Utah 2020 Redistricting

[S019]

So, apparently there's no thread for this yet, anyways I put together two maps, which are probably the likeliest maps, a commission map, given UT has a commission, and a GOP gerrymander, if the GOP manages to strip the commission of its power or just chooses to ignore it, etc.

Commission map: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9035300e-a97a-4239-9cb7-82000b763bc7

GOP gerrymander: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9f8d6101-f019-45cd-a128-a284f8576808

In the commission map, Democrats get a safe D SLC seat, while the GOP gerrymander would split SLC into oblivion. That seat seems to be the main point of contention, given all of the other seats would be safely Republican given how blood red the state is outside of SLC. I don't expect there to be much discussion about this state, but given there are two competing proposals, I felt that it warrants a thread where we can discuss the proposals.

[Roll Roons]

In your second map, UT-02 is only Trump +9, which is only slightly redder than the current UT-04. In the right year, that district could very well be within reach for a McAdams or Matheson type.

I tried my hand at an incumbent protection map:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/c949e0af-7c70-4a4e-8cae-c75ddeeb9b29

Blake Moore, who is effectively Congressman-elect for UT-01, doesn't live in the current or new version, but would likely run there. Otherwise, UT-02 goes to Stewart, UT-03 to Curtis and UT-04 to McAdams. UT-01 is R+26, UT-02 is R+31, UT-03 is R+26 and UT-04 is D+4, though those numbers are skewed by Romney. UT-04 in particular is somewhat interesting. Had it existed this decade, it would likely have had the single largest Romney to Clinton swing of any district nationwide.

[Coastal Elitist]

So, apparently there's no thread for this yet, anyways I put together two maps, which are probably the likeliest maps, a commission map, given UT has a commission, and a GOP gerrymander, if the GOP manages to strip the commission of its power or just chooses to ignore it, etc.

Commission map: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9035300e-a97a-4239-9cb7-82000b763bc7

GOP gerrymander: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9f8d6101-f019-45cd-a128-a284f8576808

In the commission map, Democrats get a safe D SLC seat, while the GOP gerrymander would split SLC into oblivion. That seat seems to be the main point of contention, given all of the other seats would be safely Republican given how blood red the state is outside of SLC. I don't expect there to be much discussion about this state, but given there are two competing proposals, I felt that it warrants a thread where we can discuss the proposals.

There's no reason to do such a hideous gerrymander all you have to do is to put the entire city of Salt Lake City with the rest of Eastern Utah and you get 4 safe Republican districts. It looks nice to: https://davesredistricting.org/join/c455fee4-371f-4340-b9a7-aee14b480070

[lfromnj]

So, apparently there's no thread for this yet, anyways I put together two maps, which are probably the likeliest maps, a commission map, given UT has a commission, and a GOP gerrymander, if the GOP manages to strip the commission of its power or just chooses to ignore it, etc.

Commission map: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9035300e-a97a-4239-9cb7-82000b763bc7

GOP gerrymander: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9f8d6101-f019-45cd-a128-a284f8576808

In the commission map, Democrats get a safe D SLC seat, while the GOP gerrymander would split SLC into oblivion. That seat seems to be the main point of contention, given all of the other seats would be safely Republican given how blood red the state is outside of SLC. I don't expect there to be much discussion about this state, but given there are two competing proposals, I felt that it warrants a thread where we can discuss the proposals.

There's no reason to do such a hideous gerrymander all you have to do is to put the entire city of Salt Lake City with the rest of Eastern Utah and you get 4 safe Republican districts. It looks nice to: https://davesredistricting.org/join/c455fee4-371f-4340-b9a7-aee14b480070

Uh what?
the current Utah 4th is Trump +7 you just created a Trump +2 and Trump +5 district.

The Trump +5 is pretty similar to the current Utah 4th and that already flipped D.

The Trump +2 isn't really trending D as much and it probably is a bit safer for the GOP despite the narrower Trump margin due to primary dynamics but it could still flip.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

GOP gerrymander: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9f8d6101-f019-45cd-a128-a284f8576808

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c455fee4-371f-4340-b9a7-aee14b480070

You both really should check PVI and Pres 2016 to compare to McAdams' current district. S019's 2nd district is only one point more Republican than the current 4th while being completely hideous and completely ignoring county and municipal lines, meanwhile TPH's 4th district is 1 point left of the current 4th and his 3rd district is only Trump+2, so if anything he's drawn a Democratic gerrymander.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7c2b7c78-7f60-4100-9c58-0c4c8e0d4b21

Here's my suggestion for a Utah Republican plan. Not only is it clean following county and municipal lines, but all four districts are between R+19 and R+21 and most importantly for a Republican plan it makes sure each incumbent still has their own seat which takes in their own base. Relatively little change from the current district map either.

