PPP: Gideon +5 in ME, Cunningham +8 in NC, Kelly +9 in AZ.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Maine-

Gideon: 47%
Collins: 42%

North Carolina-

Cunningham: 48%
Tillis: 40%

Arizona-

Kelly: 51%
McSally: 42%

https://front.moveon.org/new-polls-unidentified-federal-police/

[MT Treasurer]

Really says a lot about the NRSC that AZ hasn’t been triaged yet to shift resources to races which are actually winnable/likely tipping-point races (ME/MT/NC/GA-R), especially since that seat will be up again in 2022.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Senate is ours AZ, CO, IA. ME and NC and we still have AK, GA, KS, MT and TX, D can get up to 10 seats

[TarHeelDem]

Arizona is just a money pit for Republicans at this point.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Maine is looking like the 50th seat. Montana, Georgia, Kansas w/Kobach and possibly Iowa aren’t far behind either.

[Gracile]

Again, it would be useful if pollsters asked about independent candidates in ME-SEN and find out their second choices via RCV.

[Roll Roons]

Maine is looking like the 50th seat. Montana, Georgia, Kansas w/Kobach and possibly Iowa aren’t far behind either.

Yeah. How I see it now:
47. CO
48. AZ
49. NC
50. ME 
51. MT
52. GA regular
53. IA
54. GA special
55. KS
56. TX
57. AK
58. AL
59. SC
60. MS

[brucejoel99]

ITSHAPPENINGRONPAUL.gif

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Maine is looking like the 50th seat. Montana, Georgia, Kansas w/Kobach and possibly Iowa aren’t far behind either.

Yeah. How I see it now:
47. CO
48. AZ
49. NC
50. ME 
51. MT
52. GA regular
53. IA
54. GA special
55. KS
56. TX
57. AK
58. AL
59. SC
60. MS

Yup. Kansas goes to 51 if Kobach is the nominee

[MT Treasurer]

Maine is looking like the 50th seat. Montana, Georgia, Kansas w/Kobach and possibly Iowa aren’t far behind either.

Yeah. How I see it now:
47. CO
48. AZ
49. NC
50. ME  
51. MT
52. GA regular
53. IA
54. GA special
55. KS
56. TX
57. AK
58. AL
59. SC
60. MS

Very good rankings IMO. I wouldn’t rule out MT/GA flipping before ME, KS flipping before IA (with Kobach), or a surprisingly good result for the GOP in the GA-S runoff (a weird outcome like Jones surviving by the skin of his teeth and Collins narrowly winning the runoff can’t be entirely ruled out, I’d say, unless all the other Democrats in that race drop out), but this is pretty much how I would rank them as well.

[Xing]

Even given that PPP sometimes has a D bias, terrible polls for the Republicans. It’s really looking like Democrats are (narrowly) favored to win the Senate, since Republicans will need some luck or a change in the environment for Republicans to hold three of GA/ME/MT/NC. And if they’re losing IA, they’re probably not taking back the Senate until at least 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even given that PPP sometimes has a D bias, terrible polls for the Republicans. It’s really looking like Democrats are (narrowly) favored to win the Senate, since Republicans will need some luck or a change in the environment for Republicans to hold three of GA/ME/MT/NC. And if they’re losing IA, they’re probably not taking back the Senate until at least 2024.

Ds have chances in SC, MT, KS, AK and TX too as well as GA goes to runoffa

[Lief 🗽]

Everyone enjoys pointing out how much McSally sucks of course, but Tillis’s consistently pathetic performances seem to be going under the radar. He’s an actual elected incumbent and he’s losing every poll to a generic Democrat no one’s ever heard of, and running way behind the top of the ticket too.

[WD]

[S019]

What’s interesting to me is that in both AZ and NC, you have challengers nearing 50 or above 50 in most polls, and incumbents mired in the low to mid 40’s. In Maine, you have an incumbent stuck in the low 40’s and a challenger in the mid 40’s consistently, what this suggests to me is that either Maine’s undecideds are more likely to break for Republicans than those in Arizona or North Carolina or that Republicans still have a legitimate chance to win Maine. I’m leaving Maine at tossup, but strongly considering moving NC to Lean D in light of recent polling. So, Collins is currently probably an underdog, but her path is much more doable than that of Tillis or McSally.

[VAR]

The Maine poll has really oversampled Democrats and undersampled Independents. Here’s the exit poll data:

                         D:         I:          R:
2008 exit poll      35%      39%      26%
2014 exit poll      30%      40%      30%
2016 exit poll      31%      39%      30%
PPP                     38%      33%      29%

Independents never dropped below 39%, which says a lot. Also, a Maine poll from February had Indies at 42%. The discrepancy is just crazy.

