Florida (St Pete Polls): Biden +6

[wbrocks67]

Biden 50
Trump 44

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/351214-poll-joe-biden-leads-in-florida-with-more-than-50-of-the-vote

Was Biden 48-47 in late May.

[wbrocks67]

Online national polls seem to be telling a different story right now than most of the state polls + live caller national pollers + congressional polls

[VAR]

18% of Republicans voting for Biden. Reminds me of this poll which had both Nelson and Gillum winning the exact same share of Republicans.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Covid 19 has made both Ducey and DeSantis unpopular, whom are both vulnerable in 2022

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

18% of Republicans voting for Biden. Reminds me of this poll which had both Nelson and Gillum winning the exact same share of Republicans.

18% sounds a bit high to me, but I think it's important to remember that this poll is being taken under completely different circumstances than the 2018 midterms. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

JFC! Why do you use Likely Voters screen when we are still more than 100 days away from election day?

[woodley park]

Hopefully a poll like this calms some of the red avatar nerves around here. Doesn't seem like much has changed, despite Trump's "new" ""somber"" """tone""".

[Horus]

Weren't these guys way too pro Dem in Florida in 2018, even moreso than other pollsters?

[Panda Express]

18% of Republicans voting for Biden. Reminds me of this poll which had both Nelson and Gillum winning the exact same share of Republicans.

The difference between now and 2018 is, as I'm sure you are aware, hundreds of Floridans weren't being sent to a farm upstate daily in 2018 due to incompetence of Trump/DeSantis. Plus the whole 10% unemployment thing and all

[wbrocks67]

Weren't these guys way too pro Dem in Florida in 2018, even moreso than other pollsters?

Their last 4 polls of 2018 averaged Nelson 49 / Scott 48, so nah, they were actually pretty damn accurate... maybe one of the most accurate, considering some others had higher Dem leads

[wbrocks67]

18% of Republicans voting for Biden. Reminds me of this poll which had both Nelson and Gillum winning the exact same share of Republicans.

Both sides are iffy on that one, they also have 15% Democrats voting for Trump, so that kinda equals out

[BobbieMac]

Puts Biden+9 nationally on UNS, so not exactly out of the ordinary.

[Devils30]

I expect Biden improvement here but I don't see how he's up 10 in the Fort Myers market.

[Roemerista]

JFC! Why do you use Likely Voters screen when we are still more than 100 days away from election day?

To make the race look more competitive than it is.

[ajc0918]

We love to see it. Olds are over Trump.

[Sir Mohamed]

If the election was held today, Biden would win by at least the 2008 margin in FL. I'm still cautious to call this anything else than a pure tossup since there is still over 100 days to go and Dems have polled well in previous cycles before losing by a 1% margin.

Biden will probably maintain a favorite status in the state for Mr. Trump's Covid handling alone, but Dems shouldn't be overconfident. In Trump HQ, however, they should be very nervous. If he loses FL, he's done.

[pbrower2a]

Florida is never any more than a bare win for a Democratic nominee for President, even in near-blowouts (Clinton 1992 and 1996 and Obama 2008)  Florida just doesn't swing much... unless in a political disaster for someone.

[jdk]

Covid 19 has made both Ducey and DeSantis unpopular, whom are both vulnerable in 2022

Isn't Ducey term limited in 2022?   Although, I do expect him to try to make a run for Mark Kelly's senate seat.

[Devout Centrist]

Florida is never any more than a bare win for a Democratic nominee for President, even in near-blowouts (Clinton 1992 and 1996 and Obama 2008)  Florida just doesn't swing much... unless in a political disaster for someone.

Clinton won it by almost 6 points in 1996

[One Term Floridian]

Florida is never any more than a bare win for a Democratic nominee for President, even in near-blowouts (Clinton 1992 and 1996 and Obama 2008)  Florida just doesn't swing much... unless in a political disaster for someone.

Clinton won it by almost 6 points in 1996

And Bush by 5 in 04, which is just stunning after what went down in 2000

[Use Your Illusion]

Covid 19 has made both Ducey and DeSantis unpopular, whom are both vulnerable in 2022

Please.... PLEASE for the love of GOD let John Morgan re-join the Democratic Party and win against DeSantis. I don't give a damn if he's a shyster lawyer. Anyone who fights THAT hard for legal marijuana is getting my vote

[Use Your Illusion]

Florida is never any more than a bare win for a Democratic nominee for President, even in near-blowouts (Clinton 1992 and 1996 and Obama 2008)  Florida just doesn't swing much... unless in a political disaster for someone.

Clinton won it by almost 6 points in 1996

Yeah but Ross Perot though....

[Progressive Pessimist]

Looks a lot more reasonable than the Quinnipiac poll, but I am still skeptical that Biden could win by this much. I am begrudgingly finally open to considering that he could win here though. It would be glorious but not make up for any of Florida's other numerous political failings.

By the way, if you're sick of me s****ing all over Florida all the time, I made a wager in a post that you can find in the thread on the Quinnipiac Biden+13 poll thread.

[Use Your Illusion]

Looks a lot more reasonable than the Quinnipiac poll, but I am still skeptical that Biden could win by this much. I am begrudgingly finally open to considering that he could win here though. It would be glorious but not make up for any of Florida's other numerous political failings.

By the way, if you're sick of me s****ing all over Florida all the time, I made a wager in a post that you can find in the thread on the Quinnipiac Biden+13 poll thread.

I'm just a little skeptical too. +6 is the absolute threshold either Trump or Biden could possibly get. But I can, however, be convinced that Biden is leading in both Hillsborough and Pinellas by a +6 spread and that would be an excellent start for him. But to win FL, the Biden camp would hope to do maybe a little better in Hillsborough. Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2008 both carried Hillsborough by around +8. But in defense of Pinellas, +6 would be an outstanding margin. That is still regardless of if Biden managed to better that spread.

If Biden can get around 575,000 votes out of those 2 counties he stands a halfways decent chance of winning a state that almost always votes for the incumbent