Districts based on Obama '08 voters
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bagelman
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« on: July 27, 2020, 05:08:03 PM »
« edited: July 27, 2020, 05:13:12 PM by bagelman »

A map of the 2008 electoral college in this world, with states colored on how many EV's they gain or lose relative to our world's 2008.



When I've been bored, especially during this quarantine, I've been making maps based on states apportioned based on number of voters for a specific candidate. In other worlds, states where each CD has an equal number of votes for a particular candidate, ignoring their total population. The result is an alternate US where the population is differently distributed, including a much larger DC that has statehood. I've pretty much made all of them: DRA is strangely addicting for me.

This has generally been Obama '08 (this thread), McCain '08, Hillary '16, or Trump '16. This map series will show each state's congressional districts in this world, the population they have in our world, and how Obama did in them in our world.

In this alternative world, McCain probably did very slightly better in most districts nationwide to compensate for the population redistribution (Republicans trying harder to win voters in the inner suburbs and cities). However, the results of the election was the same as OTL + Missouri voting for Obama. Time will tell if this world experiences a Republican uprising similar to the Tea Party or if Obama is able to chart a smoother course ahead for the nation and all it's 51 states.
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bagelman
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« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2020, 05:26:31 PM »
« Edited: July 27, 2020, 07:34:31 PM by bagelman »

I honestly don't know whether to upload these in alphabetical order or by reverse order of population as many of these threads tend to do. I'll start with the latter for introductory purposes.

A few of these maps have a different color scheme because I made many of them before DRA 2020 restored blue as the 1st CD. In those, the 1st district is green.

First off: Delaware, 2 districts.



Both districts have about 127-128k votes for Obama.

DE-1: Safe D, Wilmington. Obama +41.9 (70-28), white-black 62-24. Home seat of the Vice President Elect, Joe Biden.

DE-2: Lean D, rest of state. Obama +11.7, white-black 68-22. Surprisingly similar racially, but local Republicans will try to compete here should they smell a wave year.

In our world, the second district has 76k more people than the 1st.
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bagelman
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« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2020, 05:50:16 PM »
« Edited: July 28, 2020, 03:00:16 PM by bagelman »

Idaho, 2 districts



Both have just over 118k votes for Obama.

ID-1: Safe R, McCain +31.4, 86-9 white-hispanic

ID-2: Safe R, McCain +18.3, 81-13 white-hispanic

Little to see here. Idaho is about the same state as it is in OTL.

In our world, the 1st district is oversized by 50.6k people.
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bagelman
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« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2020, 06:00:34 PM »
« Edited: July 28, 2020, 03:00:03 PM by bagelman »

Montana, 2 districts



Both districts have just over 116k Obama votes.

MT-1: east, McCain +6.9, 86-9 white-native

MT-2: west, Obama +2.6, 89-7 white-native

The second district might elect a Democrat in good years, but would lean slightly R.
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bagelman
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« Reply #4 on: July 27, 2020, 07:11:02 PM »
« Edited: July 27, 2020, 07:27:32 PM by bagelman »

Nebraska - 2 districts



Both districts have just over 166.5k votes for Obama.

NE-1: McCain +2.9, 76-10-10 white-hispanic-black

NE-2: McCain +24.3, 87-8 white-hispanic

McCain wins all of Nebraska.

There is a population difference of 109.5k between the two districts.

Democrats would prefer an Omaha-Lincoln district, but there probably wouldn't be enough else left for the second district.
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bagelman
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« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2020, 07:26:34 PM »
« Edited: July 28, 2020, 02:59:49 PM by bagelman »

New Hampshire, 2 districts



NH-1: Obama +2.3

NH-2: Obama +18.1

The first is quite competitive and will be targeted by Republicans in the midterms, wave or no. The second is D leaning though probably elastic enough to avoid being safe. Both are >90% white.
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bagelman
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« Reply #6 on: July 27, 2020, 07:39:43 PM »

Rhode Island, 2 districts



RI-1: Obama +39.4 (McCain under 30%), 63-21-12 white-hispanic-black. Mostly Providence, Safe D.

