PPP: Gideon +5 in ME, Cunningham +8 in NC, Kelly +9 in AZ.
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  PPP: Gideon +5 in ME, Cunningham +8 in NC, Kelly +9 in AZ.
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Author Topic: PPP: Gideon +5 in ME, Cunningham +8 in NC, Kelly +9 in AZ.  (Read 2085 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« on: July 24, 2020, 12:00:47 PM »

Maine-

Gideon: 47%
Collins: 42%

North Carolina-

Cunningham: 48%
Tillis: 40%

Arizona-

Kelly: 51%
McSally: 42%

https://front.moveon.org/new-polls-unidentified-federal-police/

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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: July 24, 2020, 12:05:09 PM »

Really says a lot about the NRSC that AZ hasnít been triaged yet to shift resources to races which are actually winnable/likely tipping-point races (ME/MT/NC/GA-R), especially since that seat will be up again in 2022.
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PHARAOH BAKARI SELLERS
olawakandi
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« Reply #2 on: July 24, 2020, 12:06:50 PM »

Senate is ours AZ, CO, IA. ME and NC and we still have AK, GA, KS, MT and TX, D can get up to 10 seats
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #3 on: July 24, 2020, 12:12:36 PM »

Arizona is just a money pit for Republicans at this point.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #4 on: July 24, 2020, 12:16:38 PM »

Maine is looking like the 50th seat. Montana, Georgia, Kansas w/Kobach and possibly Iowa arenít far behind either.
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Gracile
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« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2020, 12:20:26 PM »

Again, it would be useful if pollsters asked about independent candidates in ME-SEN and find out their second choices via RCV.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2020, 12:24:43 PM »

Maine is looking like the 50th seat. Montana, Georgia, Kansas w/Kobach and possibly Iowa arenít far behind either.

Yeah. How I see it now:
47. CO
48. AZ
49. NC
50. ME 
51. MT
52. GA regular
53. IA
54. GA special
55. KS
56. TX
57. AK
58. AL
59. SC
60. MS
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #7 on: July 24, 2020, 12:25:33 PM »

ITSHAPPENINGRONPAUL.gif
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #8 on: July 24, 2020, 12:34:07 PM »

Maine is looking like the 50th seat. Montana, Georgia, Kansas w/Kobach and possibly Iowa arenít far behind either.

Yeah. How I see it now:
47. CO
48. AZ
49. NC
50. ME 
51. MT
52. GA regular
53. IA
54. GA special
55. KS
56. TX
57. AK
58. AL
59. SC
60. MS

Yup. Kansas goes to 51 if Kobach is the nominee
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #9 on: July 24, 2020, 12:41:04 PM »
« Edited: July 24, 2020, 01:27:18 PM by MT Treasurer »

Maine is looking like the 50th seat. Montana, Georgia, Kansas w/Kobach and possibly Iowa arenít far behind either.

Yeah. How I see it now:
47. CO
48. AZ
49. NC
50. ME  
51. MT
52. GA regular
53. IA
54. GA special
55. KS
56. TX
57. AK
58. AL
59. SC
60. MS

Very good rankings IMO. I wouldnít rule out MT/GA flipping before ME, KS flipping before IA (with Kobach), or a surprisingly good result for the GOP in the GA-S runoff (a weird outcome like Jones surviving by the skin of his teeth and Collins narrowly winning the runoff canít be entirely ruled out, Iíd say, unless all the other Democrats in that race drop out), but this is pretty much how I would rank them as well.
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: July 24, 2020, 12:42:36 PM »

Even given that PPP sometimes has a D bias, terrible polls for the Republicans. Itís really looking like Democrats are (narrowly) favored to win the Senate, since Republicans will need some luck or a change in the environment for Republicans to hold three of GA/ME/MT/NC. And if theyíre losing IA, theyíre probably not taking back the Senate until at least 2024.
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olawakandi
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« Reply #11 on: July 24, 2020, 12:45:45 PM »

Even given that PPP sometimes has a D bias, terrible polls for the Republicans. Itís really looking like Democrats are (narrowly) favored to win the Senate, since Republicans will need some luck or a change in the environment for Republicans to hold three of GA/ME/MT/NC. And if theyíre losing IA, theyíre probably not taking back the Senate until at least 2024.

