At this point, which electoral map is more likely?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 16, 2024, 08:44:22 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  At this point, which electoral map is more likely?		 « previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Poll
Question: Which map is more likely?
#1
Map #1		  
#2
Map #2		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 116

Author Topic: At this point, which electoral map is more likely?  (Read 3261 times)
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,419
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 21, 2020, 06:28:25 PM »
« edited: July 21, 2020, 06:39:57 PM by Ferguson97 »
Map #1



Joe Biden: 413 EVs
Donald Trump: 125 EVs

Map #2



Joe Biden: 268 EVs
Donald Trump: 270 EVs
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2020, 06:31:53 PM »
Map #1. Flip Iowa, and that's basically my prediction right now.

At this point, Biden has a better chance of winning Texas than Trump has of winning Florida.
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2020, 06:33:16 PM »
Did you mean to flip Texas on the first map? Otherwise that's not 413 EVs
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,419
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 21, 2020, 06:40:08 PM »
Quote from: 334 Freiwal on July 21, 2020, 06:33:16 PM
Did you mean to flip Texas on the first map? Otherwise that's not 413 EVs

I did yes thank you
Logged
Rep Jessica
Jessica
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 831
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 21, 2020, 06:44:07 PM »
2!
Logged
Ancestral Republican
Crane
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,061
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -8.16, S: 3.22

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 21, 2020, 06:45:14 PM »
2, but I believe he Biden will win Iowa, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.
Logged
Hammy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,702
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 21, 2020, 06:45:50 PM »
#2 is literally my expectation when voter scrubbing is taken into consideration, save for ME-2.
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,671
Bhutan


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 21, 2020, 06:53:43 PM »
Map 1.
Logged
Ancestral Republican
Crane
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,061
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -8.16, S: 3.22

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 21, 2020, 06:55:34 PM »
Quote from: Hammy on July 21, 2020, 06:45:50 PM
#2 is literally my expectation when voter scrubbing is taken into consideration, save for ME-2.

So, you're predicting a EC tie?
Logged
HagridOfTheDeep
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,766
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 21, 2020, 07:03:35 PM »
Map 2. Flirtations with a candidate in July do not mean much. Map 2 is much more representative of the country's cultural baseline. Obviously I think the final results will be better for Biden than a 2-EV loss (add Florida, Wisconsin, and Arizona), but I'll believe an electoral college landslide like Map 1's when I see it.
Logged
Mexican Wolf
Timberwolf
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,349


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 21, 2020, 07:13:53 PM »
Map 2, only because I don't think Biden will end up flipping that many states if he wins. I think his uppermost range of electoral votes would be between 350 and 380.
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,003
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 21, 2020, 07:22:24 PM »
« Edited: July 21, 2020, 07:50:24 PM by brucejoel99 »
Map #1 is literally my prediction rn
Logged
Pericles
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,217


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 21, 2020, 07:43:19 PM »
Isn't Map #1 basically the current polling map (maybe shifted by under 1% to Biden)?
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,922
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 21, 2020, 07:53:07 PM »
Quote from: HagridOfTheDeep on July 21, 2020, 07:03:35 PM
Map 2. Flirtations with a candidate in July do not mean much. Map 2 is much more representative of the country's cultural baseline. Obviously I think the final results will be better for Biden than a 2-EV loss (add Florida, Wisconsin, and Arizona), but I'll believe an electoral college landslide like Map 1's when I see it.

It is not so much a flirtation with Biden as it is a rejection of Trump.
Logged
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 21, 2020, 09:54:28 PM »
probably closer to 2 as things will tighten, but I don't think Trump will do that well.  Probably map 2 + 2 or 3 more states for Biden.
Logged
Yoda
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,215
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 21, 2020, 10:02:42 PM »
Quote from: 334 Freiwal on July 21, 2020, 06:31:53 PM
Map #1. Flip Iowa, and that's basically my prediction right now.

At this point, Biden has a better chance of winning Texas than Trump has of winning Florida.

I was literally just on The Economist's election forecast page and noticed this! They have Biden at 83% chance to win Florida and Trump 71% chance to win Texas. Awesome stat.
Logged
S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,441
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: July 22, 2020, 02:05:57 AM »
The 1st one, and it isn't even that close, Trump is losing badly, and he knows it.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,490
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: July 22, 2020, 09:19:31 AM »
Option 1, Ds are ahead in OH
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,328
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: July 22, 2020, 11:29:35 AM »
Map 1 would be more likely if the election were held today, but I think Map 2 (if ME-02 is flipped) is more likely in November. I have a hard time seeing IA and OH flipping, even if Biden is having a great night.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,128
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: July 22, 2020, 11:34:35 AM »
Map #1, but neither will happen.
Logged
SaneDemocrat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,341


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: July 22, 2020, 11:36:48 AM »
2. Come on people.
Logged
SnowLabrador
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,226
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: July 22, 2020, 11:41:07 AM »
Map 2.
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,003
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: July 22, 2020, 12:00:25 PM »

You omitted a comma, because that sentence as is means something very different from what you presumably intended.
Logged
SaneDemocrat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,341


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: July 22, 2020, 02:05:04 PM »
Quote from: brucejoel99 on July 22, 2020, 12:00:25 PM

You omitted a comma, because that sentence as is means something very different from what you presumably intended.

You got me but sadly I think Trump has a 25 percent chance of winning and map 1 has a 15 percent chance of winning
Logged
Storr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,420
Moldova, Republic of


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: July 22, 2020, 02:09:46 PM »
#2. Mostly because I'm still weary after what happened in 2016.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.051 seconds with 15 queries.