Well, its definately an uphill climb.
The ideal time to get into this race would have been September or October of last year. This is when Bredesen's approval numbers were in the toilet and he was about as unpopular as President Bush among liberals and Democrats.
The state GOP had done an awesome job of jumping on Bredesen at that time and making a clear path candidates that wanted to jump in while the water was warm.
But Beth Harwell and others flittered around during that time and nobody wanted to step on anyone's toes so they all let Bredesen have time to get his numbers back up a bit.
Philly Bredesen (that's what I call him because he's not from around these parts) currently has a number of advantages. He has millions of dollars in his campaign treasury and his bank account. He can throw as much money as he pleases whenever and however he pleases. Bredesen also has a 60% approval among Republicans and 58% approval among conservatives. He has had time for Dems to somewhat forget why they hate him, so he's back up to 56% among Dems and 49% approval among liberals.
Bredesen is, to my knowledge, the only official at that level to have a much higher approval rating among the opposite party than among his own. He will have to spend some time rallying traditional Democrats. Blacks may come out to vote for Ford, but could skip voting for Bredesen.
As optimistic as I would like to be, this is still a lean Dem race. Bryson not only waited late to jump in, but under state law, he can't raise any money until the state Senate session is over. He'll have to depend entirely on the strength of the state and county Republican organizations to pull him through.
However, Senator Bryson can make lemonade out of lemons and turn these frowny polls upside down. If we can push Bredesen's liberal side, like how he didn't sign on to the Choose Life license plates, we could collapse his high approvals among Republicans. I think we can also do some things to remind less-fortunate voters what Bredesen did to them and how Senator Bryson tried to save their coverage. Bryson will also be helped by the likely Republican victory in the Senate race and the continuing Republicanization of the state. The anti-gay marriage amendment is also on the ballot.
Tennessee couldn't have a better Governor than Senator Jim Bryson.
But we've got a LOT of work to do, and very little time to get that message out.