[Hope For A New Era]

Districts are tricky in Utah because of how intensely the population is concentrated in one area.  Over 80% of the population lives in the narrow corridor from Brigham City to Santaquin. So almost any map will look gerrymandered, even if it's not.

Here's a "future Dem gerrymander" I came up with, just because I was curious how easily it could be done. It has two Titanium R districts and two extremely competitive districts that are expected to shift dramatically to the left in the future.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/a966feba-97f9-4970-8490-f867eb518418

[Former President tack50]

I suppose this really depends on whether Republicans still try for 4-0 or concede a sink to the Dems. If they concede a sink, a fair map gets drawn. If they go for 4-0,

A lot of this of course depends on how Utah votes in 2020. If it votes Trump narrowly, then Republicans will probably play it safe and draw a sink. If Trump wins it easily, they will go for 4-0.

[Oryxslayer]

There is also an issue with your commission map. As it stands right now, the commission adopted by the Utah legislature creates a 7 member advisory board. 5 of the members are appointed directly by the elected party leaders: 1 from the gov, and then one each by the majority and minority parties senate and HoR leadership. The remaining two are by the party leadership as a group; one from the combined minority party leadership, on from the combined majority party leadership. Any map needs approval of 5 commissioners at minimum, meaning some cooperation between the dual leadership teams is needed.

This means that if the legislature ends up adopting a commission selected map (depends on if McAdams survives 2020, by how much, and what the 2020 pres vote looks like in my eyes) they would still never draw out any incumbent GOP legislator. This means that while the "three seats in the Salt Lake corridor and then one in for the rest" is the better map in terms of COIs, it does not work when considering incumbent residency. Steward is in Farmington and Moore I think is in Ogden. The COI alignment would pair them together. With this in mind, the commission would utilize section F guidelines (following natural and geographic boundaries, barriers, and features) to create a map that separates incumbents. A map similar to this in its composition of the GOP seats maps more sense given this perspective.

UT01 starts in the north but stays north of Tavaputs in the east. UT02 starts in Stewards hom but then takes in the south of the state to the west of the main Rocky Wasatch Ridge. UT03 takes in the eastern area between Wasatch and the Tavaputs that makes up the Colorado plateau.

[MAPZZ]

Chris Stewart please move to St. George to make nice-looking maps more possible.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/28a262a4-51a5-414e-aec2-28299b618459
4-0 map.  All Republicans still live in their districts, Trump margins range from 17-19.  Also, Stewart's district moves slightly right. 
Not too messy either.  But if UT trends D relative to the country in 2020, R's might want to make Stewart titanium R and keep UT-4 a swing district. 

[Sol]

Since apparently this thread doesn't exist?

Utah will have a commission for this year but it sounds like it's somewhat neutered, with the legislature having the ability to just straight-up draw their own districts after the commission submits their own. I assume they will draw a 4-0 hypermander ripping Salt Lake County to shreds because Republicans are evil.

In any case, drawing a fair map of Utah is actually pretty difficult. In theory there are four pretty rational districts--Northern Utah, Salt Lake City, Southern Salt Lake County and Provo, and the rest of rural Utah--but unfortunately "Downstate Utah" doesn't have enough people, no matter how you slice it. As a result it forces either a really awkward split of Provo or drawing the Wasatch front into two districts each taking a bite of rural Utah--which seems less than ideal. When you add in odd complications based on geography--there's no functional connection between Box Elder and Tooele, for example--it becomes a less enjoyable redistricting experience.

Would be interested in seeing y'all's maps.

[Sol]

Here's a rough pass at a fair UT. I personally think this is pretty ugly, but I do like that it roughly hews to city lines and the split of Utah County is a relatively more elegant one. Still a work in progress though.

link

[kwabbit]

Link

Whipped this up in a few minutes. I don't like that Box Elder is part of the Southern Salt Lake District but this minimizes county splits. Splitting only in Utah and Salt Lake Counties.

Utah has a weird political geography, it's population is so concentrated around the lake that it makes it districting awkward.

Any fair map will basically guarantee a Dem district in Salt Lake City, given that Dems already win or come close in the much less friendly current iteration. But there isn't going to be a fair map so it's a moot point.

I also didn't know Utah was so White. I thought it was like 20-25% Hispanic, not 12% by CVAP.  Even SLC is 78% White.

