Utah 2020 Redistricting
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Author Topic: Utah 2020 Redistricting  (Read 9561 times)
Roll Roons
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« Reply #125 on: November 05, 2021, 11:32:00 PM »

What's the partisanship of all of those districts?
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Stuart98
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« Reply #126 on: November 05, 2021, 11:40:30 PM »

DRA links to them all.

State House
State Senate
State Board of Education
Congressional

Congressional is about as disgusting as a plan as they could possibly have done. Efficiency gap with 2020 president numbers for it is 27.94; I've never seen DRA spit out a number that high. Bluest district is Trump +16.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #127 on: November 05, 2021, 11:48:09 PM »

As I expected, the commission was useless. Although I'm sure you say it coming Stuart98, it's not a good feeling when you feel government fails you. It's probably the main reason I've never invested myself too much in the actual affairs of government. I will always hope and try for the best, but my idealism died with the 2010 midterms.
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #128 on: November 05, 2021, 11:56:46 PM »

If there's such a concern for having a mix of urban and rural representation in each district, why not consider map SH2? It achieves that goal, only splits SL County once, and is much more fair from a partisan standpoint.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #129 on: November 06, 2021, 12:01:07 AM »

If there's such a concern for having a mix of urban and rural representation in each district, why not consider map SH2? It achieves that goal, only splits SL County once, and is much more fair from a partisan standpoint.
Reasons the legislature didn't adopt my map are in bold.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #130 on: November 06, 2021, 12:41:21 AM »

If there's such a concern for having a mix of urban and rural representation in each district, why not consider map SH2? It achieves that goal, only splits SL County once, and is much more fair from a partisan standpoint.
Reasons the legislature didn't adopt my map are in bold.

Unfortunately, the reasons are that they did not benefit the Republican Party.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #131 on: November 06, 2021, 05:57:31 AM »

Utterly shameless.

Is it impossible for Utah voters to pass a redistricting commission with actual teeth next time?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #132 on: November 06, 2021, 07:19:22 AM »

Utterly shameless.

Is it impossible for Utah voters to pass a redistricting commission with actual teeth next time?

Nope. Only initiated statutes are allowed by ballot initiative in Utah, and there are no rules on how or when the legislature can modify them. So essentially voters can get a bill passed but the legislature can immediately gut or fully repeal it. They did modify this initiative after passage.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #133 on: November 06, 2021, 07:34:22 PM »

Utterly shameless.

Is it impossible for Utah voters to pass a redistricting commission with actual teeth next time?

Nope. Only initiated statutes are allowed by ballot initiative in Utah, and there are no rules on how or when the legislature can modify them. So essentially voters can get a bill passed but the legislature can immediately gut or fully repeal it. They did modify this initiative after passage.

I am generally pretty realistic when it comes to redistricting, when given the chance both sides will gerrymander to their hearts content, but gutting a citizen referendum to split Salt Lake county 4  ways is probably the low for this redistricting cycle.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #134 on: November 06, 2021, 07:48:11 PM »
« Edited: November 06, 2021, 07:55:00 PM by Virginiá »

I am generally pretty realistic when it comes to redistricting, when given the chance both sides will gerrymander to their hearts content, but gutting a citizen referendum to split Salt Lake county 4  ways is probably the low for this redistricting cycle.

Maybe I'm just more jaded, but it doesn't surprise me at all. I figured this entire thing was DOA either via full repeal years ago, which didn't happen, or by eventually ignoring it, which did.

Republicans declared a "legislative emergency" in South Dakota just to repeal the 2016 anti-corruption initiative. Missouri Republicans packed a repeal of the redistricting reform with a near-useless provisions lowering lobbyist/campaign contribution limits, when the previous amendment already lowered them significantly so mislead what the amendment was really about.

Redistricting is the one area that brings out the absolute worst in parties. You'll never see partisan lawmakers become more cutthroat than the start of a new decade. Very few exceptions, the latest probably being Virginia's reform amendment, a rare moment of ethical concern (albeit in favor of a badly designed amendment) in a situation rife with self-interest and partisan concerns.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #135 on: November 06, 2021, 08:39:20 PM »
« Edited: November 06, 2021, 08:55:45 PM by lfromnj »

I am generally pretty realistic when it comes to redistricting, when given the chance both sides will gerrymander to their hearts content, but gutting a citizen referendum to split Salt Lake county 4  ways is probably the low for this redistricting cycle.

