Why is downstate/Southern Illinois so conservative; should Dems compete?

[Suburbia]

Other than the rural tendencies, why is Southern Illinois "Little Egypt" is so conservative? Should Democrats compete there and campaign there constantly?

https://www.bnd.com/news/local/article226775829.html

https://www.chicagoreader.com/chicago/downstate-illinois-secession-history/Content?oid=34519694

[kcguy]

This isn't really an answer, but here's something interesting:  Cairo, Illinois, is 372 miles from Chicago, but it's only 179 miles from Southaven, Mississippi.

Also, there are pockets out-state where Democrats ARE competitive.  (This is particularly true in the Saint Louis suburbs, but Democrats also hold fairly compact state House seats based on Champaign, Peoria, the Quad Cities, and Rockford.  They also hold a seat in the Ottawa/Peru area, of which I'd be interested in hearing the history.)

[DINGO Joe]

Well, "Little Egypt" is a small part of downstate with a regional university and several small declining coal towns and river towns prone to severe flooding.  If you run for state office, you campaign here as you campaign everywhere, but there ain't nothing going on here.

[lfromnj]

This isn't really an answer, but here's something interesting:  Cairo, Illinois, is 372 miles from Chicago, but it's only 179 miles from Southaven, Mississippi.

Also, there are pockets out-state where Democrats ARE competitive.  (This is particularly true in the Saint Louis suburbs, but Democrats also hold fairly compact state House seats based on Champaign, Peoria, the Quad Cities, and Rockford.  They also hold a seat in the Ottawa/Peru area, of which I'd be interested in hearing the history.)

Outstate IL has basically 3 parts


Northern Illinois has been the heartland of Yankeedom for 150 years but starting in 1988 to 2012 they started moving back to the Democrats especially with a very impressive Obama 2008 win and Obama keeping most of his victories here in 2012(only area to trend D in Illinois). However they returned en masse back to Trump in 2016 besids Rock Island and Rockford. So its recent ancestry is Democratic but overall its ancestrally Republican.

Southern Illinois is a Dixiecratic area and also had a strong labor influence in the St louis suburbs.  However there were counties here that Gore won but Obama lost. Its a place where Duckworth managed to run 30 to 40 points ahead of Hillary but it has continued to trend to the right almost everywhere besides 1 or 2 towns in Madison and St clair county.

Central Illinois has always been GOP forever including especially the rurals. The only area with any serious D influence was Peoria and Decatur. Everywhere else was very Republican. However it also has  a lot of mid sized cities including the college towns of Champaign County and Mcclean County which are also very well educated of course. So Democrats are actually managing to make pretty strong gains in parts of central IL with Peoria and springfield being stagnant. Its mostly a wash due to the few rural gains made in the past few decades going back to to Trump.

[MarkD]

I live in Monroe County, which like its next-door neighbor Randolph County, is pretty conservative and Republican. Monroe and Randolph form the heart of House District 116, which also includes parts of St. Clair and Perry Counties. HD 116 is a pretty heavily Republican district, but it has been electing Democrats to Springfield for quite some time: Dan Reitz, followed by Jerry Costello II, followed by Dan Reitz's son Nathan Reitz. I'm not aware of who and what party preceded Dan Reitz, but I'd guess it was another Democrat.

So there's one area where Democrats ARE competitive in one of the heavily Republican districts of downstate/Southern Illinois. And I live right in it. I haven't decided yet who I will vote for.

[lfromnj]

I live in Monroe County, which like its next-door neighbor Randolph County, is pretty conservative and Republican. Monroe and Randolph form the heart of House District 116, which also includes parts of St. Clair and Perry County. HD 116 is a pretty heavily Republican district, but it has been electing Democrats to Springfield for quite some time: Dan Reitz, followed by Jerry Costello II, followed by Dan Reitz's son Nathan Reitz. I'm not aware of who and what party preceded Dan Reitz, but I'd guess it was another Democrat.

So there's one area where Democrats ARE competitive in one of the heavily Republican districts of downstate/Southern Illinois. And I live right in it. I haven't decided yet who I will vote for.