RI-2: Obama +18.3, >90% white. Rest of state, Likely D.
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bagelman
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« Reply #7 on: July 28, 2020, 01:35:32 PM »

Utah - 2 Districts



UT-1: Inner, Obama +9.8, white-hispanic 71-19

UT-2: Outer, McCain +46.1 (72-25), white-hispanic 85-10

There is a population different of 529,000 people between the two districts, which both have just over 163,700 votes for Obama.

If Democrats can find a Mormon, they can hold the Inner district. The Outer district is among the most Republican in the nation.
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bagelman
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« Reply #8 on: July 28, 2020, 01:41:14 PM »

West Virginia - 2 Districts



WV-1: Northeast, McCain +15.3

WV-2: Southwest, McCain +10.9

Both are >90% white.

By 2008, WV had already completed its political transformation into the Republican bastion we know today, and neither is competitive. While both have about 152k votes for Obama, the population disparity between them is less than 1000: this is a decent enough two way split of the state. This makes WV a sort of opposite to UT.
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bagelman
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« Reply #9 on: July 28, 2020, 02:02:54 PM »

The last of the two seaters, Washington DC. 2 districts.



DC-1: East, Obama 96-4, white-black 16-77

DC-2: West, includes the White House and Capitol Hill, Obama 90-9, white-black-hispanic-asian 52-26-14-6.

These two seats are likely to elect two different types of Democrats, but both are always going to elect Democrats of some type or another.

Both have just over 122k Obama votes, and the western seat loses 18.5k people relative to the east in this alternate universe.

I'm torn between going to all the 3 seaters or just looping back to alphabetical order with Alabama. Anyone have a comment?
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bagelman
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« Reply #10 on: July 28, 2020, 08:22:45 PM »
« Edited: July 28, 2020, 08:29:26 PM by bagelman »

Actually, here's the last of the two-seaters: Hawaii.



HI-1: 70-28 Obama, 68% Asian 20% Pacific Islander 17% White 7% Hispanic

HI-2: 74-25 Obama, 46% Asian 33% Pacific Islander 29% White 11% Hispanic

The urban district actually gets bigger.

I think I'll loop back to AL on my next post, because if I try and order it smallest to largest it'll be more work for me. Unless someone wants to see WI first, I guess.
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Joseph Cao
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« Reply #11 on: July 28, 2020, 11:56:12 PM »

Neat project! The states with AA VRA districts are going to be interesting.
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S019
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« Reply #12 on: July 29, 2020, 12:11:06 AM »

This is an interesting project, just a quick question, how did you do DC as DRA doesn't have DC available.
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bagelman
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« Reply #13 on: July 29, 2020, 06:33:20 PM »
« Edited: August 06, 2020, 02:37:49 PM by bagelman »

Alabama, 5 Districts.



AL-1: South. McCain +27.6 (64-36), white-black 27-27. From Mobile to Dothan.

AL-2: Black Belt. Obama +17 (58-41), white-black 44-51.

AL-3: Central. McCain +38.2 (69-31), white-black 74-20. Includes the cities of Gadsden, Oxford, and Tuscaloosa, along with a slice of Montgomery's northern suburbs.

AL-4: Birmingham. Obama +12.4 (56-43), white-black 48-46

AL-5: North. McCain +38.5 (69-30), white-black 80-12. Notable cities include Huntsville, Decatur, and the Shoals.

While the 4th could be safer, voter inelasticity in Alabama makes this a pretty sure 3R-2D bet.

This is an interesting project, just a quick question, how did you do DC as DRA doesn't have DC available.

Use old DRA. You may have to use MSIE and install Sliverlight, which is considered obsolete. If your system does have MSIE (I know it's not on Windows 10 and is on Windows 7, not sure about 8.x) then I can't guarantee it'll work.
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bagelman
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« Reply #14 on: July 29, 2020, 07:09:07 PM »
« Edited: August 06, 2020, 02:38:16 PM by bagelman »

Arkansas, 3 districts



AR-1: East, McCain +20.8 (59-38), white-black 77-19. Many small cities including Jonesboro, West Memphis, Mountain Home etc.

AR-2: Central, McCain +4.1, white-black 65-28. Little Rock and Pine Bluff areas, but enough smaller conservative towns to keep it in the GOP column.

