Which states will Biden get under 30% and which states will Trump get under 30%

[mileslunn]

For Biden:  West Virginia and Wyoming most likely.  North Dakota I think is possible

For Trump:  Asides DC, he does have the potential to crack 30% in every state, but think he probably falls short in Vermont and Hawaii.  California, Massachusetts, New York, and Maryland outside possibilities but all 4 states have some sections that vote pretty heavily GOP and not likely to change while in large urban cores, Trump has rock bottom numbers so cannot go much lower.  So my guess is DC, Vermont, and Hawaii but wouldn't be surprised if DC only.

[mileslunn]

Now if we do under 40%, then a lot more.  As hard as it would be to believe today, Bush got under 40% in only 3 states in 2004: Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont.  I think though idea of GOP cracking 40% in California, Hawaii, New York, and Maryland seems pretty far fetched today.  If they had a moderate like Kasich then maybe, but not as long as party is Trump like.  In states like Illinois, New Jersey, Connecticut, Washington, or Oregon I could see it going either way.

For Biden, obviously he will get under 40% in several small largely rural states as Democrats always do.

However 30% is more significant as usually both parties get over that in almost all.  Obama in 2008 cracked 30% in every single state while Bush in 2004 got over it every state.  I am excluding DC which GOP will as usual get in single digits.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Biden: West Virginia and Wyoming.

Trump: Hawaii and Vermont.