Monroe county is an aberration in the south too in that its growing. Its also quite rich(almost as rich as some of collar counties with much lower COL I assume)

[MarkD]

I live in Monroe County, which like its next-door neighbor Randolph County, is pretty conservative and Republican. Monroe and Randolph form the heart of House District 116, which also includes parts of St. Clair and Perry County. HD 116 is a pretty heavily Republican district, but it has been electing Democrats to Springfield for quite some time: Dan Reitz, followed by Jerry Costello II, followed by Dan Reitz's son Nathan Reitz. I'm not aware of who and what party preceded Dan Reitz, but I'd guess it was another Democrat.

So there's one area where Democrats ARE competitive in one of the heavily Republican districts of downstate/Southern Illinois. And I live right in it. I haven't decided yet who I will vote for.

Monroe county is an aberration in the south too in that its growing. Its also quite rich(almost as rich as some of collar counties with much lower COL I assume)

Guess what I just got in the mail? A political flyer for Nathan Reitz, the Democrat I mentioned above that was appointed to the state legislature about a year ago, currently represents me, and is running for election to a full term. What does the flyer say?

"Traditional, Small-Town Values"
"Nathan Reitz worked a union job at Baldwin Power Plant, so he knows a thing or two about Southern Illinois values. He also knows that those small town values are what we need to clean up the mess made by politicians in Chicago and Springfield."
"The Nathan Reitz Plan for Southern Illinois -- Reject Government Perks. Chicago politicians may be okay lining their pockets with taxpayer-funded perks, but not Nathan Reitz. He said 'no' to a government pension to keep more of your tax dollars here. He bucked his party to oppose the recent tax bill. And he put Southern Illinois values first by rejecting a pay raise while families in our community are forced to do more with less. Expand Job Training for High-Wage Jobs. Nathan knows that Southern Illinois families can handle any opportunity they get. That's why he is fighting to restore vocational education to our schools and provide job training in agriculture and the trades. Make Sure Our Schools Get Their Fair Share. For too long, Chicago schools have gotten more than their fair share of state funding while our schools are left behind. Nathan will put a stop to that. He worked across the aisle to provide $350 million in new funding for our schools and will never let them take a back seat to Chicago. Increase Resources for First Responders. Nathan supported additional resources for police officers and the tools they need to put criminals behind bars. He will never turn his back on the safety of our families, whether protecting our district from violent offenders or ensuring that all first responders have the resources they need."

Oh boy, this guy sure does sound like a conservadem running in a predominantly Republican district! He knows he can't campaign on a platform that contains any whiff of "progressive" values; he's got to talk like a Republican! He emphasized that he worked with Republicans on increased funding for Southern Illinois schools, and that he voted against his fellow Democrats on a "recent tax bill."

[lfromnj]

I live in Monroe County, which like its next-door neighbor Randolph County, is pretty conservative and Republican. Monroe and Randolph form the heart of House District 116, which also includes parts of St. Clair and Perry County. HD 116 is a pretty heavily Republican district, but it has been electing Democrats to Springfield for quite some time: Dan Reitz, followed by Jerry Costello II, followed by Dan Reitz's son Nathan Reitz. I'm not aware of who and what party preceded Dan Reitz, but I'd guess it was another Democrat.

So there's one area where Democrats ARE competitive in one of the heavily Republican districts of downstate/Southern Illinois. And I live right in it. I haven't decided yet who I will vote for.

Monroe county is an aberration in the south too in that its growing. Its also quite rich(almost as rich as some of collar counties with much lower COL I assume)

Guess what I just got in the mail? A political flyer for Nathan Reitz, the Democrat I mentioned above that was appointed to the state legislature about a year ago, currently represents me, and is running for election to a full term. What does the flyer say?