Maybe I'm just more jaded, but it doesn't surprise me at all. I figured this entire thing was DOA either via full repeal years ago, which didn't happen, or by eventually ignoring it, which did.

Republicans declared a "legislative emergency" in South Dakota just to repeal the 2016 anti-corruption initiative. Missouri Republicans packed a repeal of the redistricting reform with a near-useless provisions lowering lobbyist/campaign contribution limits, when the previous amendment already lowered them significantly so mislead what the amendment was really about.

Redistricting is the one area that brings out the absolute worst in parties. You'll never see partisan lawmakers become more cutthroat than the start of a new decade. Very few exceptions, the latest probably being Virginia's reform amendment, a rare moment of ethical concern (albeit in favor of a badly designed amendment) in a situation rife with self-interest and partisan concerns.

The Missouri Amendment merely prevented Nicole Galloway from gerrymandering the legislative districts. The original amendment came through the same means with Democrats( or "non partisan" groups like the AFL- CIO)pushing it as campaign finance reform but the main goal being to gerrymander the districts. Missouri Republicans merely fought back against it.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #136 on: November 06, 2021, 09:24:29 PM »

If the goal is to make the most Democratic district as Republican as possible.  Trying to cluster the four seats as close to the statewide margin as possible seems to be their goal.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #137 on: November 06, 2021, 09:43:47 PM »

Another thing I noticed. Burgess Owens is going to be in the most Republican seat in the state on the new map.
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andjey
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« Reply #138 on: November 07, 2021, 05:43:23 AM »

I'm interested to hear your thoughts. If Ben McAdams had won last year's election, would the redistricting have been the same, or would a Safe D seat have been created?
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beesley
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« Reply #139 on: November 07, 2021, 07:56:58 AM »

Another thing I noticed. Burgess Owens is going to be in the most Republican seat in the state on the new map.

This was never that unlikely - even if they did at 3R 1D map, it would be Stewart who would probably be displaced.
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bagelman
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« Reply #140 on: November 07, 2021, 10:03:36 AM »

I'm interested to hear your thoughts. If Ben McAdams had won last year's election, would the redistricting have been the same, or would a Safe D seat have been created?

They would have a different way of going about it but unless McAdams won by 20 points or something they would still go 4R.
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« Reply #141 on: November 08, 2021, 07:46:54 PM »

Looking at the map, to me it honestly seems like UT-3 is destined to trend leftwards most over the coming decade, combining fast-growing suburban areas where Republicans have much room to fall with some slow-growing rural areas. Dems aren't exactly maxed out in terms of margins.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #142 on: November 08, 2021, 07:56:46 PM »

I'm interested to hear your thoughts. If Ben McAdams had won last year's election, would the redistricting have been the same, or would a Safe D seat have been created?

Doubt it would've changed much.   They did the same thing in 2010 with Matheson and he won in 2010.  He was a much more entrenched incumbent too.
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #143 on: November 08, 2021, 08:15:44 PM »

Committee decides to sodomize the UIRC and advance their God awful gerrymander.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #144 on: November 08, 2021, 10:02:59 PM »

Primary all the utah legislative democrats tbh; none have the spine to stand up for the independent commission. Don't support the congressional map the committee passed but their symbolic protest vote was for one of their own maps that's objectively worse than the commission maps. Additionally, they support the the varying degrees of gerrymanders the committee passed/is about to pass for state board of education, senate, and house.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #145 on: November 09, 2021, 06:06:43 AM »

Looking at the map, to me it honestly seems like UT-3 is destined to trend leftwards most over the coming decade, combining fast-growing suburban areas where Republicans have much room to fall with some slow-growing rural areas. Dems aren't exactly maxed out in terms of margins.

lmao who gives a sh*t, they're all Safe R and will remain so even after a decade's worth of trend
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #146 on: November 09, 2021, 10:46:27 AM »

Utah will be reverse RGV, this will be the one glorious thing to watch.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #147 on: November 09, 2021, 10:16:50 PM »

Unsurprisingly (but again disappointingly), Cox will not veto the maps.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #148 on: November 10, 2021, 01:50:09 PM »

Map passes in the senate with one Republican dissenter. 6 total legislative republicans seem to have a conscience.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #149 on: November 10, 2021, 01:51:01 PM »

Map passes in the senate with one Republican dissenter. 6 total legislative republicans seem to have a conscience.

Where are they from?

It could just be not a particular care for SLC but rather the rural areas.
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