Utah 2020 Redistricting

[Stuart98]

Rep. Dunnigan (Taylorsville, working class SLC suburb)
Rep. Eliason (Sandy, middle class SLC suburb)
Rep. Judkins (Provo)
Rep. Pulsipher (South Jordan, upper-middle class SLC suburb)
Rep. Winder (WVC, working class SLC suburb)
Sen. Thatcher (WVC, working class SLC suburb)

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Well that was a f**king farce

[BoiseBoy]

On the bright side if Utah gains a 5th district after 2030 there will be at least one fair, Democrat district out of them all...

[Antonio the Sixth]

On the bright side if Utah gains a 5th district after 2030 there will be at least one fair, Democrat district out of them all...

Doubt it. They'll just keep cracking SLC in as many pieces as it takes.

[Crumpets]

On the bright side if Utah gains a 5th district after 2030 there will be at least one fair, Democrat district out of them all...

Doubt it. They'll just keep cracking SLC in as many pieces as it takes.

That'll make it all the more hilarious when metro SLC gets big enough and liberal enough that it ends up flipping every district to the Democrats as a result.

[Antonio the Sixth]

On the bright side if Utah gains a 5th district after 2030 there will be at least one fair, Democrat district out of them all...

Doubt it. They'll just keep cracking SLC in as many pieces as it takes.

That'll make it all the more hilarious when metro SLC gets big enough and liberal enough that it ends up flipping every district to the Democrats as a result.

That would imply Utah as a whole being a Democratic state, which. No lol. It didn't happen in 2016 and it won't happen in 2036 either.

Muh trends won't save you here. The only solution is a Congress-imposed independent commission, or a SCOTUS decision outlawing partisan gerrymander (which, yeah, unlikely too).

[Dan the Roman]

On the bright side if Utah gains a 5th district after 2030 there will be at least one fair, Democrat district out of them all...

Doubt it. They'll just keep cracking SLC in as many pieces as it takes.

That'll make it all the more hilarious when metro SLC gets big enough and liberal enough that it ends up flipping every district to the Democrats as a result.

That would imply Utah as a whole being a Democratic state, which. No lol. It didn't happen in 2016 and it won't happen in 2036 either.

Muh trends won't save you here. The only solution is a Congress-imposed independent commission, or a SCOTUS decision outlawing partisan gerrymander (which, yeah, unlikely too).

The only way that happens is for Mormons to flip D, which tbh is not the most outlandish idea if the Democrats had not gone in the direction they did post 2018. Mormons have higher rates of college, tend to be pro-establishment, while socially conservative on key issues they are less stringent on it than modern ideological evengelicals(education - they are not creationist/dominionist, LGBT rights though ex-Mormons ensure those advocacy groups have an anti-Mormon vendetta, abortion). Ie. it is a center-right group you could see moving as an extension of an outer-suburban exurban swing.

It won't happen because Ds are not only too far left, but because D leftwingers have a near personal vendetta against Mormonism.

Current trends may get Ds to something like a 55-41 statewide loss in 2028, and maybe the GOP would go 4-1 rather than have 2 53-44 seats, but they could probably outlast that. Democrats need Mormons to vote like non-Mormons with the same income/educational backgrounds.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

On the bright side if Utah gains a 5th district after 2030 there will be at least one fair, Democrat district out of them all...

Doubt it. They'll just keep cracking SLC in as many pieces as it takes.

That'll make it all the more hilarious when metro SLC gets big enough and liberal enough that it ends up flipping every district to the Democrats as a result.

That would imply Utah as a whole being a Democratic state, which. No lol. It didn't happen in 2016 and it won't happen in 2036 either.

Muh trends won't save you here. The only solution is a Congress-imposed independent commission, or a SCOTUS decision outlawing partisan gerrymander (which, yeah, unlikely too).

The only way that happens is for Mormons to flip D, which tbh is not the most outlandish idea if the Democrats had not gone in the direction they did post 2018. Mormons have higher rates of college, tend to be pro-establishment, while socially conservative on key issues they are less stringent on it than modern ideological evengelicals(education - they are not creationist/dominionist, LGBT rights though ex-Mormons ensure those advocacy groups have an anti-Mormon vendetta, abortion). Ie. it is a center-right group you could see moving as an extension of an outer-suburban exurban swing.

It won't happen because Ds are not only too far left, but because D leftwingers have a near personal vendetta against Mormonism.

Current trends may get Ds to something like a 55-41 statewide loss in 2028, and maybe the GOP would go 4-1 rather than have 2 53-44 seats, but they could probably outlast that. Democrats need Mormons to vote like non-Mormons with the same income/educational backgrounds.