AR-3: West, McCain +30.3 (64-34), white-black-hispanic 79-6-10.

3-0 R.
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bagelman
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« Reply #15 on: July 30, 2020, 12:24:22 PM »
« Edited: August 06, 2020, 02:39:20 PM by bagelman »

Arizona, 6 districts.

I made two maps for AZ, a neat one and a messy one.

First the neat one:



AZ-1: Tucson, Obama +11.6, white-hispanic-black 53-37-5.

AZ-2: South and West Arizona outside Tucson, McCain +18.7, white-hispanic-native 58-33-5. This district, anchored by Yuma, even includes some of the outermost areas of the Phoenix metro such as Buckeye.

AZ-3: Northeast Arizona, McCain +16, white-hispanic-native 69-11-17. Liberal Flagstaff and conservative Prescott are the largest cities. Some of the most conservative areas of northernmost Phoenix are included and keep this district strongly R.



AZ-4: Eastern Sun Valley, McCain +17.1, white-hispanic-black-asian 66-22-5-5. Mesa, Gilbert, Chandler, and the east side of Tempe.

AZ-5: Phoenix, Obama +9.8, white-hispanic-black 45-42-8. Includes most of Scottsdale, which doesn't dilute urban Phoenix enough to matter.

AZ-6: Western Sun Valley, McCain +11, white-hispanic-black 56-33-7. The highway goes from Glendale through Peoria to Surprise, and the district goes down to Tolleson and Litchfield Park. If this world follows a similar trajectory as ours, then this district might be competitive in 10 years.

The messy version:



AZ-1: Tucson, Obama +11.6, white-hispanic-black 53-37-5.

AZ-2: South and West Arizona, McCain +24.6 (62-37), white-hispanic 65-28. This district, anchored by Yuma, even includes some of the outermost areas of the Phoenix metro such as Buckeye.

AZ-3: East Arizona. Obama +3.1, white-hispanic-native 50-23-21. Crafted to give the native people of the northeast Hope and Change. Still capable of electing a Republican, but Democrats are favored.



AZ-4: Eastern Sun Valley and Gila, McCain +24.9 (62-37), white-hispanic-asian 74-17-5.

AZ-5: Phoenix, Obama +9.8, white-hispanic-black 45-42-8. Includes most of Scottsdale, which doesn't dilute urban Phoenix enough to matter.

AZ-6: Western Sun Valley, McCain +11, white-hispanic-black 56-33-7. The highway goes from Glendale through Peoria to Surprise, and the district goes down to Tolleson and Litchfield Park. If this world follows a similar trajectory as ours, then this district might be competitive in 10 years.
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bagelman
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« Reply #16 on: July 31, 2020, 03:44:15 PM »
« Edited: August 06, 2020, 02:40:31 PM by bagelman »

California, 52 districts.

Why does California lose a district compared to OTL? Lower turnout in a safe state plays a role, however Los Angeles city is full of non-voting poor and non-citizen immigrants.



CA-01: Northeast California, McCain +14.4, white-hispanic-asian-native 71-18-5-5. Yuba City, Chico, Redding, and the "great" prisons of Susanville.

CA-02: North Pacific, Obama +33.2, white-hispanic-native 69-21-6. Eureka to Windsor, just north of Santa Rosa. A land of hippies.



CA-03: Wine Country, Obama +47.8, white-hispanic-asian 62-28-7. Sant a Rosa, Petaluma, and Napa in the east.

CA-04: Lake Tahoe. McCain +8, white-hispanic-asian 80-12-5. This is actually a Sacramento outer suburb district for the most part.

CA-05: Sacramento Inner Suburbs, Obama +5.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 60-17-10-13. The principle population center is the curve of the district directly east of the city. Likely to be competitive.

CA-06: Sacramento, Obama +40.4, white-hispanic-black-asian 34-27-17-22. Extends south down to Laguna.

CA-07: North Bay, Obama +60.2, white-hispanic-asian 68-12-16. We jump back to the bay area. This district is mostly county but includes some neighbors across the bridge.

