Which state will be the closest state?
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  Which state will be the closest state?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: ^
#1
Texas		  
#2
Iowa		  
#3
Georgia		  
#4
Ohio		  
#5
Arizona		  
#6
North Carolina		  
#7
Florida		  
#8
Pennsylvania		  
#9
Wisconsin		  
#10
New Hamphire		  
#11
Michigan		  
#12
Nevada		  
#13
Minnesota		  
#14
other		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 112

Author Topic: Which state will be the closest state?  (Read 1815 times)
pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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« on: July 26, 2020, 10:32:41 PM »
^
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indietraveler
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« Reply #1 on: July 26, 2020, 10:35:52 PM »
Georgia
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #2 on: July 26, 2020, 10:44:51 PM »
Nebraska's 2nd district
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #3 on: July 26, 2020, 10:54:07 PM »
Closest electoral vote: maybe ME-02, if RCV doesn't make it weird.
Closest state: either TX or IA.
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: July 26, 2020, 11:03:35 PM »
I mean, a state.
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Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
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« Reply #5 on: July 26, 2020, 11:04:25 PM »
Georgia, then Texas, then North Carolina or NE-02.
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: July 26, 2020, 11:18:23 PM »
Who voted for Minnesota?

I seriously want to know.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: July 26, 2020, 11:23:01 PM »
TX
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DINGO Joe
dingojoe
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« Reply #8 on: July 26, 2020, 11:45:47 PM »
Montana or Kansas
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #9 on: July 26, 2020, 11:52:55 PM »
Arizona and Wisconsin.
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gerritcole
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« Reply #10 on: July 26, 2020, 11:56:09 PM »
WI
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #11 on: July 27, 2020, 02:40:30 AM »
Arizona
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #12 on: July 27, 2020, 02:41:34 AM »
Quote from: pppolitics on July 26, 2020, 11:18:23 PM
Who voted for Minnesota?

I seriously want to know.

I did the second vote just to trigger people for the lols, but I don't know who the first was
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S019
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« Reply #13 on: July 27, 2020, 02:45:44 AM »
Texas is my guess, but Ohio or Georgia are also plausible guesses
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #14 on: July 27, 2020, 10:18:49 AM »
Alaska, montana or south carolina. Maybe Texas or Ohio
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Never Made it to Graceland
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« Reply #15 on: July 27, 2020, 10:53:14 AM »
My money is on Florida.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #16 on: July 27, 2020, 11:36:46 AM »
Before I would have said Georgia or North Carolina.  Now that Trump is in as much trouble as he is, I’ll say Texas.
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Camaro33
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« Reply #17 on: July 27, 2020, 11:38:04 AM »
Voted Florida. I don't listen to the state polls here as Republicans almost always outperform them. Remember McCain only lost it by about 2 despite losing by ten million votes nationally. I also expect the national race to close over the next three months.
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Real Texan Politics
EEllis02
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« Reply #18 on: July 27, 2020, 01:40:21 PM »
« Edited: July 27, 2020, 02:24:03 PM by EEllis02 »
I'd say Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.

I have a bold prediction that Trump will win North Carolina by under 1,000 votes. Georgia by under 5,000, and Biden winning Arizona by a very similar margin to Trump's Michigan victory in 2016 (under 10,000 but greater than 5,000).
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Torrain
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« Reply #19 on: July 27, 2020, 03:22:30 PM »
History suggests that several states will have a margin under 1%, and the closest state often comes out of left field (see 2016), with a margin under 0.5%.

I'd say there are three options. If Biden is having a bad night, I'd say it's likely to be NH. If he's winning an Obama 2012-style victory it'll be somewhere like GA or AZ. If its a blowout, I'd say somewhere like SC, AK or MT.

I've included a list of the closest states in presidential elections going back to Carter, for reference:

2016 - Michigan, 0.23%
2012 - Florida, 0.88%
2008 - Missouri 0.13%
2004 - Wisconsin 0.38%
2000 - Florida, 0.0092%
1996 - Kentucky, 0.96%
1992 - Georgia – 0.59%
1988 - Washington, 1.59%
1984 - Minnesota, 0.18%
1980 - Massachusetts, 0.15% 
1976 - Oregon, 0.16%
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Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
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« Reply #20 on: July 27, 2020, 03:26:42 PM »
Alaska could surprise, I think.

Also, NE-02 will vote much further to the left than most predictions.
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Horus
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« Reply #21 on: July 27, 2020, 03:35:01 PM »
Minnesota.
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WD
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« Reply #22 on: July 27, 2020, 03:39:18 PM »
Ohio
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Storr
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« Reply #23 on: July 27, 2020, 03:48:03 PM »
Florida, Florida, Florida is always close, so I'll go with it.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #24 on: July 27, 2020, 04:32:27 PM »
If I had to guess I would say North Carolina as polls have stayed close and not a lot of swing voters there so probably a safe bet.  May very well be another state like Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, or Texas if Biden maintains his lead or if things tighten could easily be Arizona, Florida, Wisconsin and maybe even Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, or New Hampshire if real strong swing for Trump.  However North Carolina is probably the one state you can say with greatest certainty the gap will be under 5 points whomever wins it.
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