A few years back, I ran the numbers and found that McMullin’s performance by county in Utah and Idaho was heavily informed by the % of Mormons and the % of people with a college degree (r^2 of something like 0.82). My point in calculating that was to make a county map of a McMullin wins Utah by 1%, but it showed to me that McMullin wasn’t a Mormon candidate, he was very much a college-educated Mormon candidate. Biden did do pretty well there against Trump in 2020. Hard to say how things would look without Trump though. All that is to say that there could be some fracturing of Mormon support along college/non-college lines.

[Stuart98]

Cox signed it. Probably the most egregious gerrymander of the cycle is now law.

[TML]

Cox signed it. Probably the most egregious gerrymander of the cycle is now law.

So do you expect this map to last until 2032, or do you think there is a possibility that federal legislation, if passed, may force a redraw before then?

[Stuart98]

Cox signed it. Probably the most egregious gerrymander of the cycle is now law.

So do you expect this map to last until 2032, or do you think there is a possibility that federal legislation, if passed, may force a redraw before then?

I have no expectation that Congress will get off their asses and pass a gerrymandering ban to stop the state from silencing our voices, no.

[Skill and Chance]

Really weird divide on which states are being aggressive with redistricting and which aren't.  Many suburban R's really do seem to fear a rural-dominated primary more than a competitive GE. 

[lfromnj]

The Utah GOP is a meme. They do this the same day they bow to BLM pressure to rename Dixie state university.

[Stuart98]

The Utah GOP is a meme. They do this the same day they bow to BLM pressure to rename Dixie state university.

Yeah, now it's the Dixie Campus of Utah Tech University.

I can't remember how the vote was in the house; in the senate just over half of GOPers voted against the rename.

[Stuart98]

A lawsuit has been filed alleging that the congressional map violates the rights of Utah voters.

[GALeftist]

Don’t look now, but from oral arguments at least 4/5 justices seem pretty sympathetic to plaintiffs. Not willing to make any guesses until oral arguments are finished, but still.

[Oryxslayer]

Don’t look now, but from oral arguments at least 4/5 justices seem pretty sympathetic to plaintiffs. Not willing to make any guesses until oral arguments are finished, but still.

Oh yeah, totally forgot today was the day where the gerrymandering suit went before the Utah Supreme Court.


For those who don't know, this is a suit that alleges that it was both unconstitutional to go against the peoples vote and disempower the Redistricting Commission and unconstitutional to then pass a map that did not have their authority. The lower state court did not like the former of the arguments, but the Supreme Court heard both of them.

It would be honestly be a weirdly ideal moment for the Utah GOP to see a remap create a Biden won seat in SLC: District 2 which has a lot of SLC is open and anyone republican who wins would get the short stick automatically, and yet if Becky Edwards won the upcoming primary she could hold on depending on the seat, especially if she goes Indie. Oh and the potential for top-two shenanigans later in the decade if the 2024 initiative passes.

[Skill and Chance]

FWIW if the Utah Supreme Court does rule that the legislature can't override the commission, there isn't much the legislature can do about it anytime soon without a constitutional amendment (which would have to pass in another statewide referendum).  Utah Supreme Court justices are nominated by the governor and confirmed by the state senate, equivalent to the federal system.  They can serve for life if they want to, as long as they win retention elections every 10 years.  Also, the number of justices is fixed at 5 in the state constitution.

[Tintrlvr]

Does anyone recall what the commission maps looked like? Or did they not get there? The below seems like the obvious COI map (which has a super-safe D Biden+26 seat), and other reasonable and COI-oriented configurations in Salt Lake County-Utah County feel like they might leave a second seat at risk for the Republicans.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ce9e4ab6-8cf4-497d-930c-945aa90ca86b

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does anyone recall what the commission maps looked like? Or did they not get there? The below seems like the obvious COI map (which has a super-safe D Biden+26 seat), and other reasonable and COI-oriented configurations in Salt Lake County-Utah County feel like they might leave a second seat at risk for the Republicans.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ce9e4ab6-8cf4-497d-930c-945aa90ca86b

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/utah/

Honestly most of the commission plans were pretty wack; Utah isn’t that hard of the state to draw a map for but they try some crazy stuff.

[TML]

Does anyone recall what the commission maps looked like? Or did they not get there? The below seems like the obvious COI map (which has a super-safe D Biden+26 seat), and other reasonable and COI-oriented configurations in Salt Lake County-Utah County feel like they might leave a second seat at risk for the Republicans.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ce9e4ab6-8cf4-497d-930c-945aa90ca86b

The commission produced dozens of maps, and the lion’s share of them had one of the districts containing only SLC and its immediate environs.

[Tintrlvr]

Does anyone recall what the commission maps looked like? Or did they not get there? The below seems like the obvious COI map (which has a super-safe D Biden+26 seat), and other reasonable and COI-oriented configurations in Salt Lake County-Utah County feel like they might leave a second seat at risk for the Republicans.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ce9e4ab6-8cf4-497d-930c-945aa90ca86b

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/utah/

Honestly most of the commission plans were pretty wack; Utah isn’t that hard of the state to draw a map for but they try some crazy stuff.

