Obama +17, white-hispanic 82-8. Less suburbia and more liberal exurbs and small cities, not to mention lots of water and forest.

WA-10: Central Washington. McCain +15.8, white-hispanic 70-24. Small cities and conservative mountain west communities.

WA-11: Eastern Washington. McCain +6.9, white-hispanic 80-12. Most of the population is from Spokane.

[bagelman]

Last on the list...

Wisconsin, 10 districts.



Wisconsin is surprisingly polarized.

WI-01: Southeast Wisconsin. Obama +12.7, white-hispanic-black 80-11-8.

WI-02: Most of Milwaukee. Obama +17.1, white-hispanic-black 72-19-6.

WI-03: North and Northwest Milwaukee. Obama +53.1 (76-23), white-black 36-56.

WI-04: WOW. McCain +23.5 (61-38), 93% white. Only McCain district.

WI-05: Madison. Obama +50.7 (75-24), white-hispanic-black-asian 79-7-8-7.

WI-06: Southwest Wisconsin. Obama +23.7 (61-38), 94% white.

WI-07: Central Wisconsin, Lake Winnebago in the east. Obama +12.6, 91% white. Drawn to include Fond du Lac in the southeastern corner.

WI-08: Northeast Wisconsin. Obama +9.2, white-hispanic 87-5. Green Bay as the primary city, includes Sheboygan in the southeast corner.

WI-09: West Wisconsin. Obama +13.3, 93% white. Both Eau Claire and La Crosse.

WI-10: North Wisconsin. Obama +11.6, 93% white. Mostly rural and smaller cities.

Obama won these 9-1, but only 2 out of 9 are Safely D.