Ds have chances in SC, MT, KS, AK and TX too as well as GA goes to runoffa
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #12 on: July 24, 2020, 12:46:14 PM »

Everyone enjoys pointing out how much McSally sucks of course, but Tillisís consistently pathetic performances seem to be going under the radar. Heís an actual elected incumbent and heís losing every poll to a generic Democrat no oneís ever heard of, and running way behind the top of the ticket too.
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WD
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« Reply #13 on: July 24, 2020, 12:46:48 PM »

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S019
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« Reply #14 on: July 24, 2020, 01:04:09 PM »

Whatís interesting to me is that in both AZ and NC, you have challengers nearing 50 or above 50 in most polls, and incumbents mired in the low to mid 40ís. In Maine, you have an incumbent stuck in the low 40ís and a challenger in the mid 40ís consistently, what this suggests to me is that either Maineís undecideds are more likely to break for Republicans than those in Arizona or North Carolina or that Republicans still have a legitimate chance to win Maine. Iím leaving Maine at tossup, but strongly considering moving NC to Lean D in light of recent polling. So, Collins is currently probably an underdog, but her path is much more doable than that of Tillis or McSally.
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VAR
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« Reply #15 on: July 24, 2020, 01:26:08 PM »

The Maine poll has really oversampled Democrats and undersampled Independents. Hereís the exit poll data:

                         D:         I:          R:
2008 exit poll      35%      39%      26%
2014 exit poll      30%      40%      30%
2016 exit poll      31%      39%      30%
PPP                     38%      33%      29%

Independents never dropped below 39%, which says a lot. Also, a Maine poll from February had Indies at 42%. The discrepancy is just crazy.

Yeah. How I see it now:
47. CO
48. AZ
49. NC
50. ME  
51. MT
52. GA regular
53. IA
54. GA special
55. KS
56. TX
57. AK
58. AL
59. SC
60. MS

Perdue is more vulnerable than you think, and I think partisanship will screw Bullock, but itíll be very close regardless. As for Maine, I just refuse to believe this sketchy poll.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #16 on: July 24, 2020, 01:31:54 PM »

The Maine poll has really oversampled Democrats and undersampled Independents. Hereís the exit poll data:

                         D:         I:          R:
2008 exit poll      35%      39%      26%
2014 exit poll      30%      40%      30%
2016 exit poll      31%      39%      30%
PPP                     38%      33%      29%

Independents never dropped below 39%, which says a lot. Also, a Maine poll from February had Indies at 42%. The discrepancy is just crazy.

Yeah. How I see it now:
47. CO
48. AZ
49. NC
50. ME  
51. MT
52. GA regular
53. IA
54. GA special
55. KS
56. TX
57. AK
58. AL
59. SC
60. MS

Perdue is more vulnerable than you think, and I think partisanship will screw Bullock, but itíll be very close regardless. As for Maine, I just refuse to believe this sketchy poll.

Montana has a history of defying presidential partisanship, and a popular sitting governor is the strongest possible recruit for a Senate race. I still have Perdue's seat as the next to flip.
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PHARAOH BAKARI SELLERS
olawakandi
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« Reply #17 on: July 24, 2020, 01:41:05 PM »

We need a PPP for KS, MT and TX Senate
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #18 on: July 24, 2020, 01:56:26 PM »

Perdue is more vulnerable than you think, and I think partisanship will screw Bullock, but itíll be very close regardless. As for Maine, I just refuse to believe this sketchy poll.

