Utah 2020 Redistricting

[It’s so Joever]

The GOP will go for a 4-0. I’m guessing the Mormons will collapse much like WWC and RGV but in the opposite direction in the late 2030’s.

[It’s so Joever]

The GOP will go for a 4-0. I’m guessing the Mormons will collapse much like WWC and RGV but in the opposite direction in the late 2020’s.

[Hope For A New Era]

Here's a silly one, just for fun. If you assume that McMullin voters break evenly (which seems to have been approximately the case) and maintain those voting patterns into the future, you can draw two Tilt D districts and two Titanium R districts.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c9b1e599-7ee1-4a98-b075-8e8d986ee00b

[S019]

If I had to guess, I think Republicans will likely go for 3-0-1 in Utah? Utah is probably not republican enough anymore for a proper 4-0; and there is also no need to concede a full sink to the Dems. 3-0-1 seems like the likeliest option (indeed that is how the current map already behaves in practice, though I'd want to see the Trump vs Biden numbers by CD).

Trump+21, that's plenty red for a 4-0.  It's like drawing a 5-0 in CT.  The districts might not have equal partisanship, but they should be able to get everything to at least Trump+15.

Drawing a secure 5-0 in CT is very hard w/o splitting Hartford, anyways 4-0, but keeping one district probably Owens a tad more competitive (so like Likely R) might be the smart play

[Skye]

If I had to guess, I think Republicans will likely go for 3-0-1 in Utah? Utah is probably not republican enough anymore for a proper 4-0; and there is also no need to concede a full sink to the Dems. 3-0-1 seems like the likeliest option (indeed that is how the current map already behaves in practice, though I'd want to see the Trump vs Biden numbers by CD).

What do you mean? Non-Trump Republicans can still win SLC (See Romney, Cox). I don't see why the GOP wouldn't aim for 4 seats by carving Salt Lake City even further.

[Former President tack50]

Here is my attempt at a 3-0-1 map like I said. I also tried to have road contiguity in all districts; if you allow districts with no road connection it gets quite a bit easier. I however did not consider incumbent residences so this probably would not work.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ab10c7fd-a605-455e-b69b-ffbad4721959



Salt Lake city inset:



Of course if you do think that non-Trump Republicans would overperform easily this could be considered a 4-0 map as well, even if it is not the most efficient one

UT-01: 48-21 Trump; Romney+44, R+26
UT-02: 49-28 Trump; Romney+30; R+20
UT-03: 45-24 Trump; Romney+39; R+24
UT-04: 41-36 Trump; Romney+16; R+11

If I had to guess, I think Republicans will likely go for 3-0-1 in Utah? Utah is probably not republican enough anymore for a proper 4-0; and there is also no need to concede a full sink to the Dems. 3-0-1 seems like the likeliest option (indeed that is how the current map already behaves in practice, though I'd want to see the Trump vs Biden numbers by CD).

What do you mean? Non-Trump Republicans can still win SLC (See Romney, Cox). I don't see why the GOP wouldn't aim for 4 seats by carving Salt Lake City even further.

My guess is that a 3-0-1 map probably transforms into a proper 4-0 map if Republicans "go back to normal" electorally. Though haven't plenty of dems won the UT-04 district, even pre-Trump?

[Skye]

My guess is that a 3-0-1 map probably transforms into a proper 4-0 map if Republicans "go back to normal" electorally. Though haven't plenty of dems won the UT-04 district, even pre-Trump?

Yes, but I'd guess the point is that they wouldn't make it any easier for a Dem to win again.
Here is my attempt at a 3-0-1 map like I said. I also tried to have road contiguity in all districts; if you allow districts with no road connection it gets quite a bit easier. I however did not consider incumbent residences so this probably would not work.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

bump
Would be interesting what kind of state legislative maps people come up with.

[Former President tack50]

Here is my attempt at an R gerrymander of the state senate

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b550bb33-f287-4a30-8b1d-a2462e116fc8

[Coastal Elitist]

I was able to run 2020 numbers for my Utah map.



UT-1: Trump+21 - Chris Stewart
UT-2: Trump+20 - Blake Moore
UT-3: Trump+21 - Burgess Owens
UT-4: Trump+18 - John Curtis


This is basically Utah maxed out. So if you want to be safe you can probably reduce the 4th to Trump +15 and increase the others to Trump+25 but really this would be fine. I'm guessing as a former mayor of Provo John Curtis will easily outperform Trump numbers.

[Hope For A New Era]

I attempted to draw a fair state senate map.

The problem is that Utah Democrats pack themselves so hard that if you try to draw a map with fair partisanship (roughly 18R-11D, so like 14R 7D and 8 swing districts, or something), you have to completely ignore the concept of COI and draw like 5 shoestring districts stretching from central SLC out into the Jordans and then cram the competitive districts into the east side of GSLV (plus one competitive district centered in Ogden).

[Stuart98]

Yeah, Utah's one state where geography gets worse for Democrats with smaller district sizes.

[Nyvin]

Shameless bump -

Here's a normal map one could expect out of a fair commission



https://davesredistricting.org/join/904d1950-7c92-48cb-bc19-7f748ff5eff1

Just to note - the four counties north and northwest of SLC almost perfectly form a district and considering the arrangement of the Salt Lake Desert in the west and mountains in the east they also form a near perfect COI too.

This map has 1 municipality split.

[Stuart98]

Shameless bump -

Here's a normal map one could expect out of a fair commission



https://davesredistricting.org/join/904d1950-7c92-48cb-bc19-7f748ff5eff1

Just to note - the four counties north and northwest of SLC almost perfectly form a district and considering the arrangement of the Salt Lake Desert in the west and mountains in the east they also form a near perfect COI too.

This map has 1 municipality split.