CA-08: San Francisco, Obama +77.4, white-hispanic-black-asian 49-12-7-32.

CA-09: South San Francisco, Obama +64.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 26-22-8-45. Does not actually include the city of South San Francisco, which is in the 10th.

CA-10: San Mateo. Obama +46.8, white-hispanic-asian 48-26-21. South San Fransisco to East Palo Alto, with the small town of Pacifica thrown in.

CA-11: Santa Cruz-Los Gatos. Obama +47.8, white-hispanic-asian 62-24-12.

CA-12: Vallejo-Davis-Lodi. Obama +24, white-hispanic-black-asian 46-26-12-17. Also includes Fairfield and Vacaville

CA-13: North East Bay. Obama +52.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 35-33-15-17. Richmond, Concord, and Antioch.

CA-14: Oakland-Berkeley. Obama +85.6, white-hispanic-black-asian 49-10-19-22. Largest population increase.

CA-15: East Bay Central. Obama +66.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 26-28-22-24.

CA-16: East Of Bay. Obama +26, white-hispanic-black-asian 62-14-6-18. Walnut Creek, San Ramon, and Brentwood.

CA-17: East Bay South. Obama +44.6, white-hispanic-black-asian 28-24-7-41. Centered on Fremont.

CA-18: Southernmost Bay. Obama +49.4, white-hispanic-asian 40-15-42. Silicon Valley.

CA-19: San Jose. Obama +41.2, white-hispanic-asian 34-31-32.



CA-20: Stockton. Obama +11.4, white-hispanic-black-asian 41-37-8-15.

CA-21: Outer SJ-Gilroy-Salinas-Los Banos (west valley?). Obama +34.6. white-hispanic-asian 25-52-20.

CA-22: Central Valley. Obama +13, white-hispanic-black-asian 31-53-6-10. Turlock down to Fresno.

CA-23: Central Coast. Obama +11, white-hispanic-asian 54-37-6. SLO and Santa Maria as the largest cities.

CA-24: South Valley. McCain +1.6, white-hispanic-black-asian 29-61-5-5. Splits Bakersfield with the 51st, most people outside Bakersfield are in small cities to the north.

CA-25: Oxnard. Obama +32.4, white-hispanic-asian 44-46-7.



CA-26: San Gabriel. Obama +14.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 31-52-11-7. Santa Clarita, Palmdale, Lancaster, and Victorville - the latter two split with the 51st.

CA-27: Rich West LA. Obama +12, white-hispanic-asian 68-18-11. Thousand Oaks is the largest city.

CA-28: Obama +37.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 33-49-5-14.

CA-29: Beverly. Obama +49.2, white-hispanic-asian 73-10-13.

CA-30: Obama +39. white-hispanic-asian 59-21-16.

CA-31: LA west coast. Obama +40.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 59-19-6-17.

CA-32: Inglewood. Obama +85.4 (>90%), white-hispanic-black 10-39-48.

CA-33: Downtown LA, Obama +63. white-hispanic-black-asian 15-57-9-20.

CA-34: South Rich LA, Obama +30.6. white-hispanic-black-asian 24-43-13-21.

CA-35: South Central LA. Obama +82.4. hispanic-black 82-17, almost no NH whites.

CA-36: Northeast DT LA/Arcadia. Obama +35.4, white-hispanic-black-asian 23-34-5-39.

CA-37: East LA outward. Obama +45.4, white-hispanic-asian 9-79-11.

CA-38: Southeast LA/Long Beach. Obama +46.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 28-45-14-14.

CA-39: Huntingdon Beach/Cypress. Obama +2.2 (!), white-hispanic-asian 38-33-25.

CA-40: North Anaheim to Covina. Obama +15.6, white-hispanic-asian 24-55-19.

CA-41: Yorba Linda/Pomona. Obama +1 (Lean R), white-hispanic-asian 37-38-21.

CA-42: Ontario-Fontana. Obama +16.6, white-hispanic-black-asian 26-56-10-10.

CA-43:Riverside-San Bernardino cities. Obama +14.6, white-hispanic-black-asian 30-52-10-8.

CA-44: Irvine-South Anahiem. Obama +8.4, white-hispanic-asian 26-47-25.