Yeah. How I see it now:
47. CO
48. AZ
49. NC
50. ME  
51. MT
52. GA regular
53. IA
54. GA special
55. KS
56. TX
57. AK
58. AL
59. SC
60. MS

Perdue is more vulnerable than you think, and I think partisanship will screw Bullock, but it’ll be very close regardless. As for Maine, I just refuse to believe this sketchy poll.

[Roll Roons]

The Maine poll has really oversampled Democrats and undersampled Independents. Here’s the exit poll data:

                         D:         I:          R:
2008 exit poll      35%      39%      26%
2014 exit poll      30%      40%      30%
2016 exit poll      31%      39%      30%
PPP                     38%      33%      29%

Independents never dropped below 39%, which says a lot. Also, a Maine poll from February had Indies at 42%. The discrepancy is just crazy.

Yeah. How I see it now:
47. CO
48. AZ
49. NC
50. ME  
51. MT
52. GA regular
53. IA
54. GA special
55. KS
56. TX
57. AK
58. AL
59. SC
60. MS

Perdue is more vulnerable than you think, and I think partisanship will screw Bullock, but it’ll be very close regardless. As for Maine, I just refuse to believe this sketchy poll.

Montana has a history of defying presidential partisanship, and a popular sitting governor is the strongest possible recruit for a Senate race. I still have Perdue's seat as the next to flip.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need a PPP for KS, MT and TX Senate

[MT Treasurer]

Perdue is more vulnerable than you think, and I think partisanship will screw Bullock, but it’ll be very close regardless. As for Maine, I just refuse to believe this sketchy poll.

Here we go again. Alright, I’m still waiting for "polarization" to kick in and that supposed "partisanship" to cause Bullock's numbers to collapse. Can you let me in on when it will happen?  

On this occasion...

Do you think it’s a coincidence that Daines has barely (if at all) been polling better than Matt Rosendale's result in 2018 ever since Democrats decided to go all in on the race? Do you think Steve Bullock just had no idea what he was doing when he entered the race given that it’s apparently such an uphill battle? Do you think there’s a reason MT Republicans have pretty much never won a race when there were two competing sets of pre-election polls (one showing Republicans ahead in most surveys, the other showing narrow but consistent leads for Democrats)? Do you think "partisanship" was why Rick Scott won the FL Senate race in 2018 in a Democratic wave environment (you know, in that Titanium Tilt R state where Biden holds a commanding lead right now)? Do you think it’s a coincidence that the MDP has won so many close/competitive elections and the MTGOP's successes can be counted on one hand?

[NewYorkExpress]

I think of these three results, the one in North Carolina is the one that should worry me if I'm in a Republican strategist. The undecideds in Maine likely either will break for Collins, or have her as their second choice in an RCV vote, McSally's pretty much done, and I'd consider triaging that seat...but Tillis was supposed to be a strong incumbent, especially against a virtual unknown like Cal Cunningham. That race seems eerily similar to the Senate race in 2008.

[Yoda]

Cunningham's lead being almost as big as Mark Kelly's is giving me all the feels right now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Perdue is more vulnerable than you think, and I think partisanship will screw Bullock, but it’ll be very close regardless. As for Maine, I just refuse to believe this sketchy poll.

Here we go again. Alright, I’m still waiting for "polarization" to kick in and that supposed "partisanship" to cause Bullock's numbers to collapse. Can you let me in on when it will happen?  

On this occasion...

Do you think it’s a coincidence that Daines has barely (if at all) been polling better than Matt Rosendale's result in 2018 ever since Democrats decided to go all in on the race? Do you think Steve Bullock just had no idea what he was doing when he entered the race given that it’s apparently such an uphill battle? Do you think there’s a reason MT Republicans have pretty much never won a race when there were two competing sets of pre-election polls (one showing Republicans ahead in most surveys, the other showing narrow but consistent leads for Democrats)? Do you think "partisanship" was why Rick Scott won the FL Senate race in 2018 in a Democratic wave environment (you know, in that Titanium Tilt R state where Biden holds a commanding lead right now)? Do you think it’s a coincidence that the MDP has won so many close/competitive elections and the MTGOP's successes can be counted on one hand?

Bullock got into the race before Covid 19 hit, and so did Kennedy and Bollier, all of their fundraising were hitting records. Then, Covidc19 hit and donors started donating to the races that mattered more, AZ, CO, ME, NC and Biden's.  When, working poor were hit hard by hard times and middle class donated to the necessary races. Thats why Pelosi ad was pulled from Facebook,  asking for donations,  and that never happened during the campaign .

Now, MT, KS has slipped to 2nd tier battlegrounds and Markey is kneck and kneck with Kennedy

[jdk]

Again, it would be useful if pollsters asked about independent candidates in ME-SEN and find out their second choices via RCV.

Imagine the sh**tstorm by Republicans if Susan Collins wins the first round but loses because of second choice votes, and it winds up tilting control of the senate

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2020-07-23

Summary: D: 48%, R: 40%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Maine Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2020-07-22

Summary: D: 47%, R: 42%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details