"Traditional, Small-Town Values"
"Nathan Reitz worked a union job at Baldwin Power Plant, so he knows a thing or two about Southern Illinois values. He also knows that those small town values are what we need to clean up the mess made by politicians in Chicago and Springfield."
"The Nathan Reitz Plan for Southern Illinois -- Reject Government Perks. Chicago politicians may be okay lining their pockets with taxpayer-funded perks, but not Nathan Reitz. He said 'no' to a government pension to keep more of your tax dollars here. He bucked his party to oppose the recent tax bill. And he put Southern Illinois values first by rejecting a pay raise while families in our community are forced to do more with less. Expand Job Training for High-Wage Jobs. Nathan knows that Southern Illinois families can handle any opportunity they get. That's why he is fighting to restore vocational education to our schools and provide job training in agriculture and the trades. Make Sure Our Schools Get Their Fair Share. For too long, Chicago schools have gotten more than their fair share of state funding while our schools are left behind. Nathan will put a stop to that. He worked across the aisle to provide $350 million in new funding for our schools and will never let them take a back seat to Chicago. Increase Resources for First Responders. Nathan supported additional resources for police officers and the tools they need to put criminals behind bars. He will never turn his back on the safety of our families, whether protecting our district from violent offenders or ensuring that all first responders have the resources they need."

Oh boy, this guy sure does sound like a conservadem running in a predominantly Republican district! He knows he can't campaign on a platform that contains any whiff of "progressive" values; he's got to talk like a Republican! He emphasized that he worked with Republicans on increased funding for Southern Illinois schools, and that he voted against his fellow Democrats on a "recent tax bill."

Isnt your district +40 Trump lol.

[Tamika Jackson]

Southern Illinois is bible belt territory.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Democrats have a lot of downstate/outstate places where they compete: Cairo, Carbondale, East St. Louis, Peoria, Rock Island-Moline, Champaign-Urbana, Rockford, Bloomington-Normal, Springfield, and others.

[MarkD]

I live in Monroe County, which like its next-door neighbor Randolph County, is pretty conservative and Republican. Monroe and Randolph form the heart of House District 116, which also includes parts of St. Clair and Perry County. HD 116 is a pretty heavily Republican district, but it has been electing Democrats to Springfield for quite some time: Dan Reitz, followed by Jerry Costello II, followed by Dan Reitz's son Nathan Reitz. I'm not aware of who and what party preceded Dan Reitz, but I'd guess it was another Democrat.

So there's one area where Democrats ARE competitive in one of the heavily Republican districts of downstate/Southern Illinois. And I live right in it. I haven't decided yet who I will vote for.

Monroe county is an aberration in the south too in that its growing. Its also quite rich(almost as rich as some of collar counties with much lower COL I assume)

Guess what I just got in the mail? A political flyer for Nathan Reitz, the Democrat I mentioned above that was appointed to the state legislature about a year ago, currently represents me, and is running for election to a full term. What does the flyer say?

"Traditional, Small-Town Values"
"Nathan Reitz worked a union job at Baldwin Power Plant, so he knows a thing or two about Southern Illinois values. He also knows that those small town values are what we need to clean up the mess made by politicians in Chicago and Springfield."
"The Nathan Reitz Plan for Southern Illinois -- Reject Government Perks. Chicago politicians may be okay lining their pockets with taxpayer-funded perks, but not Nathan Reitz. He said 'no' to a government pension to keep more of your tax dollars here. He bucked his party to oppose the recent tax bill. And he put Southern Illinois values first by rejecting a pay raise while families in our community are forced to do more with less. Expand Job Training for High-Wage Jobs. Nathan knows that Southern Illinois families can handle any opportunity they get. That's why he is fighting to restore vocational education to our schools and provide job training in agriculture and the trades. Make Sure Our Schools Get Their Fair Share. For too long, Chicago schools have gotten more than their fair share of state funding while our schools are left behind. Nathan will put a stop to that. He worked across the aisle to provide $350 million in new funding for our schools and will never let them take a back seat to Chicago. Increase Resources for First Responders. Nathan supported additional resources for police officers and the tools they need to put criminals behind bars. He will never turn his back on the safety of our families, whether protecting our district from violent offenders or ensuring that all first responders have the resources they need."

