Barack Obama, when will he run?

[Lincoln Republican]

Since his election to the Senate in 2004, there has been much speculation that Barack Obama could be the first African American to run for President as the nominee of a major party.

If he does run, what year will that be?

What obstacles will he have to overcome for him to be electable as President?

Please discuss.

Thanks.

[Frodo]

Either 2012 or 2016 (maybe even 2020) would be highly likely.  I strongly prefer that he run in 2016 as by that time he would be completing his second term as Illinois senator if (and when) he decides to run for the Democratic presidential nomination, and that his lack of experience will then be less of an issue.

The most obvious obstacle to his ability to win the presidential election is that he is a senator.  Nothing else really comes to mind.  I am tempted to mention the generally negative response among liberal Democratic activists to his recent public support for Sen. Joe Lieberman's re-election campaign this year, but I strongly doubt that they will remember it when he decides to run.  He will have enormous cross-party potential if he continues the course he is currently on. 

[phk]

I like Barack and Joe.

Only problem is his last name, Obama, is easy to make fun of and thats what I fear.

[Gabu]

What obstacles will he have to overcome for him to be electable as President?

Being black is, sadly, probably a big one, at least for the foreseeable future.

[Boris]

Barack Obama will be the 45th or 46th President of the United States.

It really depends on 2008. If a Democrat wins 2008 and is re-elected in 2012, Obama will probably be chosen as the Vice Presidential Running mate for the Incumbent Vice President in 2016. Assuming that they win two terms, Vice President Obama will run in 2024. Or the 2008 Democratic Winner could be defeated in 2012, and Obama can run in 2016.

Odds are that a Democrat winning four elections in a row is very unlikely. My guess is that the Republicans will win 2008, and depending upon how things are, Obama will run in 2012 or 2016. If the Republican President is popular/doing a good job in 2012, Obama probably won't run and will challenge the Republican Vice President in 2016.

[dazzleman]

People love the idea of Barack Obama, because he's a black man (well, half black) who doesn't rely on the politics of resentment toward whites and society in general, the way most prominent black politicians do.

Beyond that, I have no idea whether or when he will run for president and, if he does, if he will get anywhere.

He has no real record in the senate yet, so I think it's highly premature to be talking about him for president.  If he were white, we wouldn't be.

He's very liberal, which could be a big obstacle.  There has not been a declared liberal elected president since 1964.  Maybe that will change, but right now, that is the situation.  That is probably his biggest obstacle.

[TeePee4Prez]

People love the idea of Barack Obama, because he's a black man (well, half black) who doesn't rely on the politics of resentment toward whites and society in general, the way most prominent black politicians do.

Beyond that, I have no idea whether or when he will run for president and, if he does, if he will get anywhere.

He has no real record in the senate yet, so I think it's highly premature to be talking about him for president.  If he were white, we wouldn't be.

He's very liberal, which could be a big obstacle.  There has not been a declared liberal elected president since 1964.  Maybe that will change, but right now, that is the situation.  That is probably his biggest obstacle.

You still have to realize Obama is an excellent orator and like you said doesn't rely on politics of racial resentment like Al Sharpton, Jesse Jackson, and now our favorite diva Cynthia McKinney.  This is why whites will gladly vote for him and I do think he will be President by 2020.

[© tweed]

2012 or 2016, depending on which party wins in 2008.

If somehow somebody like Biden or Kerry gets the nomination in 2008, he could get a VP nod.

[dazzleman]

People love the idea of Barack Obama, because he's a black man (well, half black) who doesn't rely on the politics of resentment toward whites and society in general, the way most prominent black politicians do.

Beyond that, I have no idea whether or when he will run for president and, if he does, if he will get anywhere.

He has no real record in the senate yet, so I think it's highly premature to be talking about him for president.  If he were white, we wouldn't be.

He's very liberal, which could be a big obstacle.  There has not been a declared liberal elected president since 1964.  Maybe that will change, but right now, that is the situation.  That is probably his biggest obstacle.

You still have to realize Obama is an excellent orator and like you said doesn't rely on politics of racial resentment like Al Sharpton, Jesse Jackson, and now our favorite diva Cynthia McKinney.  This is why whites will gladly vote for him and I do think he will be President by 2020.