CA-45: Costa Mesa-West OC. McCain +5, white-hispanic-asian 64-19-14.

CA-46: Minifee-Palm Springs. Obama +3, white-hispanic-black-asian 42-43-9-6.



CA-47: South OC-North SDC. McCain +0.8, white-hispanic-asian 62-27-8. Oceanside as largest city.

CA-48: North San Diego. Obama +17, white-hispanic-black-asian 58-15-5-23.

CA-49: San Diego exurbs. McCain +16.2, white-hispanic-asian 60-26-10. Escondido.

CA-50: San Diego. Obama +37, white-hispanic-black-asian 42-34-12-13.

CA-51: ESE California. McCain +25.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 61-27-5-5. Crafted for Republicans,  large district including north Bakersfield, parts of Lancaster and Victorville as well as suburbs of the latter, small towns, and Death Valley.

CA-52: Mexican Border. Obama +19.6, white-hispanic-black-asian 22-64-6-9. All of Imperial County and all of the southern border.
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bagelman
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« Reply #17 on: August 06, 2020, 02:21:03 PM »
« Edited: August 06, 2020, 02:31:31 PM by bagelman »

Colorado, 8 districts



CO-1: Jefferson County, Obama +9, white-hispanic 80-14. Suburban, Lean D.

CO-2: West Colorado. McCain +4.2, white-hispanic 78-18. Likely R.

CO-3: Central-South Colorado. McCain +11.7, white-hispanic-black 68-21-7. Colorado Springs and Pueblo. Safe R

CO-4: East Colorado. McCain +13.7, white-hispanic 76-18. Includes cities as far west as Longmont and Castle Rock. Safe R



(I actually gave the 1st two precincts from the 2nd after taking this screenshot, but that doesn't change much)

CO-5: South/east suburban Denver. Obama +14.3, white-hispanic-black-asian 62-20-11-6. From Sheridan to Aurora, and as far south as Centennial and Foxfield. Likely D.

CO-6: Denver. Obama +54.5 (77-22), white-hispanic-black 58-28-9.  Safe D.

CO-7: North Suburban Denver. Obama +27.4 (63-35), white-hispanic-black-asian 53-35-7-5. Safe D.

CO-8: North Central Colorado. Obama +28.4 (63-35), white-hispanic 85-10. Boulder, Loveland, and Fort Collins - all in the eastern far more populated section of the district. Safe D.

5-3. All have around 160-161k Obama votes.
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bagelman
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« Reply #18 on: August 06, 2020, 02:35:17 PM »

Connecticut, 6 districts.



CT-1: Southwest CT. Obama +25.6 (63-37), white-hispanic-black-asian 59-20-16-6.

CT-2: Northwest CT. Obama +5.4, white-hispanic 86-8. Danbury and Bristol as the larger cities.

CT-3: South Central CT. Obama +27.9 (63-36), white-hispanic-black-asian 62-17-18-5. New Haven and Waterbury as most notable cities.

CT-4: Central and South CT (which is different). Obama +21.9 (60-38), white-hispanic-black 79-12-6. Smaller cities between New Haven and Hartford, then takes some rurals towards the coast.

CT-5: North Central CT. Obama +38.9 (69-30), white-hispanic-black-asian 58-18-21-6. Hartford.

CT-6: East CT. Obama +19.9 (59-39), white-hispanic-black 83-7-6. Relative to our world, this district has changed the least.

All but the 2nd are Safe D.
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bagelman
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« Reply #19 on: August 07, 2020, 07:51:11 PM »

Florida, 27 districts

Each district has about 158-9k Obama votes.



FL-01: West Panhandle. McCain +36.2 (68-31), white-hispanic-black 76-5-15. Safe R.

FL-02: North Panhandle, Tallahassee to Gainesville. Obama +27.7 (63-36), white-hispanic-black 54-7-35. Safe D.

FL-03: Outer Jacksonville. McCain +30.2 (65-35), white-hispanic-black 80-7-10. Safe R.

FL-04: Jacksonvile. Obama +11.4, white-hispanic-black-asian 48-8-39-5. Likely D.