Oh boy, this guy sure does sound like a conservadem running in a predominantly Republican district! He knows he can't campaign on a platform that contains any whiff of "progressive" values; he's got to talk like a Republican! He emphasized that he worked with Republicans on increased funding for Southern Illinois schools, and that he voted against his fellow Democrats on a "recent tax bill."

Isnt your district +40 Trump lol.

Almost but not quite. Illinois HD 116 voted approximately 66.2% for Trump to approximately 29.3% for Clinton. I can't give you precise figures because of a few split precincts in St. Clair County, and because Perry County's website does not break down the vote into precincts at all, so all I can do with that whole county is estimate the percentage of the vote split between HD 115 and HD 116.
As I was calculating the vote in St. Clair County, I readily noticed that Centerville Township voted heavily for Clinton, but all of the rest of the St. Clair County precincts voted heavily for Trump.

Anyway, so in answer to the second question in the OP, a Democrat IS competing in HD 116, where I live, by campaigning as if he is virtually a Republican. We'll see this November if Nathan Reitz wins, and I think it likely he will, given this district's track record for over 20 years, that it's a successful strategy.

[lfromnj]

I live in Monroe County, which like its next-door neighbor Randolph County, is pretty conservative and Republican. Monroe and Randolph form the heart of House District 116, which also includes parts of St. Clair and Perry County. HD 116 is a pretty heavily Republican district, but it has been electing Democrats to Springfield for quite some time: Dan Reitz, followed by Jerry Costello II, followed by Dan Reitz's son Nathan Reitz. I'm not aware of who and what party preceded Dan Reitz, but I'd guess it was another Democrat.

So there's one area where Democrats ARE competitive in one of the heavily Republican districts of downstate/Southern Illinois. And I live right in it. I haven't decided yet who I will vote for.

Monroe county is an aberration in the south too in that its growing. Its also quite rich(almost as rich as some of collar counties with much lower COL I assume)

Guess what I just got in the mail? A political flyer for Nathan Reitz, the Democrat I mentioned above that was appointed to the state legislature about a year ago, currently represents me, and is running for election to a full term. What does the flyer say?

"Traditional, Small-Town Values"
"Nathan Reitz worked a union job at Baldwin Power Plant, so he knows a thing or two about Southern Illinois values. He also knows that those small town values are what we need to clean up the mess made by politicians in Chicago and Springfield."
"The Nathan Reitz Plan for Southern Illinois -- Reject Government Perks. Chicago politicians may be okay lining their pockets with taxpayer-funded perks, but not Nathan Reitz. He said 'no' to a government pension to keep more of your tax dollars here. He bucked his party to oppose the recent tax bill. And he put Southern Illinois values first by rejecting a pay raise while families in our community are forced to do more with less. Expand Job Training for High-Wage Jobs. Nathan knows that Southern Illinois families can handle any opportunity they get. That's why he is fighting to restore vocational education to our schools and provide job training in agriculture and the trades. Make Sure Our Schools Get Their Fair Share. For too long, Chicago schools have gotten more than their fair share of state funding while our schools are left behind. Nathan will put a stop to that. He worked across the aisle to provide $350 million in new funding for our schools and will never let them take a back seat to Chicago. Increase Resources for First Responders. Nathan supported additional resources for police officers and the tools they need to put criminals behind bars. He will never turn his back on the safety of our families, whether protecting our district from violent offenders or ensuring that all first responders have the resources they need."

Oh boy, this guy sure does sound like a conservadem running in a predominantly Republican district! He knows he can't campaign on a platform that contains any whiff of "progressive" values; he's got to talk like a Republican! He emphasized that he worked with Republicans on increased funding for Southern Illinois schools, and that he voted against his fellow Democrats on a "recent tax bill."

Isnt your district +40 Trump lol.

Almost but not quite. Illinois HD 116 voted approximately 66.2% for Trump to approximately 29.3% for Clinton. I can't give you precise figures because of a few split precincts in St. Clair County, and because Perry County's website does not break down the vote into precincts at all, so all I can do with that whole county is estimate the percentage of the vote split between HD 115 and HD 116.
As I was calculating the vote in St. Clair County, I readily noticed that Centerville Township voted heavily for Clinton, but all of the rest of the St. Clair County precincts voted heavily for Trump.