[Stuart98]

Box Elder should never be in the same district as Tooele, there's no real connection between the two. It should always be in the same district as either Weber or Cache, if not both.

Salt Lake County is basically split in two ways. The east side tends to be whiter, wealthier, and more Democratic than the poorer, less white, and more Republican west side. There's a similar trend from north to south, with the south end (particularly on the west side) being whiter, wealthier, and more Republican than the north side. The cities on the south-west end of the county (South Jordan, Riverton, Bluffdale, and Herriman) are much like the cities on the north end of Utah county (Lehi and Saratoga springs) and can go together. Looking at kwabbit's map, I'd move West Jordan and Copperton over to CD2 and move Cottenwood Heights and Midvale over to CD3. Precincts on the eastern edge of SLCO are mostly ski resorts and should go together. Summit county is also mostly a resort area and forms a COI with the eastern edges of Salt Lake County, though the northern areas around the county seat of Coalville are more like Morgan county. Wasatch county is an odd mix between resort areas and very conservative Utah county exurbs. Since it's not possible to split it due to the precinct shapes, sticking it with Utah county is preferred though pairing it with Summit is acceptable.

Southern Utah doesn't exactly form a COI, since the south-east end consists of the heavily Native American San Juan county and the relatively liberal destination area of Grand County, which only have two road connections with the rest of the state: the minor road of State Route 95 through northern San Juan, and I-70 running through Green River. Pairing those two with Emery is a necessity but beyond that it doesn't particularly matter if the district they're in is more based on counties to the west or counties to the north, though the former definitely has a better aesthetic.

This map probably won't upset anyone other than Chris Stewart (or possibly Blake Moore):



Link

While where representatives live shouldn't be a concern in a fair map, it probably will be a concern in whatever map the legislature draws, although Utah doesn't require representatives live in their districts (and pretty soon half our delegation won't). For reference:

Blake Moore (UT-01) currently lives in UT-02 (in the East Bend of SLC, south of the University of Utah). He promised he'd move into the 1st district, though I don't think he has yet.

Chris Stewart (UT-02) currently lives in UT-02 (in Farmington, central Davis County). This map would put him in UT-01. (Technically, this means my map doesn't double-stack anyone)

John Curtis (UT-03) currently lives in UT-03 (in Provo). This map would put him in UT-03.

Burgess Owens (UT-04) currently lives in UT-03 (in Draper, south-east SLCO). I'm not sure if he's planning on moving but I'm guessing not, given as how until a couple years ago he actually lived in the 4th district (in Herriman). This map would put him in UT-04.

[Nyvin]

This state will be exhibit A on why Democrats unilaterally disarming when it comes to gerrymandering is real stupid idea.

[S019]

The thread does exist, I made one a while back: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=384081.msg7471681#msg7471681, so going to report this so both get merged

[Hope For A New Era]

Here's an extremely neat and precise D sink map.

It consists of 3 Titanium R districts and one (probably) Safe D district.

It cuts no counties except Salt Lake County.

Within Salt Lake County, there are only two municipality cuts:
- Magna is split along a major road that runs straight north/south through the entirety of the city (8000 West).
- There are a few precincts that don't respect city boundaries along the border between Sandy and Cottonwood Heights, causing the district border to zigzag a bit. I've made it as close to the city limits as possible.

All districts are fully contiguous both by boundary and by road (though the SLC and non-SLC portions of 2 are connected by only a single road).

All districts have deviations of less than 5,000. In fact, 3 and 4 have deviations of less than 1,000.

There is a slight COI miss, adding Morgan County to the D sink district...but, well, do you want a no-county-splits map or not?

link


Side note, there's got to be a better way to do this. Is there any way to add a "bulk fill" option to DRA, so you can highlight an area and have all precincts there made part of a district? Salt Lake County is extremely tedious.

[Sol]

Here's an extremely neat and precise D sink map.

It consists of 3 Titanium R districts and one (probably) Safe D district.

It cuts no counties except Salt Lake County.

Within Salt Lake County, there are only two municipality cuts:
- Magna is split along a major road that runs straight north/south through the entirety of the city (8000 West).
- There are a few precincts that don't respect city boundaries along the border between Sandy and Cottonwood Heights, causing the district border to zigzag a bit. I've made it as close to the city limits as possible.

All districts are fully contiguous both by boundary and by road (though the SLC and non-SLC portions of 2 are connected by only a single road).

All districts have deviations of less than 5,000. In fact, 3 and 4 have deviations of less than 1,000.