FL-05: South Panhandle and Ocala.  McCain +19.3, white-hispanic-black 77-8-13. Safe R.



FL-06: Daytona Deltona. Obama +1.7, white-hispanic-black 74-12-11. Lean R.

FL-07: Hernando Citrus Sumter Lake. McCain +11.1, white-hispanic-black 76-11-9. Safe enough R.

FL-08: East Orlando and suburbia. Obama +1.9, white-hispanic-black 64-19-13. Lean R to future Tossup.

FL-09: West Orlando and suburbia. Obama +37.6 (69-31), white-hispanic-black-asian 33-33-30-6. Safe D.

FL-10: Brevard and Indian River. McCain +11.4, white-hispanic-black 78-9-11. Safe enough R.

FL-11: Pasco and north of TB. McCain +5.8, white-hispanic-black 80-12-5. Likely R.

FL-12: Saint Petersburg. Obama +13.8, white-hispanic-black 74-7-14. Lean D at least.

FL-13: Tampa-Clearwater. Obama +10, white-hispanic-black 60-25-13. Lean D at least.

FL-14: East Tampa. Obama +5.1, white-hispanic-black 55-21-20. Tossup.

FL-15: Lakeland Kissimmee. Obama +3.7, white-hispanic-black 55-27-16. Tossup.

FL-16: Vast Swampland. McCain +13.6, white-hispanic-black 58-29-11. Politically controlled by Naples, Safe R.

FL-17: Bradenton Sarasota. McCain +3.2, white-hispanic-black 79-12-8. Likely R.

FL-18: Fort Myers. McCain +9.5, white-hispanic-black 78-13-7. Safe R.

FL-19: Entering Southeast Florida: Port St. Lucie to north Palm Beach. Obama +2.9, white-hispanic-black 71-14-13. Lean R but competitive.



FL-20: Palm Beach. Obama +34.4 (67-33), white-hispanic-black 47-26-24. Safe D

FL-21: South Palm Beach County. Obama +22.5 (61-39), white-hispanic-black 72-12-13. Safe D

FL-22: North Central Broward. Obama +30.7 (65-34), white-hispanic-black 50-21-25. Safe D

FL-23: South Central Broward. Obama +43.5 (72-28), white-hispanic-black 41-20-36. Safe D

FL-24: North Miami-Dade. Obama +51.4 (76-24), white-hispanic-black 27-35-37. Safe D

FL-25: New Cuba. McCain +8.8, white-hispanic-black 16-78-6. Likely R for now, but if Republicans start losing younger Cubans, these could get interesting here.

FL-26: Miami. Obama +60.5 (80-20), white-hispanic-black 17-41-44. Includes Little Haiti and Downtown. Safe D

FL-27: Kendall. Obama +6.2, white-hispanic-black 19-67-14. This one is already trending towards Dems. Tossup for now ('08).
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bagelman
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« Reply #20 on: August 07, 2020, 11:47:10 PM »

Georgia, 12 districts



GA-01: North Georgia. McCain +49.9 (74-25), white-hispanic-black 80-11-7.

GA-02: Northwest Atlanta, McCain +25.1 (62-37), white-hispanic-black 80-8-17.

GA-03: Northeast Atlanta, McCain +3.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 47-22-18-14.

GA-04: East Outer Atlanta, McCain +14.3, white-hispanic-black 54-9-32.

GA-05: West and Southwest Outer Atlanta, Obama +10.1, white-hispanic-black 41-10-46.

GA-06: West Atlanta, Obama +71.8 (86-14), white-hispanic-black 29-7-61.

GA-07: East Atlanta, Obama +70.9 (85-14), white-black 23-68.

GA-08: South Atlanta, Obama +62.3 (81-19), white-hispanic-black 22-9-66.

GA-09: East Central Georgia, Obama +0.3, white-black 56-38. Athens and Macon united in a single district created for some conservadem to survive.

GA-10: Southeast Georgia, Obama +5.3, white-hispanic-black 52-5-40. Augusta and Savannah united in a single district.

GA-11: Southwest Georgia, Obama +3.9, white-black 48-46. Reminder that Georgia lost a district.