That depends on what they think once they hear his political beliefs.  So far, few have.

In my experience, the people that everybody talks up before they know anything about them (and Obama is one of these people) usually go nowhere, because once the person becomes better known, the reality can never live up to the hype.   In that sense, all this inappropriatley early speculation about Obama being elected president really isn't a help to his prospects.  I suspect he knows this, and that's why he hasn't seemingly done anything to encourage the speculation.

This could be the exception of course.  We'll see.

[Speed of Sound]

Lack of experience will be his biggest problem, followed by his race, so Im going to say 2016 sounds about right.

[Ben.]

People love the idea of Barack Obama, because he's a black man (well, half black) who doesn't rely on the politics of resentment toward whites and society in general, the way most prominent black politicians do.

I think the “economist” got it right when they called him a “post racial politician”, he  (like Harold Ford, Lyn Swann or… who was the guy from Oklahoma?) doesn’t allow his race to define his politics like previous Black politicians. 

As to his appeal its pretty simple, he’s charismatic, photogenic and independently minded all while not seeming ideologically “abrasive”.  I would not say he’s “very” liberal, he is certainly liberal but no more so than say Kerry, Edwards et-al…

[Virginian87]

He will probably run in 2012 or 2016, depending on the party of the administration, but even if he was nominated, he wouldn't win.  Hate to say it, but I can't see America electing a minority candidate in the foreseeable future.

[dazzleman]

He will probably run in 2012 or 2016, depending on the party of the administration, but even if he was nominated, he wouldn't win.  Hate to say it, but I can't see America electing a minority candidate in the foreseeable future.

I tend to disagree.  I think a 'post-racial' minority candidate can probably be elected under the right circumstances.  I don't a Jackson/Sharpton type can be ever be elected, nor should anybody of that type be elected.

Obama should stand or fall on his personal qualities and political philosophy, not his skin color.  I would vote for a black candidate in a minute if he/she had the philsophy that I like.

There's still the issue of all the premature hype being detrimental.  I haven't really seen anybody address that yet.

[Alcon]

I actually think Obama has done a great job of not pandering too much to the Jackson/Sharpton business, without totally alienating the black community.

[© tweed]

I actually think Obama has done a great job of not pandering too much to the Jackson/Sharpton business, without totally alienating the black community.

Honestly, how can he?  Assume he's the Dem nominee in 2012, no matter what he does or says, is there any way he can fall below 90% of the black vote in a race against a white Republican?

[phk]

I actually think Obama has done a great job of not pandering too much to the Jackson/Sharpton business, without totally alienating the black community.

Many White Democrats have already done this feat.

[Alcon]

I actually think Obama has done a great job of not pandering too much to the Jackson/Sharpton business, without totally alienating the black community.

Honestly, how can he?  Assume he's the Dem nominee in 2012, no matter what he does or says, is there any way he can fall below 90% of the black vote in a race against a white Republican?

No, but the liberal base will not like hearing stories about it, even if he retains his black base.

[Phony Moderate]

Pretty funny thread.

[Vega]

I hate it when people bump these old threads.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I disagree.  I feel these old threats serve as important history lessons.  I especially love the comment on him being bidens or Kerry's vp or the one about the vp candidate of 08 and 12 running in 16 with obama as his vp

[Vega]

I disagree.  I feel these old threats serve as important history lessons.  I especially love the comment on him being bidens or Kerry's vp or the one about the vp candidate of 08 and 12 running in 16 with obama as his vp

True.

[Vosem]

If somehow...Biden...gets the nomination in 2008, [Obama] could get a VP nod.

Honestly, the thread is worth bumping just for this comment alone.

[Mr. Smith]

The real troll question now is? Will he decide to face Mark Kirk and retake his old seat?

[Libertarian Socialist Dem]

Thought for a sec that this was supposed to be a DBWI. (Double Blind What If for those of you not familiar with alternate history though i've already noticed some overlap between that community and this one.)

[Intell]

Interesting Article, Interesting to see, what people thought back then.