There is a slight COI miss, adding Morgan County to the D sink district...but, well, do you want a no-county-splits map or not?

link


Side note, there's got to be a better way to do this. Is there any way to add a "bulk fill" option to DRA, so you can highlight an area and have all precincts there made part of a district? Salt Lake County is extremely tedious.

This isn't a bad map at all--the one thing is that the 1st is underpopulated while the 2nd is overpopulated--IMO you ought to clip Davis and then do a little fiddling in SLC, since Tooele and Box Elder aren't connected in practice.

You can press control and then use your mouse, and it'll create a rectangle which you can color.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's an extremely neat and precise D sink map.

I don't love splitting Southern Utah and pairing South Salt Lake County with anything but Utah County just to avoid further county chops. It's so easy to fit three districts compactly in the Wasatch Front that I have a hard time justifying any other choice.

[Hope For A New Era]

This isn't a bad map at all--the one thing is that the 1st is underpopulated while the 2nd is overpopulated--IMO you ought to clip Davis and then do a little fiddling in SLC, since Tooele and Box Elder aren't connected in practice.

You can press control and then use your mouse, and it'll create a rectangle which you can color.

Found a better solution: Rich County 1 -> 4, one precinct in Magna 4 -> 2.

I don't love splitting Southern Utah and pairing South Salt Lake County with anything but Utah County just to avoid further county chops. It's so easy to fit three districts compactly in the Wasatch Front that I have a hard time justifying any other choice.

I like avoiding county splits as much as possible because people almost always know which county they live in. They may not know exactly where in the county they live (and there are also situations where people might think they live in a specific city but live just outside the city limits, etc).

Minimizing jurisdiction-splits of all kinds is helpful to the voter.

[Sol]

This isn't a bad map at all--the one thing is that the 1st is underpopulated while the 2nd is overpopulated--IMO you ought to clip Davis and then do a little fiddling in SLC, since Tooele and Box Elder aren't connected in practice.

You can press control and then use your mouse, and it'll create a rectangle which you can color.

Found a better solution: Rich County 1 -> 4, one precinct in Magna 4 -> 2.

I don't love splitting Southern Utah and pairing South Salt Lake County with anything but Utah County just to avoid further county chops. It's so easy to fit three districts compactly in the Wasatch Front that I have a hard time justifying any other choice.

I like avoiding county splits as much as possible because people almost always know which county they live in. They may not know exactly where in the county they live (and there are also situations where people might think they live in a specific city but live just outside the city limits, etc).

Minimizing jurisdiction-splits of all kinds is helpful to the voter.

Still too many people in Blue and not enough in Green.

[kwabbit]

Here's an extremely neat and precise D sink map.

It consists of 3 Titanium R districts and one (probably) Safe D district.

It cuts no counties except Salt Lake County.

Within Salt Lake County, there are only two municipality cuts:
- Magna is split along a major road that runs straight north/south through the entirety of the city (8000 West).
- There are a few precincts that don't respect city boundaries along the border between Sandy and Cottonwood Heights, causing the district border to zigzag a bit. I've made it as close to the city limits as possible.

All districts are fully contiguous both by boundary and by road (though the SLC and non-SLC portions of 2 are connected by only a single road).

All districts have deviations of less than 5,000. In fact, 3 and 4 have deviations of less than 1,000.

There is a slight COI miss, adding Morgan County to the D sink district...but, well, do you want a no-county-splits map or not?

link


Side note, there's got to be a better way to do this. Is there any way to add a "bulk fill" option to DRA, so you can highlight an area and have all precincts there made part of a district? Salt Lake County is extremely tedious.

Can't you just make the precinct paint tool setting higher? That's what I do, or lock the other district in the county then give the county to the new district.

[Former President tack50]

If I had to guess, I think Republicans will likely go for 3-0-1 in Utah? Utah is probably not republican enough anymore for a proper 4-0; and there is also no need to concede a full sink to the Dems. 3-0-1 seems like the likeliest option (indeed that is how the current map already behaves in practice, though I'd want to see the Trump vs Biden numbers by CD).

[Idaho Conservative]

If I had to guess, I think Republicans will likely go for 3-0-1 in Utah? Utah is probably not republican enough anymore for a proper 4-0; and there is also no need to concede a full sink to the Dems. 3-0-1 seems like the likeliest option (indeed that is how the current map already behaves in practice, though I'd want to see the Trump vs Biden numbers by CD).

Trump+21, that's plenty red for a 4-0.  It's like drawing a 5-0 in CT.  The districts might not have equal partisanship, but they should be able to get everything to at least Trump+15.