Anyway, so in answer to the second question in the OP, a Democrat IS competing in HD 116, where I live, by campaigning as if he is virtually a Republican. We'll see this November if Nathan Reitz wins, and I think it likely he will, given this district's track record for over 20 years, that it's a successful strategy.

Not sure
118 just flipped in 2018 by 10 points with a similar strategy. Also DRA now has the state house and state senate maps and congressional maps for all states uploaded

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::8b9ccb4c-d702-433d-9cbd-1e898d521eab

I don't think your district has centreville?. It has Cahokia which is just as blue however. Madigan of course didn't waste the VRA seat by putting redder suburbs with it.

One question I have though is why didn't Madigan try to make a swing seat in Bloomington normal? Instead he cut the city into 3 districts which doesn't make sense as that area is ancestrally Republican and hard for Ds to win. Infact none of the 3 seats voted for Obama in 2008.

[MarkD]

Wow. The incumbent Democrat lost by a landslide. He only got 35% of the vote. The voters of HD 116 finally voted a straight Republican ticket.

[Roll Roons]

Wow. The incumbent Democrat lost by a landslide. He only got 35% of the vote. The voters of HD 116 finally voted a straight Republican ticket.

Ouch. This cycle was f**king brutal for Dem state legislators in rural districts. Vince Sheheen, the two-time gubernatorial nominee against Nikki Haley, lost his State Senate seat in SC. So did Bob Trammell, the State House minority leader in GA. And WV Republicans netted 18 (!) seats in the State House. I really do wonder what it would take for Democrats to be competitive in these areas going forward, or if there'll be some reversion to the mean with Trump no longer on the ballot.

[Suburbia]

It's political realignments.

Affluent suburban Republicans like Barbara Comstock loses in suburban NOVA and blue collar Democrats like Mark Pryor in Arkansas and Nathan Reitz in downstate Illinois loses.

[freepcrusher]

Wow. The incumbent Democrat lost by a landslide. He only got 35% of the vote. The voters of HD 116 finally voted a straight Republican ticket.

Ouch. This cycle was f**king brutal for Dem state legislators in rural districts. Vince Sheheen, the two-time gubernatorial nominee against Nikki Haley, lost his State Senate seat in SC. So did Bob Trammell, the State House minority leader in GA. And WV Republicans netted 18 (!) seats in the State House. I really do wonder what it would take for Democrats to be competitive in these areas going forward, or if there'll be some reversion to the mean with Trump no longer on the ballot.

as cold as this sounds - what's to say it's not bloodletting. I'm kind of surprised we didn't already lose those seats during the obama years. Maybe the good news is that under a biden/harris presidency - there won't be any more crowing about all the state legislative seats lost under biden/harris like there was under obama. When BHO was president - they lost something like 1000 state legislative seats.

[RINO Tom]

Wow. The incumbent Democrat lost by a landslide. He only got 35% of the vote. The voters of HD 116 finally voted a straight Republican ticket.

Ouch. This cycle was f**king brutal for Dem state legislators in rural districts. Vince Sheheen, the two-time gubernatorial nominee against Nikki Haley, lost his State Senate seat in SC. So did Bob Trammell, the State House minority leader in GA. And WV Republicans netted 18 (!) seats in the State House. I really do wonder what it would take for Democrats to be competitive in these areas going forward, or if there'll be some reversion to the mean with Trump no longer on the ballot.

as cold as this sounds - what's to say it's not bloodletting. I'm kind of surprised we didn't already lose those seats during the obama years. Maybe the good news is that under a biden/harris presidency - there won't be any more crowing about all the state legislative seats lost under biden/harris like there was under obama. When BHO was president - they lost something like 1000 state legislative seats.

It’s just simply NOT an inevitability that they had to...