One problem with this map, there's no road connection between Rich and Morgan or Summit counties. Have to either put it with the 1st or have the 2nd take a bit of Weber.

[Nyvin]

Shameless bump -

Here's a normal map one could expect out of a fair commission



https://davesredistricting.org/join/904d1950-7c92-48cb-bc19-7f748ff5eff1

Just to note - the four counties north and northwest of SLC almost perfectly form a district and considering the arrangement of the Salt Lake Desert in the west and mountains in the east they also form a near perfect COI too.

This map has 1 municipality split.

One problem with this map, there's no road connection between Rich and Morgan or Summit counties. Have to either put it with the 1st or have the 2nd take a bit of Weber.

Not sure what you mean here, there's roads going from Wasatch to Summit to Morgan to Rich (the road going from Summit to Morgan is a major highway...).



Rich county is isolated from everything really, so nothing for that county will be perfect.

[Tintrlvr]

Shameless bump -

Here's a normal map one could expect out of a fair commission



https://davesredistricting.org/join/904d1950-7c92-48cb-bc19-7f748ff5eff1

Just to note - the four counties north and northwest of SLC almost perfectly form a district and considering the arrangement of the Salt Lake Desert in the west and mountains in the east they also form a near perfect COI too.

This map has 1 municipality split.

One problem with this map, there's no road connection between Rich and Morgan or Summit counties. Have to either put it with the 1st or have the 2nd take a bit of Weber.

Having to go a few miles over the border into Wyoming to connect between Rich and Summit counties is not a real issue, especially for a county as small and isolated as Rich County. Road connections are a useful proxy sometimes for whether certain county connections make sense but also have to be subject to general scrutiny in context.

[Skill and Chance]

Any updates on how much they intend to interfere with the commission and whether they have the votes to do it?

[Stuart98]

Shameless bump -

Here's a normal map one could expect out of a fair commission



https://davesredistricting.org/join/904d1950-7c92-48cb-bc19-7f748ff5eff1

Just to note - the four counties north and northwest of SLC almost perfectly form a district and considering the arrangement of the Salt Lake Desert in the west and mountains in the east they also form a near perfect COI too.

This map has 1 municipality split.

One problem with this map, there's no road connection between Rich and Morgan or Summit counties. Have to either put it with the 1st or have the 2nd take a bit of Weber.

Not sure what you mean here, there's roads going from Wasatch to Summit to Morgan to Rich (the road going from Summit to Morgan is a major highway...).



Rich county is isolated from everything really, so nothing for that county will be perfect.

You misread, I was saying that neither Summit nor Morgan have a road connection to Rich.

[Nyvin]

Shameless bump -

Here's a normal map one could expect out of a fair commission



https://davesredistricting.org/join/904d1950-7c92-48cb-bc19-7f748ff5eff1

Just to note - the four counties north and northwest of SLC almost perfectly form a district and considering the arrangement of the Salt Lake Desert in the west and mountains in the east they also form a near perfect COI too.

This map has 1 municipality split.

One problem with this map, there's no road connection between Rich and Morgan or Summit counties. Have to either put it with the 1st or have the 2nd take a bit of Weber.

Not sure what you mean here, there's roads going from Wasatch to Summit to Morgan to Rich (the road going from Summit to Morgan is a major highway...).



Rich county is isolated from everything really, so nothing for that county will be perfect.

You misread, I was saying that neither Summit nor Morgan have a road connection to Rich.

There is a road connection, it looks like it's a small road, but it is there.   There's certainly a much better connection from Morgan to Rich than from Cache to Rich!   Again - Rich County is just in general a very isolated, remote area...there is no ideal place to connect it to.

[Hope For A New Era]

There is a road connection, it looks like it's a small road, but it is there.   There's certainly a much better connection from Morgan to Rich than from Cache to Rich!   Again - Rich County is just in general a very isolated, remote area...there is no ideal place to connect it to.

What? There's a connection from Cache to Rich. It's a very nice road, actually. I've driven it.

It appears that there are dirt roads connecting Morgan and Rich.

At some point I'm going to have to attempt both the Tooele-Box Elder drive and the Morgan-Rich drive.

[Utah Neolib]

The legislature doesn’t have to do the districting this independent commission does. They can just ignore it, and they will. Say hello to 4 R+20 Districts

[_.]

I tried my hand at a fair 4-district map of Utah.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.03%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

28/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
87/100 on the Compactness Index
60/100 on County Splitting
0/100 on the Minority Representation index (minorities don't live in Utah lol)
0/100 on Dave's competitiveness index (eh)

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 Utah Attorney General Election: 4R

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Utah: 3R to 1D

2016 Utah Gubernatorial Election: 3R to 1D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Utah: 3R to 1D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Utah: 3R to 1D

2020 Utah Attorney General Election: 3R to 1D

2020 Utah Gubernatorial Election: 3R to 1D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Utah: 3R to 1D


Opinions?

[Stuart98]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I tried my hand at a fair 4-district map of Utah.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.03%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

28/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
87/100 on the Compactness Index
60/100 on County Splitting
0/100 on the Minority Representation index (minorities don't live in Utah lol)
0/100 on Dave's competitiveness index (eh)

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 Utah Attorney General Election: 4R

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Utah: 3R to 1D

2016 Utah Gubernatorial Election: 3R to 1D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Utah: 3R to 1D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Utah: 3R to 1D

2020 Utah Attorney General Election: 3R to 1D

2020 Utah Gubernatorial Election: 3R to 1D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Utah: 3R to 1D


Opinions?

I like it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

An effort at a 4R map.
No counties are split except for Salt Lake, and the most pro-D district voted for Trump by 13 in 2020. All districts are territorially connected.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/468ca472-dbd6-4b3b-9c47-13c48d77e541