Other than the obvious partisan gerrymanders (which can be disregarded but the motive for ignoring COIs is pretty straightforward), all of the maps contain some WTF factor to them, when doing so is totally unnecessary. Strange.

[Oryxslayer]

Does anyone recall what the commission maps looked like? Or did they not get there? The below seems like the obvious COI map (which has a super-safe D Biden+26 seat), and other reasonable and COI-oriented configurations in Salt Lake County-Utah County feel like they might leave a second seat at risk for the Republicans.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ce9e4ab6-8cf4-497d-930c-945aa90ca86b

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/utah/

Honestly most of the commission plans were pretty wack; Utah isn’t that hard of the state to draw a map for but they try some crazy stuff.

Other than the obvious partisan gerrymanders (which can be disregarded but the motive for ignoring COIs is pretty straightforward), all of the maps contain some WTF factor to them, when doing so is totally unnecessary. Strange.

I suspect it mostly has to do with mountain rages and lack of road connections in many areas. Like all counties north of Weber + Davis is 328 people above ideal, but to get the population to zero you have to cut a municipality in Davis. The geographic hurdles are not kind: no roads from Toole to Box Elder, none from Rich to Morgan, and 1 from Morgan to Weber. Which then sends you looking for alternatives that make the cuts more reasonable, and ends up without a district nested whole within SLC.

[Sol]

Does anyone recall what the commission maps looked like? Or did they not get there? The below seems like the obvious COI map (which has a super-safe D Biden+26 seat), and other reasonable and COI-oriented configurations in Salt Lake County-Utah County feel like they might leave a second seat at risk for the Republicans.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ce9e4ab6-8cf4-497d-930c-945aa90ca86b

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/utah/

Honestly most of the commission plans were pretty wack; Utah isn’t that hard of the state to draw a map for but they try some crazy stuff.

Other than the obvious partisan gerrymanders (which can be disregarded but the motive for ignoring COIs is pretty straightforward), all of the maps contain some WTF factor to them, when doing so is totally unnecessary. Strange.

I suspect it mostly has to do with mountain rages and lack of road connections in many areas. Like all counties north of Weber + Davis is 328 people above ideal, but to get the population to zero you have to cut a municipality in Davis. The geographic hurdles are not kind: no roads from Toole to Box Elder, none from Rich to Morgan, and 1 from Morgan to Weber. Which then sends you looking for alternatives that make the cuts more reasonable, and ends up without a district nested whole within SLC.

I know Morgan is technically connected to Summit, but how robust is that connection really? Splitting Davis may be the lesser evil, especially since southern Davis is still very much suburban SLC.

[Tintrlvr]

Does anyone recall what the commission maps looked like? Or did they not get there? The below seems like the obvious COI map (which has a super-safe D Biden+26 seat), and other reasonable and COI-oriented configurations in Salt Lake County-Utah County feel like they might leave a second seat at risk for the Republicans.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ce9e4ab6-8cf4-497d-930c-945aa90ca86b

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/utah/

Honestly most of the commission plans were pretty wack; Utah isn’t that hard of the state to draw a map for but they try some crazy stuff.

Other than the obvious partisan gerrymanders (which can be disregarded but the motive for ignoring COIs is pretty straightforward), all of the maps contain some WTF factor to them, when doing so is totally unnecessary. Strange.

I suspect it mostly has to do with mountain rages and lack of road connections in many areas. Like all counties north of Weber + Davis is 328 people above ideal, but to get the population to zero you have to cut a municipality in Davis. The geographic hurdles are not kind: no roads from Toole to Box Elder, none from Rich to Morgan, and 1 from Morgan to Weber. Which then sends you looking for alternatives that make the cuts more reasonable, and ends up without a district nested whole within SLC.

But you cited the exact perfect alignment - Davis-Weber-Box Elder-Cache-Rich is a perfect seat. Being 328 people above ideal just means a teeny-tiny split into Davis from Salt Lake (if you are actually going for perfect population equality, outside of maybe Iowa you'll always have to split counties) - or, alternatively, accepting districts that are very close in population but not 100% equal: There's no legal basis on which a 328-person deviation could ever be challenged.

Instead, the maps tend to rely on weird violations of what you cited above. For example, there are multiple commission maps that mostly look reasonable but put Tooele with the northern counties for no good reason (e.g., Orange 3-3, the best one IMO, or Purple 4-1 and Purple 2-3 (both of these have other weird stuff going on too)).

Purple 3-3 is the only one that draws a basically sane rendition of northern Utah, but then does weird things with the southern two districts. (I sort of understand; they seem to be trying to keep suburban Salt Lake County and Utah County in separate districts, presumably to favor incumbents.)