Here we go again. Alright, Iím still waiting for "polarization" to kick in and that supposed "partisanship" to cause Bullock's numbers to collapse. Can you let me in on when it will happen?  

On this occasion...

Do you think itís a coincidence that Daines has barely (if at all) been polling better than Matt Rosendale's result in 2018 ever since Democrats decided to go all in on the race? Do you think Steve Bullock just had no idea what he was doing when he entered the race given that itís apparently such an uphill battle? Do you think thereís a reason MT Republicans have pretty much never won a race when there were two competing sets of pre-election polls (one showing Republicans ahead in most surveys, the other showing narrow but consistent leads for Democrats)? Do you think "partisanship" was why Rick Scott won the FL Senate race in 2018 in a Democratic wave environment (you know, in that Titanium Tilt R state where Biden holds a commanding lead right now)? Do you think itís a coincidence that the MDP has won so many close/competitive elections and the MTGOP's successes can be counted on one hand?
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #19 on: July 24, 2020, 04:47:26 PM »

I think of these three results, the one in North Carolina is the one that should worry me if I'm in a Republican strategist. The undecideds in Maine likely either will break for Collins, or have her as their second choice in an RCV vote, McSally's pretty much done, and I'd consider triaging that seat...but Tillis was supposed to be a strong incumbent, especially against a virtual unknown like Cal Cunningham. That race seems eerily similar to the Senate race in 2008.
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Yoda
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« Reply #20 on: July 26, 2020, 04:14:12 AM »

Cunningham's lead being almost as big as Mark Kelly's is giving me all the feels right now.
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PHARAOH BAKARI SELLERS
olawakandi
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« Reply #21 on: July 26, 2020, 05:02:39 AM »

Perdue is more vulnerable than you think, and I think partisanship will screw Bullock, but itíll be very close regardless. As for Maine, I just refuse to believe this sketchy poll.

Here we go again. Alright, Iím still waiting for "polarization" to kick in and that supposed "partisanship" to cause Bullock's numbers to collapse. Can you let me in on when it will happen?  

On this occasion...

Do you think itís a coincidence that Daines has barely (if at all) been polling better than Matt Rosendale's result in 2018 ever since Democrats decided to go all in on the race? Do you think Steve Bullock just had no idea what he was doing when he entered the race given that itís apparently such an uphill battle? Do you think thereís a reason MT Republicans have pretty much never won a race when there were two competing sets of pre-election polls (one showing Republicans ahead in most surveys, the other showing narrow but consistent leads for Democrats)? Do you think "partisanship" was why Rick Scott won the FL Senate race in 2018 in a Democratic wave environment (you know, in that Titanium Tilt R state where Biden holds a commanding lead right now)? Do you think itís a coincidence that the MDP has won so many close/competitive elections and the MTGOP's successes can be counted on one hand?

Bullock got into the race before Covid 19 hit, and so did Kennedy and Bollier, all of their fundraising were hitting records. Then, Covidc19 hit and donors started donating to the races that mattered more, AZ, CO, ME, NC and Biden's.  When, working poor were hit hard by hard times and middle class donated to the necessary races. Thats why Pelosi ad was pulled from Facebook,  asking for donations,  and that never happened during the campaign .

Now, MT, KS has slipped to 2nd tier battlegrounds and Markey is kneck and kneck with Kennedy
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jdk
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« Reply #22 on: July 26, 2020, 01:01:24 PM »

Again, it would be useful if pollsters asked about independent candidates in ME-SEN and find out their second choices via RCV.
Imagine the sh**tstorm by Republicans if Susan Collins wins the first round but loses because of second choice votes, and it winds up tilting control of the senate
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #23 on: July 26, 2020, 05:31:58 PM »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2020-07-23

Summary: D: 48%, R: 40%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #24 on: July 26, 2020, 05:32:03 PM »

New Poll: Maine Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2020-07-22

Summary: D: 47%, R: 42%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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