[freepcrusher]

Wow. The incumbent Democrat lost by a landslide. He only got 35% of the vote. The voters of HD 116 finally voted a straight Republican ticket.

Ouch. This cycle was f**king brutal for Dem state legislators in rural districts. Vince Sheheen, the two-time gubernatorial nominee against Nikki Haley, lost his State Senate seat in SC. So did Bob Trammell, the State House minority leader in GA. And WV Republicans netted 18 (!) seats in the State House. I really do wonder what it would take for Democrats to be competitive in these areas going forward, or if there'll be some reversion to the mean with Trump no longer on the ballot.

as cold as this sounds - what's to say it's not bloodletting. I'm kind of surprised we didn't already lose those seats during the obama years. Maybe the good news is that under a biden/harris presidency - there won't be any more crowing about all the state legislative seats lost under biden/harris like there was under obama. When BHO was president - they lost something like 1000 state legislative seats.

It’s just simply NOT an inevitability that they had to...

I'm kind of losing patience with a lot of the country and feel like a lot of those obama era losses (particularly in 2010) was gangrene.

[Alcibiades]

Wow. The incumbent Democrat lost by a landslide. He only got 35% of the vote. The voters of HD 116 finally voted a straight Republican ticket.

Ouch. This cycle was f**king brutal for Dem state legislators in rural districts. Vince Sheheen, the two-time gubernatorial nominee against Nikki Haley, lost his State Senate seat in SC. So did Bob Trammell, the State House minority leader in GA. And WV Republicans netted 18 (!) seats in the State House. I really do wonder what it would take for Democrats to be competitive in these areas going forward, or if there'll be some reversion to the mean with Trump no longer on the ballot.

It’s so very sad that someone like Sheheen lost, not just in the way that a lot of red avatars here feel a sadness at seeing the last vestiges of the Southern ancestral Democrats slip away. It’s such a shame because Sheheen, an independent-minded, pragmatic legislator who got things done for his state and district and carried himself with grace and dignity, is going to be replaced by some generic ideologically extreme Southern R who is not going to do one-tenth as much for their constituents, or provide them with a distinctive voice, instead joining the hivemind and probably spending a large amount of their time on right-wing virtue-signalling on social issues. This is the story across the nation in such districts.

[Roll Roons]

Wow. The incumbent Democrat lost by a landslide. He only got 35% of the vote. The voters of HD 116 finally voted a straight Republican ticket.

Ouch. This cycle was f**king brutal for Dem state legislators in rural districts. Vince Sheheen, the two-time gubernatorial nominee against Nikki Haley, lost his State Senate seat in SC. So did Bob Trammell, the State House minority leader in GA. And WV Republicans netted 18 (!) seats in the State House. I really do wonder what it would take for Democrats to be competitive in these areas going forward, or if there'll be some reversion to the mean with Trump no longer on the ballot.

It’s so very sad that someone like Sheheen lost, not just in the way that a lot of red avatars here feel a sadness at seeing the last vestiges of the Southern ancestral Democrats slip away. It’s such a shame because Sheheen, an independent-minded, pragmatic legislator who got things done for his state and district and carried himself with grace and dignity, is going to be replaced by some generic ideologically extreme Southern R who is not going to do one-tenth as much for their constituents, or provide them with a distinctive voice, instead joining the hivemind and probably spending a large amount of their time on right-wing virtue-signalling on social issues. This is the story across the nation in such districts.

Honestly, I kind of agree with you. Both parties should be able to legitimately compete and have a chance of winning in hostile areas. Base-only politics is terrible.

[RINO Tom]

Wow. The incumbent Democrat lost by a landslide. He only got 35% of the vote. The voters of HD 116 finally voted a straight Republican ticket.

Ouch. This cycle was f**king brutal for Dem state legislators in rural districts. Vince Sheheen, the two-time gubernatorial nominee against Nikki Haley, lost his State Senate seat in SC. So did Bob Trammell, the State House minority leader in GA. And WV Republicans netted 18 (!) seats in the State House. I really do wonder what it would take for Democrats to be competitive in these areas going forward, or if there'll be some reversion to the mean with Trump no longer on the ballot.