GA-12: South Central Georgia, McCain +33.3 (66-33), white-hispanic-black 67-6-25. All the left over Republicans from the last 3 districts.
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bagelman
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« Reply #21 on: August 19, 2020, 10:29:14 PM »

Iowa, 5 districts



IA-1: East Iowa, Obama +19.8, white-black 88-6.

IA-2: Northeast Iowa, Obama +13, 92% white. Waterloo and Mason City.

IA-3: Southeast Iowa, Obama +14.7, white-hispanic 89-6.

IA-4: Central Iowa/Des Moines, Obama +13.6, white-hispanic-black 83-6-6.

IA-5: West Iowa, McCain +8.4, white-hispanic 90-6.
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bagelman
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« Reply #22 on: August 19, 2020, 10:40:28 PM »

Illinois, 21 districts





IL-01: Southern suburbs of Chicago, Obama +62.3 (81-19), white-hispanic-black 29-20-50.

IL-02: South Chicago. Obama +95.6 (98-2), 93% black.

IL-03: South Chicago. Obama +96.9 (98-1), white-black 6-89.

IL-04: South and Central Cook Suburbs. Obama +38.6, white-hispanic-black 56-26-15.

IL-05: South Central Chicago. Obama +71.3 (85-14), white-hispanic-black-asian 16-58-20-7. Actually loses population due to low voter turnout relative to the rest of the city.

IL-06: Northwest Central Chicago. Obama +72.1 (86-14), white-hispanic-black-asian 26-43-28-5

IL-07: North Central Chicago. Obama +62 (79-20), white-hispanic-black-asian 68-18-8-8.

IL-08: North Chicago. Obama +60.8 (80-19), white-hispanic-black-asian 54-15-15-16.

IL-09: North Cook County. Obama +18.9, white-hispanic-asian 74-12-12.

IL-10: West Cook/East DuPage. Obama +6.1, white-hispanic-asian 78-11-6.

IL-11: Central/Southwest DuPage. Obama +14.5. white-hispanic-black-asian 62-21-7-10. Includes Naperville and Aurora in the west.

IL-12: Northwest Cook and neighboring areas. Obama +13.8, white-hispanic-asian 65-19-12.

IL-13: Will County. Obama +12.6, white-hispanic-black-asian 68-16-12-5.

IL-14: Lake County. Obama +22.5, white-hispanic-black-asian 63-21-8-7.

IL-15: Northwest exurbs to Rockford. Obama +9.1, white-hispanic-black 76-13-7.

IL-16: Northwest Illinois. Obama +8.9, white-hispanic-black 82-10-6. A mix of exurbs, small towns, and most of the Quad Cities.

IL-17: Central Northwest Illinois. Obama +5.8, white-black 87-7. Peoria as the largest city and the main source of Democrats.

IL-18: Central Northeast Illinois. Obama +5.5, white-hispanic-black 77-5-13. Drawn to include 3 cities in the south along with Bloomington to ensure Democrats are competitive, or at least unsafe for Republicans.

IL-19: Central West Illinois. Obama +0.9, white-black 89-7. Likely to remain in Republican hands even after the election, as Springfield is a fairly conservative city.

IL-20: East and Southeast Illinois. McCain +13.8, 94% white. Only district statewide to vote McCain.

IL-21: Southwest Illinois. Obama +13.8, white-black 75-19.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #23 on: August 19, 2020, 11:16:14 PM »

As an aside, today all the downstate Illinois districts you drew would be Safe R except the 21st. It is impressive how quickly this area has changed sides.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #24 on: August 19, 2020, 11:29:19 PM »

As an aside, today all the downstate Illinois districts you drew would be Safe R except the 21st. It is impressive how quickly this area has changed sides.

Even that would be likely R, since it looks pretty similar to the real IL-12. And honestly, I think Republicans would have held some of these suburban seats in real life 2008. Kirk or Bob could have won in the 9th, Roskam in the 10th, Biggert in the 11th, probably more in the 12th, 13th (Kinzinger?) and 14th. Not to mention Schock in the 17th, Johnson in the 18th, Shimkus in the 19th, and obviously a Republican (maybe Rodney?) in the 20th, with Bost flipping the 21st later.
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