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Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Your rating
#1
Safe R		  
#2
Likely R		  
#3
Lean R		  
#4
Tilt R		  
#5
Toss up		  
#6
Tilt D		  
#7
Lean D		  
#8
Likely D		  
#9
Safe D		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 48

Author Topic: Rate CA-25  (Read 820 times)
Woody
SirWoodbury
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,126


Political Matrix
E: 1.48, S: 1.30

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« on: July 24, 2020, 01:34:25 PM »
?
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Greedo punched first
ERM64man
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« Reply #1 on: July 24, 2020, 01:51:23 PM »
Tilt D.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 30,283
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

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« Reply #2 on: July 24, 2020, 02:29:46 PM »
Lean D, though if the environment doesn’t get better for Republicans, closer to Likely than Toss-Up.
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SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
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United States


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« Reply #3 on: July 24, 2020, 02:36:39 PM »
Lean R. Christy Smith is a horrible campaigner.
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jeron
Jr. Member
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Posts: 663
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

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« Reply #4 on: July 24, 2020, 03:01:16 PM »
Tilt R
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

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« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2020, 06:21:03 PM »
tilt d smith 51-49
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morgieb
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 9,636
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

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« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2020, 06:28:15 PM »
Tilt D. I have a difficult time believing the Reps can hold on a seat Hillary won by 9 points, but the margin was big enough that it's far from a done deal.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: July 24, 2020, 09:19:17 PM »
Tilt R. Smith is Coakley-level bad and it'll be hard to convince the district that the balance of the house is in their hands. Dems have virtually no chance of losing the House, which means district voters will feel okay with ticket-splitting.
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UWS
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: July 24, 2020, 10:04:56 PM »
« Edited: July 24, 2020, 10:10:53 PM by UWS »
Lean R. Smith is a horrible campaigner, especially when she mocked Garcia's military service. So insolent.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOCA96ElS5w
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #9 on: July 24, 2020, 10:34:26 PM »
Lean R.

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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #10 on: July 24, 2020, 10:38:51 PM »
I think Smith ekes it out this year. Garcia probably takes it back in 2022 if Biden wins, though. It'll be hard to get hispanic voters to turn out in a Biden midterm, and Garcia seems like Valadao 2.0 with his crossover appeal.
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S019
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Ukraine


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E: -4.13, S: -1.39

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« Reply #11 on: July 24, 2020, 10:58:11 PM »
Likely D, Garcia is DOA and Biden is winning this seat by double digits probably. Garcia is the most vulnerable incumbent Representative this year. Republicans have a better chance at holding GA-07 than Garcia hanging on, and honestly it's very possible that he loses by double digits, the NRCC would be wise to triage him, he has about as much of a chance as Barbara Comstock or Erik Paulsen had in 2018.
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W
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,297
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.71, S: -8.61

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« Reply #12 on: July 25, 2020, 12:07:33 AM »
Tilt R for now. I mean Garcia won it by 10 points. Turnout will be higher in November however I'm just not totally sure that ticket-splitting isn't gonna be a thing here.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,084


Political Matrix
E: -6.65, S: -8.26

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« Reply #13 on: July 25, 2020, 02:33:58 AM »
« Edited: July 25, 2020, 11:58:31 AM by Ted Bessell »
Lean D, verging on Likely. People are looking at the margin and wetting their pants when the special had 30% turnout and an ultra-old, ultra-rich, ultra-white electorate

EDIT: 41% turnout. Point stands
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