It’s so very sad that someone like Sheheen lost, not just in the way that a lot of red avatars here feel a sadness at seeing the last vestiges of the Southern ancestral Democrats slip away. It’s such a shame because Sheheen, an independent-minded, pragmatic legislator who got things done for his state and district and carried himself with grace and dignity, is going to be replaced by some generic ideologically extreme Southern R who is not going to do one-tenth as much for their constituents, or provide them with a distinctive voice, instead joining the hivemind and probably spending a large amount of their time on right-wing virtue-signalling on social issues. This is the story across the nation in such districts.

For every red avatar that feels this way, there seems to be another who practically gets off on dispelling of these voters from their ranks.

[Alcibiades]

Wow. The incumbent Democrat lost by a landslide. He only got 35% of the vote. The voters of HD 116 finally voted a straight Republican ticket.

Ouch. This cycle was f**king brutal for Dem state legislators in rural districts. Vince Sheheen, the two-time gubernatorial nominee against Nikki Haley, lost his State Senate seat in SC. So did Bob Trammell, the State House minority leader in GA. And WV Republicans netted 18 (!) seats in the State House. I really do wonder what it would take for Democrats to be competitive in these areas going forward, or if there'll be some reversion to the mean with Trump no longer on the ballot.

It’s so very sad that someone like Sheheen lost, not just in the way that a lot of red avatars here feel a sadness at seeing the last vestiges of the Southern ancestral Democrats slip away. It’s such a shame because Sheheen, an independent-minded, pragmatic legislator who got things done for his state and district and carried himself with grace and dignity, is going to be replaced by some generic ideologically extreme Southern R who is not going to do one-tenth as much for their constituents, or provide them with a distinctive voice, instead joining the hivemind and probably spending a large amount of their time on right-wing virtue-signalling on social issues. This is the story across the nation in such districts.

Honestly, I kind of agree with you. Both parties should be able to legitimately compete and have a chance of winning in hostile areas. Base-only politics is terrible.

Absolutely. In what I might term the ‘Golden Age’ of depolarisation, c.1970-1990, there was scarcely anywhere in the US that was not winnable for both parties at some level of government. Realistically, at the state legislative level, where representatives’ jobs revolve around oft-mundane practicalities rather than grand ideological visions, candidates’ legislative skills and commitment to their community ought to matter more than their ideology.

[mileslunn]

Downstate Illinois is very rural so with urban/rural divide main thing no surprise.  Same reason Eastern Washington goes GOP despite being in a very blue state or upstate New York is a swing area not solid blue like state as whole.  Downstate lacks any large metro area that would go heavily GOP.  Democrats still win in St. Clair County which is part of St. Louis metro area while places like Peoria and Sangamon counties are more comparable to Winnebago county in north than Chicagoland ones.  And those three are quite competitive with city proper usually voting Democrat, but suburbs and rural going GOP. 

Never mind geographically the southern part is in the northern part of Bible belt too.  If you look at map. Southern Illinois is similar to Missouri and Virginia so more borderline area between South and North.  Virginia is Democrat today largely due to growth of NOVA which downstate Illinois lacks equivalent of.

[Suburbia]

Downstate Illinois is very rural so with urban/rural divide main thing no surprise.  Same reason Eastern Washington goes GOP despite being in a very blue state or upstate New York is a swing area not solid blue like state as whole.  Downstate lacks any large metro area that would go heavily GOP.  Democrats still win in St. Clair County which is part of St. Louis metro area while places like Peoria and Sangamon counties are more comparable to Winnebago county in north than Chicagoland ones.  And those three are quite competitive with city proper usually voting Democrat, but suburbs and rural going GOP. 

Never mind geographically the southern part is in the northern part of Bible belt too.  If you look at map. Southern Illinois is similar to Missouri and Virginia so more borderline area between South and North.  Virginia is Democrat today largely due to growth of NOVA which downstate Illinois lacks equivalent of.

Dems need to distance from Madigan.